SLVM
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Sylvamo Corporation (SLVM) closed at $35.29 as of 2026-09-11, trading 30.1% below its 200-week moving average of $50.52. This places SLVM in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -28.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 42, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.12 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 211 weeks of data, SLVM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SLVM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +37.1%.
With a market cap of $1403 million, SLVM is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 7.9%. The stock trades at 1.5x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.4% over the past three years.
Over the past 4.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SLVM would have grown to $93, compared to $204 for the S&P 500. SLVM has returned -1.7% annualized vs 18.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -46.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: SLVM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SLVM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 4 historical episodes, buying SLVM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +37.0% after 12 months (median +32.0%), compared to +22.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +87.0% vs +56.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SLVM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. SLVM currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | $0.07 | $0.03 | -57.1% |
| 2026-05-08 | $-0.27 | $-0.53 | -96.3% |
| 2026-02-12 | $1.06 | $1.08 | +1.9% |
| 2025-11-07 | $1.47 | $1.44 | -2.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from SLVM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
SLVM has crossed below its 200-week MA 4 times with an average 1-year return of +37.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 2 | 4.0% | +23.7% | +13.9% |
| Aug 2023 | Aug 2023 | 1 | 3.1% | +105.8% | +1.7% |
| Jul 2025 | Jan 2026 | 26 | 19.3% | -18.2% | -24.7% |
| Jan 2026 | Ongoing | 33+ | 30.2% | Ongoing | -26.3% |
| Average | 16 | — | +37.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SLVM below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-11, Sylvamo Corporation (SLVM) is trading 30.1% below its 200-week moving average of $50.52. The current price is $35.29.
What is SLVM's 200-week moving average price?
Sylvamo Corporation's 200-week moving average is $50.52 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when SLVM drops below its 200-week moving average?
SLVM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +37.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is SLVM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about SLVM as of 2026-09-11: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 42. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 7.9%. Price-to-book is 1.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does SLVM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 4.2 years, $100 invested in SLVM would have grown to $93, compared to $204 for the S&P 500. That's -1.7% annualized vs 18.7% for the index. SLVM has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does SLVM pay a dividend?
Yes. Sylvamo Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 510.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11