SHW
The Sherwin-Williams Company Materials - Paints & Coatings Investor Relations →
The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) closed at $320.79 as of 2026-06-19, trading 6.4% above its 200-week moving average of $301.38. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 5.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 51, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.00 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2365 weeks of data, SHW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times. On average, these episodes lasted 7 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SHW at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +33.3%.
With a market cap of $79.1 billion, SHW is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.7%. Return on equity stands at 60.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 17.8x book value.
SHW is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 99.00%. Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 4.3% reduction over three years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SHW would have grown to $10434, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.9% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming SHW as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 27.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: SHW vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SHW Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying SHW when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +17.7% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +8.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 78% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +41.8% vs +21.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SHW crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices SHW would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where SHW's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-21.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $291.96 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $307.26 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $324.25 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $343.23 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $364.57 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from SHW's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
SHW has crossed below its 200-week MA 26 times with an average 1-year return of +33.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1981 | Oct 1981 | 5 | 8.7% | +56.2% | +163421.0% |
| Oct 1981 | Oct 1981 | 1 | 0.6% | +100.0% | +161211.0% |
| Jan 1982 | Feb 1982 | 5 | 1.6% | +117.4% | +160128.5% |
| Mar 1982 | Mar 1982 | 1 | 1.0% | +136.7% | +159060.4% |
| Nov 1987 | Dec 1987 | 1 | 7.0% | +27.1% | +34177.9% |
| Dec 1988 | Jan 1989 | 3 | 1.1% | +28.9% | +27142.4% |
| Jan 1989 | Jan 1989 | 1 | 0.5% | +27.7% | +26877.9% |
| Sep 1998 | Oct 1998 | 5 | 16.7% | +6.7% | +6488.4% |
| Feb 1999 | Mar 1999 | 3 | 7.1% | -23.8% | +5736.0% |
| Aug 1999 | Dec 2000 | 72 | 33.6% | -9.6% | +5461.7% |
| Jan 2001 | Jan 2001 | 2 | 4.5% | +7.8% | +5646.1% |
| Feb 2001 | Feb 2001 | 1 | 5.1% | +9.5% | +5682.4% |
| Mar 2001 | Oct 2001 | 30 | 18.6% | +21.0% | +5555.2% |
| Sep 2002 | Oct 2002 | 3 | 2.2% | +27.6% | +5601.8% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 1 | 0.3% | -12.0% | +2303.7% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 1 | 0.0% | +4.3% | +2286.1% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 6 | 8.7% | +11.0% | +2286.1% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 1 | 1.7% | +23.2% | +2220.2% |
| Jan 2009 | Mar 2009 | 10 | 18.5% | +26.7% | +2417.7% |
| May 2009 | Jun 2009 | 1 | 0.5% | +48.4% | +2108.2% |
| Jun 2009 | Jul 2009 | 2 | 3.9% | +38.6% | +2176.4% |
| Sep 2022 | Nov 2022 | 7 | 8.4% | +21.8% | +57.2% |
| Feb 2023 | Apr 2023 | 9 | 8.2% | +36.9% | +45.3% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 4 | 2.3% | +36.1% | +43.1% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 2 | 2.2% | +64.8% | +38.3% |
| May 2026 | May 2026 | 1 | 0.1% | N/A | +7.2% |
| Average | 7 | — | +33.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SHW below its 200-week moving average?
No. The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) is currently 6.4% above its 200-week moving average of $301.38. It would need to fall to $301.38 to cross below the line.
What is SHW's 200-week moving average price?
The Sherwin-Williams Company's 200-week moving average is $301.38 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when SHW drops below its 200-week moving average?
SHW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +33.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 7 weeks on average.
Is SHW a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about SHW as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 51. Free cash flow yield is 2.7%. Return on equity is 60.7%. Price-to-book is 17.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does SHW compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in SHW would have grown to $10434, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 14.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. SHW has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does SHW pay a dividend?
Yes. The Sherwin-Williams Company currently pays a dividend yield of 99.00%. It is also a Dividend Aristocrat, meaning it has raised its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19