SF
Stifel Financial Corp. Financial Services - Investment Banking Investor Relations →
Stifel Financial Corp. (SF) closed at $73.54 as of 2026-06-19, trading 31.3% above its 200-week moving average of $56.00. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 30.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 56, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.01 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2191 weeks of data, SF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times. On average, these episodes lasted 22 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SF at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +38.3%.
With a market cap of $11.3 billion, SF is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 15.3%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.1x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SF would have grown to $11102, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.1% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming SF as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -0.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: SF vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SF Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying SF when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +42.4% after 12 months (median +35.0%), compared to +20.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 95% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +61.5% vs +34.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SF crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices SF would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where SF's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-04-22.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $59.57 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $64.41 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $70.10 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $76.90 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $85.15 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from SF's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
SF has crossed below its 200-week MA 26 times with an average 1-year return of +38.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1984 | Feb 1985 | 33 | 38.7% | +16.7% | +14955.6% |
| Mar 1985 | Nov 1985 | 37 | 18.0% | +54.4% | +12578.4% |
| Jul 1986 | Aug 1986 | 1 | 2.0% | +98.4% | +11747.1% |
| Oct 1987 | Oct 1991 | 208 | 53.3% | -19.4% | +11556.0% |
| Dec 1991 | Dec 1991 | 1 | 4.1% | +32.2% | +15610.2% |
| Aug 1994 | Jul 1995 | 50 | 22.8% | +8.5% | +11431.2% |
| Aug 1995 | May 1996 | 40 | 17.5% | +6.0% | +10874.8% |
| Jul 1996 | Aug 1996 | 4 | 1.7% | +66.0% | +10448.4% |
| Sep 1999 | Oct 1999 | 2 | 2.4% | +36.0% | +6322.1% |
| May 2000 | Jun 2000 | 2 | 3.1% | +37.8% | +5896.7% |
| Sep 2001 | Feb 2002 | 21 | 10.9% | +26.7% | +5547.3% |
| Dec 2002 | Jan 2003 | 3 | 2.4% | +71.4% | +5031.4% |
| Aug 2011 | Jan 2012 | 23 | 17.5% | +5.8% | +560.1% |
| May 2012 | Sep 2012 | 16 | 11.3% | +12.1% | +504.5% |
| Sep 2012 | Jan 2013 | 16 | 13.3% | +24.2% | +461.5% |
| Feb 2013 | Mar 2013 | 1 | 1.2% | +39.4% | +447.0% |
| Mar 2013 | May 2013 | 10 | 9.7% | +45.4% | +449.6% |
| Sep 2015 | Oct 2015 | 3 | 0.5% | -8.3% | +350.1% |
| Dec 2015 | Nov 2016 | 48 | 35.1% | +23.9% | +348.9% |
| May 2017 | Jun 2017 | 3 | 4.4% | +33.4% | +319.2% |
| Jun 2017 | Jun 2017 | 1 | 4.4% | +31.5% | +336.9% |
| Oct 2018 | Nov 2018 | 4 | 10.3% | +14.1% | +292.8% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 6 | 18.4% | +37.9% | +310.7% |
| Mar 2020 | Aug 2020 | 22 | 32.8% | +90.3% | +265.7% |
| Aug 2020 | Aug 2020 | 2 | 3.4% | +100.5% | +263.7% |
| Sep 2020 | Sep 2020 | 1 | 4.8% | +111.1% | +267.3% |
| Average | 22 | — | +38.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SF below its 200-week moving average?
No. Stifel Financial Corp. (SF) is currently 31.3% above its 200-week moving average of $56.00. It would need to fall to $56.00 to cross below the line.
What is SF's 200-week moving average price?
Stifel Financial Corp.'s 200-week moving average is $56.00 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when SF drops below its 200-week moving average?
SF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +38.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 22 weeks on average.
Is SF a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about SF as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 56. Return on equity is 15.3%. Price-to-book is 2.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does SF compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in SF would have grown to $11102, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 15.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. SF has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19