SBAC
SBA Communications Corporation Real Estate - REIT - Specialty Investor Relations →
SBA Communications Corporation (SBAC) closed at $178.59 as of 2026-09-18, trading 15.0% below its 200-week moving average of $210.09. This places SBAC in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -11.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 34, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.16 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1374 weeks of data, SBAC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 34 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -2.9%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $18.9 billion, SBAC is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.0%. The stock trades at -4.1x book value.
Over the past 26.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SBAC would have grown to $517, compared to $851 for the S&P 500. SBAC has returned 6.4% annualized vs 8.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -0.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: SBAC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SBAC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying SBAC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -1.2% after 12 months (median +19.0%), compared to +12.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +5.6% vs +22.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SBAC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices SBAC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where SBAC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-02.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $168.21 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $175.82 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $184.14 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $193.29 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $203.39 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | $1.89 | $1.87 | -1.2% |
| 2026-04-29 | $1.74 | $1.74 | -0.3% |
| 2026-02-26 | $4.05 | $3.47 | -14.3% |
| 2025-11-03 | $2.16 | $2.20 | +1.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from SBAC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
SBAC has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +-2.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2001 | Feb 2001 | 1 | 0.0% | -90.2% | +531.0% |
| Mar 2001 | Apr 2001 | 6 | 54.6% | -80.0% | +853.2% |
| May 2001 | Oct 2004 | 181 | 99.0% | -92.9% | +588.5% |
| Sep 2008 | Mar 2009 | 26 | 56.6% | +26.7% | +863.3% |
| Apr 2009 | Sep 2009 | 21 | 15.2% | +41.3% | +679.1% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 4.3% | +55.3% | +660.2% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 2 | 2.6% | +20.5% | +122.1% |
| Nov 2016 | Nov 2016 | 1 | 0.9% | +70.6% | +99.1% |
| Nov 2016 | Dec 2016 | 2 | 3.7% | +75.0% | +104.0% |
| Oct 2022 | Nov 2022 | 5 | 13.8% | -25.9% | -26.6% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 3 | 2.1% | -10.0% | -31.4% |
| Feb 2023 | Apr 2026 | 164 | 33.3% | -25.4% | -31.7% |
| Apr 2026 | Ongoing | 22+ | 19.0% | Ongoing | -17.6% |
| Average | 34 | — | +-2.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SBAC below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, SBA Communications Corporation (SBAC) is trading 15.0% below its 200-week moving average of $210.09. The current price is $178.59.
What is SBAC's 200-week moving average price?
SBA Communications Corporation's 200-week moving average is $210.09 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when SBAC drops below its 200-week moving average?
SBAC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -2.9%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 34 weeks on average.
Is SBAC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about SBAC as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 34. Free cash flow yield is 4.0%. Price-to-book is -4.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does SBAC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 26.4 years, $100 invested in SBAC would have grown to $517, compared to $851 for the S&P 500. That's 6.4% annualized vs 8.4% for the index. SBAC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does SBAC pay a dividend?
Yes. SBA Communications Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 280.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18