SCVL
Shoe Carnival, Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Footwear Retail Investor Relations →
Shoe Carnival, Inc. (SCVL) closed at $15.94 as of 2026-06-19, trading 34.8% below its 200-week moving average of $24.44. This places SCVL in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -29.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 43, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.45 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1687 weeks of data, SCVL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 36 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SCVL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +39.5%.
With a market cap of $473 million, SCVL is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 10.2%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 5.6%. The stock trades at 0.7x book value.
This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 32.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SCVL would have grown to $509, compared to $2835 for the S&P 500. SCVL has returned 5.1% annualized vs 10.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $500,030. Notably, these purchases occurred while SCVL is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: SCVL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SCVL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 36 historical episodes, buying SCVL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +41.7% after 12 months (median +41.0%), compared to +12.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 81% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +56.2% vs +27.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SCVL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices SCVL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where SCVL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-05-21.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $16.04 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $16.89 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $17.83 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $18.87 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $20.05 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from SCVL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
SCVL has crossed below its 200-week MA 36 times with an average 1-year return of +39.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1994 | May 1997 | 169 | 66.8% | -57.3% | +408.6% |
| Jan 2000 | Mar 2000 | 10 | 13.2% | +2.3% | +656.9% |
| Mar 2000 | Apr 2000 | 1 | 1.3% | -3.4% | +559.8% |
| May 2000 | Apr 2001 | 50 | 55.8% | +56.7% | +812.6% |
| Sep 2001 | Nov 2001 | 8 | 11.1% | +84.3% | +585.7% |
| Apr 2004 | May 2004 | 4 | 2.7% | +47.1% | +370.9% |
| Jun 2004 | Jun 2004 | 2 | 5.8% | +46.5% | +363.4% |
| Jul 2004 | Feb 2005 | 31 | 14.7% | +69.7% | +352.4% |
| Sep 2005 | Sep 2005 | 2 | 4.7% | +60.4% | +299.7% |
| Oct 2005 | Oct 2005 | 3 | 7.4% | +95.4% | +320.9% |
| Aug 2007 | Nov 2009 | 119 | 67.4% | -15.9% | +213.1% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 2 | 2.1% | +34.6% | +234.0% |
| Feb 2010 | Mar 2010 | 1 | 0.6% | +43.1% | +234.8% |
| Aug 2010 | Sep 2010 | 5 | 6.7% | +61.3% | +242.1% |
| May 2014 | Jun 2014 | 4 | 5.4% | +57.3% | +101.1% |
| Jul 2014 | Aug 2014 | 6 | 13.2% | +52.0% | +97.3% |
| Sep 2014 | Dec 2014 | 13 | 13.4% | +26.8% | +95.2% |
| Nov 2015 | Dec 2015 | 5 | 18.5% | +14.6% | +71.7% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 2 | 3.9% | +17.6% | +71.8% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 2 | 3.4% | +18.4% | +70.4% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 1 | 7.7% | -4.4% | +75.0% |
| Mar 2017 | Mar 2017 | 1 | 1.1% | +4.2% | +54.2% |
| Apr 2017 | Apr 2017 | 1 | 0.7% | +1.9% | +53.5% |
| May 2017 | Nov 2017 | 28 | 33.2% | +6.3% | +61.3% |
| Jan 2018 | Feb 2018 | 1 | 4.1% | +68.1% | +63.8% |
| Feb 2018 | Mar 2018 | 2 | 3.1% | +70.2% | +60.5% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 2 | 5.2% | +2.5% | +39.6% |
| Jul 2019 | Aug 2019 | 4 | 13.5% | +8.4% | +55.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Jul 2020 | 19 | 47.0% | +84.1% | +26.6% |
| Jul 2020 | Aug 2020 | 4 | 11.8% | +177.1% | +43.7% |
| Jun 2022 | Aug 2022 | 5 | 4.4% | +12.2% | -18.4% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 2 | 5.4% | +12.8% | -17.2% |
| May 2023 | Jul 2023 | 11 | 14.6% | +53.8% | -25.4% |
| Aug 2023 | Sep 2023 | 5 | 11.5% | +106.5% | -21.3% |
| Oct 2023 | Nov 2023 | 7 | 7.4% | +67.3% | -28.5% |
| Jan 2025 | Ongoing | 74+ | 39.6% | Ongoing | -43.3% |
| Average | 17 | — | +39.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SCVL below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Shoe Carnival, Inc. (SCVL) is trading 34.8% below its 200-week moving average of $24.44. The current price is $15.94.
What is SCVL's 200-week moving average price?
Shoe Carnival, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $24.44 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when SCVL drops below its 200-week moving average?
SCVL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 36 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +39.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 17 weeks on average.
Is SCVL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about SCVL as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 43. Free cash flow yield is 10.2%. Return on equity is 5.6%. Price-to-book is 0.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does SCVL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32.4 years, $100 invested in SCVL would have grown to $509, compared to $2835 for the S&P 500. That's 5.1% annualized vs 10.9% for the index. SCVL has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does SCVL pay a dividend?
Yes. Shoe Carnival, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 3.68%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19