RTX
RTX Corporation Industrials - Aerospace & Defense Investor Relations →
RTX Corporation (RTX) closed at $215.22 as of 2026-07-31, trading 76.3% above its 200-week moving average of $122.09. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 75.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 83, RTX is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.05 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 3308 weeks of data, RTX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 37 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought RTX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.0%.
With a market cap of $290.1 billion, RTX is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.4%. Return on equity stands at 12.3%. The stock trades at 4.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.5% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in RTX would have grown to $11844, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.3% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming RTX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 19.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: RTX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After RTX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying RTX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +34.8% after 12 months (median +37.0%), compared to +18.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +60.1% vs +31.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment RTX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices RTX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where RTX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $168.46 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $180.59 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $194.61 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $210.98 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $230.36 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from RTX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
RTX has crossed below its 200-week MA 37 times with an average 1-year return of +21.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1963 | Jul 1963 | 2 | 1.7% | +12.1% | +239469.6% |
| Jul 1963 | Feb 1964 | 28 | 8.2% | +12.3% | +249649.7% |
| Mar 1968 | Mar 1968 | 1 | 0.1% | +19.0% | +95783.9% |
| May 1968 | May 1968 | 1 | 0.1% | +10.3% | +92651.6% |
| Jun 1968 | Nov 1968 | 23 | 15.6% | +0.6% | +93128.1% |
| Dec 1968 | Feb 1969 | 12 | 10.0% | -38.1% | +90046.0% |
| May 1969 | May 1972 | 157 | 58.5% | -56.7% | +84023.8% |
| Jun 1972 | Jul 1972 | 8 | 9.8% | -13.2% | +138111.8% |
| Aug 1972 | Aug 1972 | 1 | 0.3% | -24.2% | +138356.8% |
| Jun 1973 | Oct 1973 | 18 | 17.9% | -8.4% | +159188.2% |
| Oct 1973 | Nov 1974 | 54 | 27.5% | +5.2% | +171610.2% |
| Dec 1974 | Dec 1974 | 2 | 2.9% | +63.2% | +159653.4% |
| Jan 1982 | Jul 1982 | 26 | 21.7% | +62.4% | +41659.3% |
| Aug 1982 | Aug 1982 | 2 | 1.8% | +79.8% | +39844.0% |
| Oct 1987 | Oct 1988 | 52 | 26.0% | +19.9% | +18140.3% |
| Oct 1988 | Dec 1988 | 8 | 5.2% | +34.4% | +15530.3% |
| Sep 1990 | Oct 1990 | 3 | 3.9% | +8.0% | +13912.3% |
| Oct 1990 | Nov 1990 | 2 | 1.1% | +15.0% | +13475.7% |
| Apr 1991 | Apr 1991 | 1 | 0.0% | +30.4% | +13175.9% |
| May 1991 | May 1991 | 2 | 0.9% | +23.9% | +13289.4% |
| Sep 1991 | Oct 1991 | 2 | 2.0% | +14.2% | +13211.7% |
| Oct 1992 | Dec 1992 | 10 | 9.8% | +28.1% | +12026.8% |
| Jan 1993 | Apr 1993 | 12 | 6.0% | +40.1% | +11650.1% |
| Sep 2001 | Nov 2001 | 9 | 27.4% | +39.9% | +2659.7% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2002 | 1 | 1.7% | +22.8% | +1770.9% |
| Aug 2002 | Dec 2002 | 20 | 17.2% | +26.9% | +1783.1% |
| Jan 2003 | Apr 2003 | 13 | 9.7% | +52.6% | +1699.6% |
| Sep 2008 | Aug 2009 | 47 | 35.8% | +12.0% | +849.2% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 0.5% | +22.2% | +747.5% |
| Aug 2015 | Oct 2015 | 9 | 8.2% | +20.5% | +372.6% |
| Nov 2015 | Feb 2016 | 12 | 11.1% | +16.1% | +356.2% |
| Oct 2016 | Oct 2016 | 1 | 1.5% | +25.5% | +333.8% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 3 | 3.0% | +44.0% | +282.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 37 | 33.1% | +21.9% | +275.3% |
| Dec 2020 | Mar 2021 | 12 | 9.1% | +21.1% | +233.6% |
| Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | 7 | 13.4% | +61.2% | +200.4% |
| Nov 2023 | Nov 2023 | 1 | 0.1% | +52.3% | +183.7% |
| Average | 16 | — | +21.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RTX below its 200-week moving average?
No. RTX Corporation (RTX) is currently 76.3% above its 200-week moving average of $122.09. It would need to fall to $122.09 to cross below the line.
What is RTX's 200-week moving average price?
RTX Corporation's 200-week moving average is $122.09 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when RTX drops below its 200-week moving average?
RTX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 37 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is RTX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about RTX as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 83 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 3.4%. Return on equity is 12.3%. Price-to-book is 4.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does RTX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in RTX would have grown to $11844, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 15.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. RTX has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does RTX pay a dividend?
Yes. RTX Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 136.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31