SHEL
Shell plc Energy - Oil & Gas Investor Relations →
Shell plc (SHEL) closed at $91.98 as of 2026-07-31, trading 43.4% above its 200-week moving average of $64.13. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 38.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 55, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.82 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2163 weeks of data, SHEL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SHEL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +12.9%.
With a market cap of $254.5 billion, SHEL is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.1%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 10.7%. The stock trades at 1.5x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 18.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SHEL would have grown to $2009, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. SHEL has returned 9.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -19.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: SHEL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SHEL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying SHEL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +6.8% after 12 months (median +7.0%), compared to +5.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 58% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +23.8% vs +17.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SHEL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices SHEL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where SHEL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $72.42 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $81.35 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $92.78 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $107.95 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $129.04 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from SHEL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
SHEL has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +12.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1985 | Mar 1985 | 1 | 3.2% | +41.1% | +24358.2% |
| Oct 1985 | Nov 1985 | 1 | 7.8% | +107.3% | +23903.6% |
| Jan 1999 | Feb 1999 | 1 | 3.1% | +38.6% | +711.1% |
| Sep 2001 | Mar 2002 | 24 | 17.6% | -5.1% | +586.4% |
| Apr 2002 | Apr 2002 | 4 | 4.4% | -17.8% | +470.7% |
| Jun 2002 | Jun 2002 | 2 | 3.7% | -1.3% | +481.7% |
| Jul 2002 | Dec 2003 | 74 | 25.4% | -2.7% | +509.1% |
| Jan 2004 | Feb 2004 | 5 | 3.3% | +24.2% | +494.7% |
| Mar 2004 | Mar 2004 | 2 | 3.1% | +41.9% | +494.0% |
| Sep 2008 | Oct 2009 | 58 | 32.8% | -5.3% | +266.1% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 1 | 1.1% | +15.8% | +262.1% |
| Dec 2009 | Dec 2009 | 2 | 2.3% | +16.0% | +257.8% |
| Jan 2010 | Mar 2010 | 10 | 8.9% | +26.5% | +268.4% |
| May 2010 | Sep 2010 | 19 | 13.7% | +38.0% | +280.5% |
| Dec 2014 | Dec 2014 | 1 | 2.1% | -23.8% | +163.4% |
| Jan 2015 | Feb 2015 | 1 | 3.8% | -23.8% | +167.2% |
| Mar 2015 | Apr 2015 | 8 | 9.2% | -15.7% | +165.1% |
| May 2015 | Dec 2016 | 82 | 34.2% | -13.4% | +160.5% |
| Feb 2017 | May 2017 | 11 | 3.2% | +30.3% | +168.6% |
| Jan 2020 | Oct 2021 | 88 | 52.0% | -25.7% | +127.3% |
| Oct 2021 | Jan 2022 | 10 | 7.6% | +25.9% | +138.9% |
| Average | 19 | — | +12.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SHEL below its 200-week moving average?
No. Shell plc (SHEL) is currently 43.4% above its 200-week moving average of $64.13. It would need to fall to $64.13 to cross below the line.
What is SHEL's 200-week moving average price?
Shell plc's 200-week moving average is $64.13 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when SHEL drops below its 200-week moving average?
SHEL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +12.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is SHEL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about SHEL as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 55. Free cash flow yield is 6.1%. Return on equity is 10.7%. Price-to-book is 1.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does SHEL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in SHEL would have grown to $2009, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 9.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. SHEL has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does SHEL pay a dividend?
Yes. Shell plc currently pays a dividend yield of 354.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31