SF
Stifel Financial Corp. Financial Services - Investment Banking Investor Relations →
Stifel Financial Corp. (SF) closed at $79.76 as of 2026-09-11, trading 36.6% above its 200-week moving average of $58.37. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 40.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 65, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.82 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2203 weeks of data, SF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times. On average, these episodes lasted 22 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SF at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +35.3%.
With a market cap of $12.0 billion, SF is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 16.4%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.3x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SF would have grown to $12092, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.3% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming SF as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -0.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: SF vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SF Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying SF when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +39.8% after 12 months (median +35.0%), compared to +19.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 95% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +61.0% vs +34.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SF crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices SF would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where SF's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-21.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $63.79 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $69.52 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $76.39 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $84.77 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $95.21 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | $1.36 | $1.42 | +4.3% |
| 2026-04-22 | $1.38 | $1.45 | +5.0% |
| 2026-01-28 | $1.67 | $1.75 | +4.8% |
| 2025-10-22 | $1.23 | $1.30 | +5.7% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from SF's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
SF has crossed below its 200-week MA 25 times with an average 1-year return of +35.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1984 | Feb 1985 | 33 | 38.7% | +16.7% | +16298.1% |
| Mar 1985 | Nov 1985 | 37 | 18.0% | +54.4% | +13708.9% |
| Jul 1986 | Aug 1986 | 1 | 2.0% | +98.4% | +12803.4% |
| Oct 1987 | Oct 1991 | 208 | 53.3% | -19.4% | +12595.3% |
| Dec 1991 | Dec 1991 | 1 | 4.1% | +32.2% | +17011.0% |
| Aug 1994 | Jul 1995 | 50 | 22.8% | +9.0% | +12459.4% |
| Aug 1995 | May 1996 | 40 | 17.5% | +6.8% | +11853.4% |
| Jul 1996 | Aug 1996 | 4 | 1.7% | +66.0% | +11388.9% |
| Sep 1999 | Oct 1999 | 2 | 2.4% | +36.0% | +6894.7% |
| May 2000 | Jun 2000 | 2 | 3.1% | +37.8% | +6431.4% |
| Sep 2001 | Feb 2002 | 21 | 10.9% | +26.7% | +6050.8% |
| Dec 2002 | Jan 2003 | 4 | 2.4% | +57.0% | +5384.5% |
| Aug 2011 | Jan 2012 | 23 | 17.5% | +5.8% | +619.0% |
| May 2012 | Sep 2012 | 16 | 11.3% | +12.1% | +558.4% |
| Sep 2012 | Jan 2013 | 16 | 13.3% | +24.2% | +511.6% |
| Feb 2013 | Mar 2013 | 1 | 1.2% | +39.4% | +495.8% |
| Mar 2013 | May 2013 | 10 | 9.7% | +45.4% | +498.6% |
| Sep 2015 | Oct 2015 | 3 | 0.5% | -8.3% | +390.2% |
| Dec 2015 | Nov 2016 | 48 | 35.1% | +23.9% | +388.9% |
| May 2017 | Jun 2017 | 3 | 4.4% | +33.4% | +356.5% |
| Jun 2017 | Jun 2017 | 1 | 4.4% | +31.5% | +375.9% |
| Oct 2018 | Nov 2018 | 4 | 10.3% | +14.1% | +327.9% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 6 | 18.4% | +37.9% | +347.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Aug 2020 | 26 | 32.8% | +90.3% | +298.3% |
| Sep 2020 | Sep 2020 | 1 | 4.8% | +111.1% | +300.1% |
| Average | 22 | — | +35.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SF below its 200-week moving average?
No. Stifel Financial Corp. (SF) is currently 36.6% above its 200-week moving average of $58.37. It would need to fall to $58.37 to cross below the line.
What is SF's 200-week moving average price?
Stifel Financial Corp.'s 200-week moving average is $58.37 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when SF drops below its 200-week moving average?
SF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +35.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 22 weeks on average.
Is SF a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about SF as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 65. Return on equity is 16.4%. Price-to-book is 2.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does SF compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in SF would have grown to $12092, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That's 15.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. SF has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does SF pay a dividend?
Yes. Stifel Financial Corp. currently pays a dividend yield of 171.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11