SM
SM Energy Company Energy - Oil & Gas E&P Investor Relations →
SM Energy Company (SM) closed at $38.10 as of 2026-09-11, trading 19.9% above its 200-week moving average of $31.78. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 14.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 62, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.95 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1712 weeks of data, SM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +34.2%.
With a market cap of $9.1 billion, SM is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 16.2%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 16.1%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.2x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.0% over the past three years.
Over the past 32.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SM would have grown to $1317, compared to $2951 for the S&P 500. SM has returned 8.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -12.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: SM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 24 historical episodes, buying SM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +32.8% after 12 months (median +35.0%), compared to +14.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 83% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +61.3% vs +34.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices SM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where SM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-02.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $22.40 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $25.14 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $28.65 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $33.29 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $39.72 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $1.95 | $2.19 | +12.1% |
| 2026-05-06 | $1.13 | $1.55 | +37.8% |
| 2026-02-25 | $0.83 | $0.83 | +0.2% |
| 2025-11-03 | $1.25 | $1.33 | +6.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from SM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
SM has crossed below its 200-week MA 25 times with an average 1-year return of +34.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1993 | Jan 1994 | 4 | 13.8% | +6.5% | +1518.6% |
| Feb 1994 | Oct 1994 | 36 | 18.4% | +0.3% | +1321.6% |
| Nov 1994 | Dec 1994 | 4 | 9.3% | +13.9% | +1499.3% |
| Mar 1995 | May 1995 | 9 | 8.8% | +14.4% | +1430.9% |
| May 1995 | Jul 1995 | 6 | 15.9% | +37.8% | +1396.1% |
| Jul 1995 | Sep 1995 | 7 | 5.3% | +34.9% | +1441.5% |
| Oct 1995 | Oct 1995 | 1 | 0.4% | +43.9% | +1362.9% |
| Jul 1998 | Jul 1999 | 53 | 31.3% | +10.1% | +790.9% |
| Nov 1999 | Dec 1999 | 3 | 16.0% | +118.4% | +680.1% |
| Jan 2000 | Jan 2000 | 2 | 8.1% | +161.4% | +697.1% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 1 | 0.2% | +49.4% | +470.6% |
| Sep 2008 | Oct 2009 | 53 | 67.6% | +1.4% | +46.2% |
| Oct 2009 | Dec 2009 | 7 | 10.6% | +22.5% | +29.4% |
| Jan 2010 | Mar 2010 | 5 | 6.1% | +84.0% | +37.7% |
| Mar 2010 | Mar 2010 | 1 | 0.5% | +116.8% | +31.4% |
| Jun 2012 | Jun 2012 | 1 | 1.8% | +34.2% | -3.5% |
| Jul 2012 | Aug 2012 | 1 | 5.6% | +60.3% | -0.4% |
| Aug 2012 | Aug 2012 | 1 | 0.6% | +47.2% | -6.3% |
| Nov 2012 | Nov 2012 | 1 | 0.1% | +86.9% | -10.5% |
| Dec 2012 | Dec 2012 | 1 | 4.2% | +67.8% | -7.8% |
| Oct 2014 | Aug 2018 | 202 | 85.5% | -31.9% | -28.2% |
| Sep 2018 | Sep 2018 | 1 | 0.4% | -64.3% | +50.3% |
| Oct 2018 | Mar 2021 | 123 | 94.2% | -66.9% | +70.3% |
| Feb 2025 | Jul 2026 | 74 | 47.7% | -28.6% | +17.5% |
| Aug 2026 | Aug 2026 | 1 | 10.0% | N/A | +32.7% |
| Average | 24 | — | +34.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SM below its 200-week moving average?
No. SM Energy Company (SM) is currently 19.9% above its 200-week moving average of $31.78. It would need to fall to $31.78 to cross below the line.
What is SM's 200-week moving average price?
SM Energy Company's 200-week moving average is $31.78 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when SM drops below its 200-week moving average?
SM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +34.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is SM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about SM as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 62. Free cash flow yield is 16.2%. Return on equity is 16.1%. Price-to-book is 1.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does SM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32.9 years, $100 invested in SM would have grown to $1317, compared to $2951 for the S&P 500. That's 8.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. SM has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does SM pay a dividend?
Yes. SM Energy Company currently pays a dividend yield of 230.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11