SIRI
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. Communication Services - Radio Investor Relations → Deep dive →
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) closed at $29.62 as of 2026-07-31, trading 5.6% below its 200-week moving average of $31.36. This places SIRI in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -5.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 63, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.28 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1615 weeks of data, SIRI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times. On average, these episodes lasted 27 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SIRI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +46.5%.
With a market cap of $10.0 billion, SIRI is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 12.1%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 7.6%. The stock trades at 0.8x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 13.9% over the past three years.
Over the past 31 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SIRI would have grown to $108, compared to $2267 for the S&P 500. SIRI has returned 0.2% annualized vs 10.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $106,454,379. Notably, these purchases occurred while SIRI is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -7.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: SIRI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SIRI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 25 historical episodes, buying SIRI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +36.4% after 12 months (median +2.0%), compared to +17.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 60% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +86.2% vs +26.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SIRI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices SIRI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where SIRI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $22.90 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $24.41 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $26.12 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $28.10 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $30.39 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from SIRI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
SIRI has crossed below its 200-week MA 25 times with an average 1-year return of +46.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1995 | Sep 1995 | 2 | 3.0% | +132.7% | +9.6% |
| Oct 1995 | Dec 1995 | 7 | 13.7% | +65.5% | +3.9% |
| Jan 1996 | Feb 1996 | 5 | 11.1% | +92.3% | +15.9% |
| Oct 1996 | Nov 1996 | 1 | 2.1% | +317.1% | -26.5% |
| Nov 1996 | Jan 1997 | 7 | 23.8% | +349.3% | -12.7% |
| Feb 1997 | Feb 1997 | 1 | 2.6% | +247.6% | -26.5% |
| Nov 2000 | Dec 2000 | 4 | 21.3% | -74.3% | -86.2% |
| Jan 2001 | Nov 2004 | 198 | 98.0% | -76.2% | -87.4% |
| Aug 2006 | Aug 2006 | 1 | 0.9% | -21.0% | -0.1% |
| Oct 2006 | Nov 2006 | 5 | 5.9% | -11.3% | -3.2% |
| Dec 2006 | Dec 2010 | 211 | 97.3% | -4.7% | -0.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 6 | 21.4% | +38.2% | -19.0% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 2 | 6.8% | +11.8% | -32.8% |
| Jun 2020 | Jul 2020 | 3 | 3.5% | +18.8% | -35.2% |
| Aug 2020 | Nov 2020 | 9 | 12.3% | +11.8% | -37.4% |
| Jan 2021 | Jan 2021 | 2 | 2.4% | +6.0% | -39.5% |
| Feb 2021 | Mar 2021 | 2 | 1.8% | +10.6% | -39.1% |
| May 2021 | May 2021 | 2 | 1.6% | +9.2% | -39.8% |
| Aug 2021 | Aug 2021 | 1 | 0.4% | +18.3% | -41.2% |
| Sep 2021 | Nov 2021 | 8 | 1.2% | +9.9% | -40.9% |
| Jan 2022 | Jan 2022 | 1 | 1.6% | +2.3% | -41.2% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 2 | 2.1% | -29.2% | -42.0% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 2 | 0.2% | -4.3% | -42.5% |
| Jan 2023 | Dec 2023 | 48 | 38.0% | -5.2% | -42.5% |
| Jan 2024 | Ongoing | 134+ | 56.2% | Ongoing | -36.9% |
| Average | 27 | — | +46.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SIRI below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) is trading 5.6% below its 200-week moving average of $31.36. The current price is $29.62.
What is SIRI's 200-week moving average price?
Sirius XM Holdings Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $31.36 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when SIRI drops below its 200-week moving average?
SIRI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +46.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 27 weeks on average.
Is SIRI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about SIRI as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 63. Free cash flow yield is 12.1%. Return on equity is 7.6%. Price-to-book is 0.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does SIRI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 31 years, $100 invested in SIRI would have grown to $108, compared to $2267 for the S&P 500. That's 0.2% annualized vs 10.6% for the index. SIRI has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does SIRI pay a dividend?
Yes. Sirius XM Holdings Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 365.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31