SAIC
Science Applications International Corp. Technology - Defense IT Investor Relations →
Science Applications International Corp. (SAIC) closed at $117.13 as of 2026-07-31, trading 6.5% above its 200-week moving average of $110.00. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 8.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 70, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.03 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 623 weeks of data, SAIC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 7 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SAIC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +37.5%.
With a market cap of $5.0 billion, SAIC is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.4%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 27.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.5x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 18.5% over the past three years.
Over the past 12 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SAIC would have grown to $312, compared to $455 for the S&P 500. SAIC has returned 9.9% annualized vs 13.5% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 4.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: SAIC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SAIC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying SAIC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +31.0% after 12 months (median +18.0%), compared to +28.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +56.2% vs +48.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SAIC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices SAIC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where SAIC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-04-30).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $80.52 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $87.17 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $95.02 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $104.43 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $115.90 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from SAIC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
SAIC has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +37.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2015 | Oct 2015 | 7 | 6.7% | +56.1% | +231.7% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 5 | 5.2% | +97.5% | +222.5% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 3 | 6.3% | +48.0% | +118.4% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 4 | 29.6% | +39.3% | +87.6% |
| Jun 2020 | Jul 2020 | 4 | 6.4% | +24.4% | +70.9% |
| Feb 2025 | Mar 2025 | 5 | 6.1% | -13.0% | +18.5% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 3 | 2.5% | +10.1% | +13.2% |
| Sep 2025 | Jan 2026 | 18 | 21.2% | N/A | +13.2% |
| Jan 2026 | Jun 2026 | 18 | 20.4% | N/A | +15.9% |
| Jun 2026 | Jun 2026 | 1 | 6.5% | N/A | +14.8% |
| Average | 7 | — | +37.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SAIC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Science Applications International Corp. (SAIC) is currently 6.5% above its 200-week moving average of $110.00. It would need to fall to $110.00 to cross below the line.
What is SAIC's 200-week moving average price?
Science Applications International Corp.'s 200-week moving average is $110.00 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when SAIC drops below its 200-week moving average?
SAIC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +37.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 7 weeks on average.
Is SAIC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about SAIC as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 70. Free cash flow yield is 8.4%. Return on equity is 27.7%. Price-to-book is 3.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does SAIC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 12 years, $100 invested in SAIC would have grown to $312, compared to $455 for the S&P 500. That's 9.9% annualized vs 13.5% for the index. SAIC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does SAIC pay a dividend?
Yes. Science Applications International Corp. currently pays a dividend yield of 126.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31