SAP
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SAP SE (SAP) closed at $203.34 as of 2026-02-02, trading 12.2% above its 200-week moving average of $181.15. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 11.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 24, SAP is in oversold territory.
Over the past 1537 weeks of data, SAP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SAP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +31.0%.
With a market cap of $237.3 billion, SAP is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.3%. Return on equity stands at 16.5%, a solid level. The stock trades at 4.5x book value.
SAP passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 29.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SAP would have grown to $2071, compared to $1762 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 10.8% vs 10.2% for the index — confirming SAP as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -7.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: SAP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SAP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying SAP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +34.0% after 12 months (median +21.0%), compared to +15.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 83% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +47.8% vs +24.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SAP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
SAP has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +31.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1996 | Feb 1997 | 15 | 17.4% | +104.7% | +2306.8% |
| Feb 1997 | Feb 1997 | 1 | 0.1% | +156.5% | +2198.5% |
| Nov 2000 | Jan 2001 | 6 | 23.6% | -10.3% | +722.6% |
| Feb 2001 | Oct 2003 | 136 | 72.7% | -1.0% | +697.0% |
| Sep 2008 | Jul 2009 | 43 | 33.9% | +7.7% | +486.9% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 1 | 2.6% | +16.0% | +482.0% |
| Nov 2009 | Dec 2009 | 3 | 3.7% | +8.1% | +472.5% |
| Jan 2010 | Mar 2010 | 8 | 7.2% | +20.4% | +474.0% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 6 | 8.2% | +43.8% | +501.8% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 0.9% | +36.8% | +476.2% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 3 | 2.2% | +20.6% | +483.9% |
| Oct 2014 | Nov 2014 | 4 | 2.1% | +19.6% | +267.6% |
| Jan 2015 | Feb 2015 | 5 | 5.2% | +20.1% | +271.2% |
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2015 | 1 | 0.5% | +17.3% | +254.6% |
| Aug 2015 | Oct 2015 | 8 | 8.7% | +32.4% | +251.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 11.7% | +32.5% | +137.7% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 6.9% | +37.7% | +106.9% |
| Jan 2022 | Mar 2023 | 60 | 33.6% | -4.5% | +78.2% |
| Average | 17 | — | +31.0% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02