SAP
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SAP SE (SAP) closed at $155.22 as of 2026-06-19, trading 16.7% below its 200-week moving average of $186.33. This places SAP in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -11.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 37, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.02 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1556 weeks of data, SAP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SAP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +31.0%.
With a market cap of $183.0 billion, SAP is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.5%. Return on equity stands at 16.4%, a solid level. The stock trades at 3.5x book value.
SAP passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 29.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SAP would have grown to $1608, compared to $1916 for the S&P 500. SAP has returned 9.7% annualized vs 10.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 20.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: SAP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SAP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying SAP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +34.0% after 12 months (median +21.0%), compared to +15.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 83% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +47.8% vs +24.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SAP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices SAP would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where SAP's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-23.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $129.15 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $141.84 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $157.29 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $176.52 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $201.11 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from SAP's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
SAP has crossed below its 200-week MA 19 times with an average 1-year return of +31.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1996 | Feb 1997 | 15 | 17.4% | +104.7% | +1769.2% |
| Feb 1997 | Feb 1997 | 1 | 0.1% | +156.5% | +1685.0% |
| Nov 2000 | Jan 2001 | 6 | 23.6% | -10.3% | +538.8% |
| Feb 2001 | Oct 2003 | 136 | 72.7% | -1.0% | +519.0% |
| Sep 2008 | Jul 2009 | 43 | 33.9% | +7.7% | +355.8% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 1 | 2.6% | +16.0% | +352.0% |
| Nov 2009 | Dec 2009 | 3 | 3.7% | +8.1% | +344.6% |
| Jan 2010 | Mar 2010 | 8 | 7.2% | +20.4% | +345.8% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 6 | 8.2% | +43.8% | +367.3% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 0.9% | +36.8% | +347.5% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 3 | 2.2% | +20.6% | +353.5% |
| Oct 2014 | Nov 2014 | 4 | 2.1% | +19.6% | +185.5% |
| Jan 2015 | Feb 2015 | 5 | 5.2% | +20.1% | +188.3% |
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2015 | 1 | 0.5% | +17.3% | +175.4% |
| Aug 2015 | Oct 2015 | 8 | 8.7% | +32.4% | +172.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 11.7% | +32.5% | +84.6% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 6.9% | +37.7% | +60.6% |
| Jan 2022 | Mar 2023 | 60 | 33.6% | -4.5% | +38.4% |
| Mar 2026 | Ongoing | 14+ | 16.7% | Ongoing | -10.2% |
| Average | 17 | — | +31.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SAP below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, SAP SE (SAP) is trading 16.7% below its 200-week moving average of $186.33. The current price is $155.22.
What is SAP's 200-week moving average price?
SAP SE's 200-week moving average is $186.33 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when SAP drops below its 200-week moving average?
SAP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +31.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 17 weeks on average.
Is SAP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about SAP as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 37. Free cash flow yield is 4.5%. Return on equity is 16.4%. Price-to-book is 3.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does SAP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 29.9 years, $100 invested in SAP would have grown to $1608, compared to $1916 for the S&P 500. That's 9.7% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. SAP has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does SAP pay a dividend?
Yes. SAP SE currently pays a dividend yield of 177.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19