SIRI
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. Communication Services - Radio Investor Relations → Deep dive →
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) closed at $27.31 as of 2026-09-18, trading 9.6% below its 200-week moving average of $30.20. This places SIRI in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -3.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 50, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.89 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1622 weeks of data, SIRI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times. On average, these episodes lasted 27 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SIRI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +46.5%.
With a market cap of $9.2 billion, SIRI is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 12.9%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 7.6%. The stock trades at 0.8x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 13.9% over the past three years.
Over the past 31.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SIRI would have grown to $100, compared to $2317 for the S&P 500. SIRI has returned 0.0% annualized vs 10.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -7.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: SIRI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SIRI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 25 historical episodes, buying SIRI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +36.4% after 12 months (median +2.0%), compared to +17.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 60% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +86.2% vs +26.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SIRI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices SIRI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where SIRI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $26.20 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $28.92 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $32.27 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $36.50 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $42.00 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $0.78 | $0.70 | -10.8% |
| 2026-04-30 | $0.71 | $0.74 | +4.6% |
| 2026-02-05 | $0.78 | $0.86 | +10.0% |
| 2025-10-30 | $0.78 | $0.84 | +7.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from SIRI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
SIRI has crossed below its 200-week MA 25 times with an average 1-year return of +46.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1995 | Sep 1995 | 2 | 3.0% | +132.7% | +1.9% |
| Oct 1995 | Dec 1995 | 7 | 13.7% | +65.5% | -3.3% |
| Jan 1996 | Feb 1996 | 5 | 11.1% | +92.3% | +7.8% |
| Oct 1996 | Nov 1996 | 1 | 2.1% | +317.1% | -31.6% |
| Nov 1996 | Jan 1997 | 7 | 23.8% | +349.3% | -18.8% |
| Feb 1997 | Feb 1997 | 1 | 2.6% | +247.6% | -31.6% |
| Nov 2000 | Dec 2000 | 4 | 21.3% | -74.3% | -87.2% |
| Jan 2001 | Nov 2004 | 198 | 98.0% | -76.2% | -88.3% |
| Aug 2006 | Aug 2006 | 1 | 0.9% | -21.0% | -7.1% |
| Oct 2006 | Nov 2006 | 5 | 5.9% | -11.3% | -9.9% |
| Dec 2006 | Dec 2010 | 211 | 97.3% | -4.7% | -7.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 6 | 21.4% | +38.2% | -24.6% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 2 | 6.8% | +11.8% | -37.4% |
| Jun 2020 | Jul 2020 | 3 | 3.5% | +18.8% | -39.7% |
| Aug 2020 | Nov 2020 | 9 | 12.3% | +11.8% | -41.7% |
| Jan 2021 | Jan 2021 | 2 | 2.4% | +6.0% | -43.7% |
| Feb 2021 | Mar 2021 | 2 | 1.8% | +10.6% | -43.3% |
| May 2021 | May 2021 | 2 | 1.6% | +9.2% | -44.0% |
| Aug 2021 | Aug 2021 | 1 | 0.4% | +18.3% | -45.3% |
| Sep 2021 | Nov 2021 | 8 | 1.2% | +9.9% | -45.0% |
| Jan 2022 | Jan 2022 | 1 | 1.6% | +2.3% | -45.3% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 2 | 2.1% | -29.2% | -46.0% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 2 | 0.2% | -4.3% | -46.5% |
| Jan 2023 | Dec 2023 | 48 | 38.0% | -5.2% | -46.5% |
| Jan 2024 | Ongoing | 141+ | 56.2% | Ongoing | -41.3% |
| Average | 27 | — | +46.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SIRI below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) is trading 9.6% below its 200-week moving average of $30.20. The current price is $27.31.
What is SIRI's 200-week moving average price?
Sirius XM Holdings Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $30.20 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when SIRI drops below its 200-week moving average?
SIRI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +46.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 27 weeks on average.
Is SIRI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about SIRI as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 50. Free cash flow yield is 12.9%. Return on equity is 7.6%. Price-to-book is 0.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does SIRI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 31.2 years, $100 invested in SIRI would have grown to $100, compared to $2317 for the S&P 500. That's 0.0% annualized vs 10.6% for the index. SIRI has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does SIRI pay a dividend?
Yes. Sirius XM Holdings Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 395.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18