SHOP
Shopify Inc. Technology - E-Commerce Platform Investor Relations →
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) closed at $112.05 as of 2026-02-02, trading 42.1% above its 200-week moving average of $78.84. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 67.0% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 26, SHOP is in oversold territory.
Over the past 511 weeks of data, SHOP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times. On average, these episodes lasted 47 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SHOP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +77.6%.
With a market cap of $146.2 billion, SHOP is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.8%. Return on equity stands at 15.7%, a solid level. The stock trades at 11.7x book value.
Share count has increased 2.8% over three years, indicating dilution. SHOP passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 9.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SHOP would have grown to $3518, compared to $393 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 43.2% vs 14.8% for the index — confirming SHOP as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 48.8% compound annual rate, with 2 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Growth of $100: SHOP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SHOP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 3 historical episodes, buying SHOP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +82.7% after 12 months (median +46.0%), compared to +9.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +161.0% vs +31.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SHOP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
SHOP has crossed below its 200-week MA 3 times with an average 1-year return of +77.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2016 | Jun 2016 | 6 | 9.4% | +208.5% | +3942.2% |
| Feb 2022 | Jan 2024 | 102 | 64.9% | -33.6% | +70.6% |
| Feb 2024 | Sep 2024 | 32 | 32.1% | +57.9% | +37.8% |
| Average | 47 | — | +77.6% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02