RXO
RXO, Inc. Industrials - Freight Brokerage Investor Relations →
RXO, Inc. (RXO) closed at $25.39 as of 2026-06-19, trading 27.1% above its 200-week moving average of $19.97. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 42.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 76, RXO is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.77 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 142 weeks of data, RXO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -1.8%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $4.2 billion, RXO is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.6%. Return on equity stands at -6.8%. The stock trades at 2.8x book value.
Share count has increased 41.0% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 2.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in RXO would have grown to $137, compared to $185 for the S&P 500. RXO has returned 12.2% annualized vs 25.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 5 open-market purchases totaling $6,976,699. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: RXO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After RXO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 3 historical episodes, buying RXO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +0.3% after 12 months (median -22.0%), compared to +22.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 33% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -4.0% vs +57.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment RXO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. RXO currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from RXO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
RXO has crossed below its 200-week MA 3 times with an average 1-year return of +-1.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2023 | Nov 2023 | 6 | 10.4% | +43.7% | +34.1% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 2 | 2.6% | -31.6% | +31.1% |
| Feb 2025 | May 2026 | 67 | 47.1% | -17.6% | +23.8% |
| Average | 25 | — | +-1.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RXO below its 200-week moving average?
No. RXO, Inc. (RXO) is currently 27.1% above its 200-week moving average of $19.97. It would need to fall to $19.97 to cross below the line.
What is RXO's 200-week moving average price?
RXO, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $19.97 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when RXO drops below its 200-week moving average?
RXO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -1.8%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is RXO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about RXO as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 76 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 1.6%. Return on equity is -6.8%. Price-to-book is 2.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does RXO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 2.8 years, $100 invested in RXO would have grown to $137, compared to $185 for the S&P 500. That's 12.2% annualized vs 25.0% for the index. RXO has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19