SAP
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SAP SE (SAP) closed at $170.76 as of 2026-05-01, trading 8.5% below its 200-week moving average of $186.57. This places SAP in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -5.9% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 25, SAP is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.20 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1549 weeks of data, SAP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SAP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +31.0%.
With a market cap of $201.3 billion, SAP is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.0%. Return on equity stands at 16.4%, a solid level. The stock trades at 3.8x book value.
SAP passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 29.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SAP would have grown to $1739, compared to $1839 for the S&P 500. SAP has returned 10.1% annualized vs 10.3% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 20.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: SAP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SAP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying SAP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +34.0% after 12 months (median +21.0%), compared to +15.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 83% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +47.8% vs +24.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SAP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
SAP has crossed below its 200-week MA 19 times with an average 1-year return of +31.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1996 | Feb 1997 | 15 | 17.4% | +104.7% | +1921.1% |
| Feb 1997 | Feb 1997 | 1 | 0.1% | +156.5% | +1830.2% |
| Nov 2000 | Jan 2001 | 6 | 23.6% | -10.3% | +590.8% |
| Feb 2001 | Oct 2003 | 136 | 72.7% | -1.0% | +569.3% |
| Sep 2008 | Jul 2009 | 43 | 33.9% | +7.7% | +392.9% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 1 | 2.6% | +16.0% | +388.7% |
| Nov 2009 | Dec 2009 | 3 | 3.7% | +8.1% | +380.7% |
| Jan 2010 | Mar 2010 | 8 | 7.2% | +20.4% | +382.0% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 6 | 8.2% | +43.8% | +405.3% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 0.9% | +36.8% | +383.8% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 3 | 2.2% | +20.6% | +390.4% |
| Oct 2014 | Nov 2014 | 4 | 2.1% | +19.6% | +208.7% |
| Jan 2015 | Feb 2015 | 5 | 5.2% | +20.1% | +211.8% |
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2015 | 1 | 0.5% | +17.3% | +197.8% |
| Aug 2015 | Oct 2015 | 8 | 8.7% | +32.4% | +194.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 11.7% | +32.5% | +99.6% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 6.9% | +37.7% | +73.7% |
| Jan 2022 | Mar 2023 | 60 | 33.6% | -4.5% | +49.7% |
| Mar 2026 | Ongoing | 7+ | 12.0% | Ongoing | -2.9% |
| Average | 16 | — | +31.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SAP below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-05-01, SAP SE (SAP) is trading 8.5% below its 200-week moving average of $186.57. The current price is $170.76.
What is SAP's 200-week moving average price?
SAP SE's 200-week moving average is $186.57 as of 2026-05-01. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when SAP drops below its 200-week moving average?
SAP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +31.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is SAP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about SAP as of 2026-05-01: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 25 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 4.0%. Return on equity is 16.4%. Price-to-book is 3.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does SAP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 29.8 years, $100 invested in SAP would have grown to $1739, compared to $1839 for the S&P 500. That's 10.1% annualized vs 10.3% for the index. SAP has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does SAP pay a dividend?
Yes. SAP SE currently pays a dividend yield of 174.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-01