SFNC
Simmons First National Corporation Financial Services - Banking Investor Relations →
Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC) closed at $22.89 as of 2026-09-18, trading 25.3% above its 200-week moving average of $18.27. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 25.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 57, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.29 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2118 weeks of data, SFNC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 36 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SFNC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +5.2%.
With a market cap of $3.3 billion, SFNC is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at -9.9%. The stock trades at 0.9x book value.
Share count has increased 13.9% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SFNC would have grown to $1504, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. SFNC has returned 8.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 12.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: SFNC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SFNC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 35 historical episodes, buying SFNC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +6.3% after 12 months (median +5.0%), compared to +9.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 59% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +19.8% vs +27.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SFNC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices SFNC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where SFNC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-15.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $21.82 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $22.92 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $24.13 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $25.48 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $26.99 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | $0.52 | $0.50 | -4.5% |
| 2026-04-16 | $0.47 | $0.47 | -0.3% |
| 2026-01-20 | $0.48 | $0.54 | +12.9% |
| 2025-10-16 | $0.47 | $0.46 | -2.1% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from SFNC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
SFNC has crossed below its 200-week MA 36 times with an average 1-year return of +5.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1986 | Jul 1988 | 98 | 24.8% | -25.9% | +4378.2% |
| Aug 1999 | May 2001 | 93 | 42.1% | -28.3% | +558.4% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 3 | 13.8% | +17.4% | +212.1% |
| Sep 2007 | Sep 2007 | 1 | 3.0% | +24.1% | +219.4% |
| Oct 2007 | Nov 2007 | 4 | 6.3% | +18.7% | +218.4% |
| Nov 2007 | Dec 2007 | 3 | 2.0% | +15.7% | +209.1% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 3 | 5.6% | +21.0% | +226.0% |
| Feb 2008 | Mar 2008 | 2 | 5.3% | +2.8% | +213.4% |
| Nov 2008 | Nov 2008 | 1 | 10.0% | +6.1% | +227.2% |
| Jan 2009 | Mar 2009 | 12 | 19.2% | +8.7% | +200.4% |
| Apr 2009 | May 2009 | 4 | 10.2% | +14.9% | +207.8% |
| Jun 2009 | Jul 2009 | 3 | 0.7% | +4.2% | +190.3% |
| Nov 2009 | Dec 2009 | 6 | 7.7% | +14.3% | +193.0% |
| Feb 2010 | Mar 2010 | 4 | 2.8% | +11.0% | +191.6% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 3 | 2.0% | -0.1% | +185.3% |
| Jun 2010 | Aug 2010 | 9 | 7.2% | +3.6% | +188.9% |
| Apr 2011 | Nov 2011 | 32 | 22.6% | -1.3% | +185.1% |
| Feb 2012 | Mar 2012 | 1 | 3.7% | +5.4% | +188.0% |
| Apr 2012 | Oct 2012 | 26 | 9.4% | +2.2% | +183.4% |
| Oct 2012 | Dec 2012 | 9 | 7.5% | +39.4% | +194.1% |
| Apr 2013 | May 2013 | 2 | 1.3% | +48.3% | +179.6% |
| Aug 2013 | Sep 2013 | 1 | 0.9% | +69.1% | +180.9% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 4 | 7.0% | +6.6% | +21.7% |
| Jan 2019 | Feb 2019 | 3 | 1.9% | +2.3% | +21.0% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 4 | 9.0% | -16.8% | +20.6% |
| Apr 2019 | Nov 2019 | 32 | 11.6% | -27.5% | +18.5% |
| Jan 2020 | Jan 2021 | 50 | 41.9% | +12.5% | +18.3% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 0.2% | -27.4% | +15.5% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 7 | 11.0% | -16.4% | +20.8% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 3 | 6.0% | -24.7% | +18.9% |
| Nov 2022 | Aug 2024 | 90 | 33.9% | -23.2% | +19.1% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 2 | 4.0% | +6.6% | +23.0% |
| Jan 2025 | Jan 2025 | 1 | 0.1% | -3.9% | +17.5% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 17 | 14.7% | -1.3% | +19.8% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 3 | 3.9% | +22.9% | +22.5% |
| Oct 2025 | Dec 2025 | 9 | 9.2% | N/A | +29.3% |
| Average | 15 | — | +5.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SFNC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC) is currently 25.3% above its 200-week moving average of $18.27. It would need to fall to $18.27 to cross below the line.
What is SFNC's 200-week moving average price?
Simmons First National Corporation's 200-week moving average is $18.27 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when SFNC drops below its 200-week moving average?
SFNC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 36 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +5.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.
Is SFNC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about SFNC as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 57. Return on equity is -9.9%. Price-to-book is 0.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does SFNC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in SFNC would have grown to $1504, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 8.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. SFNC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does SFNC pay a dividend?
Yes. Simmons First National Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 376.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18