SBUX
Starbucks Corporation Consumer Discretionary - Restaurants Investor Relations →
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) closed at $99.45 as of 2026-02-02, trading 12.9% above its 200-week moving average of $88.05. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 4.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 71, SBUX is in overbought territory.
Over the past 1706 weeks of data, SBUX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SBUX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +25.2%.
With a market cap of $113.3 billion, SBUX is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. The stock trades at -13.5x book value.
Over the past 32.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SBUX would have grown to $17942, compared to $2755 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 17.1% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming SBUX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $994,500.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -1.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: SBUX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SBUX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying SBUX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +26.1% after 12 months (median +21.0%), compared to +14.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +35.1% vs +31.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SBUX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
SBUX has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +25.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 2 | 7.6% | +45.5% | +3630.1% |
| Jun 2007 | Dec 2009 | 130 | 70.7% | -32.5% | +942.8% |
| Dec 2009 | Jan 2010 | 1 | 0.3% | +41.2% | +1054.9% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 4 | 4.7% | +46.9% | +1062.5% |
| Jun 2018 | Aug 2018 | 10 | 7.3% | +67.2% | +128.7% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 7.5% | +87.0% | +94.8% |
| Mar 2022 | Mar 2022 | 1 | 1.4% | +23.0% | +31.7% |
| Apr 2022 | Aug 2022 | 18 | 15.9% | +31.5% | +33.6% |
| Aug 2022 | Sep 2022 | 2 | 4.2% | +16.0% | +28.0% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 6 | 3.3% | +13.7% | +27.8% |
| Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | 5 | 0.8% | +9.4% | +15.4% |
| Jan 2024 | Feb 2024 | 4 | 0.9% | +2.9% | +13.9% |
| Feb 2024 | Aug 2024 | 24 | 22.3% | +27.5% | +11.8% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 1 | 2.2% | -3.9% | +12.7% |
| Dec 2024 | Jan 2025 | 4 | 5.3% | +3.1% | +16.1% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 10 | 12.5% | N/A | +23.7% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 1 | 3.6% | N/A | +16.1% |
| Aug 2025 | Jan 2026 | 20 | 11.5% | N/A | +13.3% |
| Average | 14 | — | +25.2% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02