SBUX

Starbucks Corporation Consumer Discretionary - Restaurants Investor Relations →

NO
12.9% ABOVE
↑ Moving away Was 4.6% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $88.05
14-Week RSI 71

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) closed at $99.45 as of 2026-02-02, trading 12.9% above its 200-week moving average of $88.05. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 4.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 71, SBUX is in overbought territory.

Over the past 1706 weeks of data, SBUX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SBUX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +25.2%.

With a market cap of $113.3 billion, SBUX is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. The stock trades at -13.5x book value.

Over the past 32.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SBUX would have grown to $17942, compared to $2755 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 17.1% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming SBUX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.

In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $994,500.

Free cash flow has been declining at a -1.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.

Growth of $100: SBUX vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After SBUX Crosses Below the Line?

Across 18 historical episodes, buying SBUX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +26.1% after 12 months (median +21.0%), compared to +14.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +35.1% vs +31.5% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SBUX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

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Insider Buying Activity

1 conviction buy in the past 12 months (purchases over $500K with meaningful position increases).

DateInsiderTitleValueSharesPosition +%
2025-11-10KNUDSTORP JORGEN VIGDirector$994,50011,700+28.3%

Historical Touches

SBUX has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +25.2% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Sep 2001Oct 200127.6%+45.5%+3630.1%
Jun 2007Dec 200913070.7%-32.5%+942.8%
Dec 2009Jan 201010.3%+41.2%+1054.9%
Jan 2010Feb 201044.7%+46.9%+1062.5%
Jun 2018Aug 2018107.3%+67.2%+128.7%
Mar 2020Mar 202017.5%+87.0%+94.8%
Mar 2022Mar 202211.4%+23.0%+31.7%
Apr 2022Aug 20221815.9%+31.5%+33.6%
Aug 2022Sep 202224.2%+16.0%+28.0%
Sep 2022Oct 202263.3%+13.7%+27.8%
Sep 2023Oct 202350.8%+9.4%+15.4%
Jan 2024Feb 202440.9%+2.9%+13.9%
Feb 2024Aug 20242422.3%+27.5%+11.8%
Sep 2024Sep 202412.2%-3.9%+12.7%
Dec 2024Jan 202545.3%+3.1%+16.1%
Mar 2025Jun 20251012.5%N/A+23.7%
Jul 2025Aug 202513.6%N/A+16.1%
Aug 2025Jan 20262011.5%N/A+13.3%
Average14+25.2%

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02