SHOO
Steven Madden, Ltd. Consumer Discretionary - Footwear Investor Relations →
Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) closed at $42.93 as of 2026-09-11, trading 20.9% above its 200-week moving average of $35.51. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 22.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 49, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.07 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1660 weeks of data, SHOO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 32 times. On average, these episodes lasted 10 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SHOO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +46.5%.
With a market cap of $3.1 billion, SHOO is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.0%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 15.9%, a solid level. The stock trades at 3.3x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.4% over the past three years. SHOO passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 31.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SHOO would have grown to $8605, compared to $2925 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.0% vs 11.2% for the index — confirming SHOO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -21.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: SHOO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SHOO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 32 historical episodes, buying SHOO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +49.3% after 12 months (median +35.0%), compared to +14.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +79.4% vs +30.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SHOO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices SHOO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where SHOO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $40.60 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $42.08 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $43.68 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $45.41 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $47.28 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $0.33 | $0.44 | +34.3% |
| 2026-05-06 | $0.37 | $0.45 | +20.1% |
| 2026-02-25 | $0.47 | $0.48 | +1.4% |
| 2025-11-05 | $0.45 | $0.43 | -3.5% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from SHOO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
SHOO has crossed below its 200-week MA 32 times with an average 1-year return of +46.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1996 | Dec 1996 | 25 | 35.6% | -5.7% | +7416.9% |
| Dec 1996 | Feb 1997 | 6 | 5.1% | +46.3% | +7875.2% |
| Feb 1997 | Jun 1997 | 17 | 33.8% | +80.2% | +7973.7% |
| Sep 1998 | Sep 1998 | 1 | 7.0% | +110.2% | +6573.2% |
| Sep 1998 | Oct 1998 | 3 | 40.4% | +112.6% | +6783.9% |
| Nov 1998 | Nov 1998 | 1 | 7.0% | +101.0% | +6505.7% |
| Jun 2000 | Aug 2000 | 9 | 28.3% | +148.4% | +6128.3% |
| Sep 2000 | Jan 2001 | 16 | 27.3% | +17.7% | +4638.9% |
| Sep 2001 | Nov 2001 | 8 | 20.8% | +73.1% | +4436.4% |
| Oct 2004 | Nov 2004 | 5 | 6.8% | +51.7% | +2330.0% |
| Feb 2005 | May 2005 | 13 | 10.4% | +98.7% | +2317.1% |
| Sep 2007 | Oct 2007 | 5 | 15.1% | +49.6% | +1263.8% |
| Dec 2007 | Jul 2008 | 30 | 26.0% | -3.5% | +1131.8% |
| Sep 2008 | Apr 2009 | 29 | 38.6% | +57.4% | +1023.6% |
| Jul 2009 | Jul 2009 | 1 | 1.3% | +103.0% | +949.0% |
| Nov 2015 | Feb 2016 | 14 | 11.7% | +27.3% | +144.5% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 2 | 5.3% | +15.3% | +136.9% |
| Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | 2 | 0.3% | +14.6% | +123.4% |
| Sep 2016 | Sep 2016 | 2 | 1.6% | +24.0% | +124.2% |
| Oct 2016 | Oct 2016 | 3 | 4.3% | +19.4% | +120.8% |
| Jan 2017 | Jan 2017 | 1 | 0.7% | +33.3% | +118.5% |
| Jan 2017 | Feb 2017 | 2 | 3.0% | +39.9% | +123.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 36 | 34.5% | +41.9% | +76.2% |
| Jun 2022 | Nov 2022 | 23 | 20.8% | +6.9% | +44.9% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 7 | 6.6% | +22.2% | +43.0% |
| Feb 2023 | Feb 2023 | 1 | 0.2% | +27.4% | +39.4% |
| May 2023 | Jul 2023 | 12 | 8.1% | +23.6% | +42.0% |
| Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | 7 | 7.1% | +46.3% | +44.4% |
| Feb 2025 | Feb 2025 | 1 | 0.4% | -1.3% | +20.5% |
| Feb 2025 | Oct 2025 | 33 | 45.6% | +13.1% | +36.7% |
| Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 | 1 | 1.1% | N/A | +29.3% |
| Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | 5 | 8.4% | N/A | +28.7% |
| Average | 10 | — | +46.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SHOO below its 200-week moving average?
No. Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) is currently 20.9% above its 200-week moving average of $35.51. It would need to fall to $35.51 to cross below the line.
What is SHOO's 200-week moving average price?
Steven Madden, Ltd.'s 200-week moving average is $35.51 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when SHOO drops below its 200-week moving average?
SHOO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 32 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +46.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 10 weeks on average.
Is SHOO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about SHOO as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 49. Free cash flow yield is 7.0%. Return on equity is 15.9%. Price-to-book is 3.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does SHOO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 31.9 years, $100 invested in SHOO would have grown to $8605, compared to $2925 for the S&P 500. That's 15.0% annualized vs 11.2% for the index. SHOO has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does SHOO pay a dividend?
Yes. Steven Madden, Ltd. currently pays a dividend yield of 202.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11