RSG
Republic Services, Inc. Industrials - Waste Management Investor Relations →
Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) closed at $218.07 as of 2026-09-18, trading 15.2% above its 200-week moving average of $189.26. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 18.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 58, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.77 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1424 weeks of data, RSG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought RSG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +18.6%.
With a market cap of $66.8 billion, RSG is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.9%. Return on equity stands at 18.2%, a solid level. The stock trades at 5.5x book value.
Over the past 27.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in RSG would have grown to $2140, compared to $894 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.9% vs 8.3% for the index — confirming RSG as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 15 open-market purchases totaling $1,582,789,033. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 11.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: RSG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After RSG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying RSG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +19.2% after 12 months (median +18.0%), compared to +8.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 92% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +35.2% vs +21.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment RSG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices RSG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where RSG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $194.58 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $202.16 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $210.37 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $219.26 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $228.94 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | $1.82 | $1.85 | +1.7% |
| 2026-05-07 | $1.64 | $1.70 | +3.8% |
| 2026-02-17 | $1.63 | $1.76 | +7.9% |
| 2025-10-30 | $1.78 | $1.90 | +6.5% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from RSG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
RSG has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +18.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1999 | Dec 2000 | 73 | 47.5% | -17.3% | +2689.2% |
| Jan 2001 | Feb 2001 | 7 | 9.8% | +21.6% | +3194.3% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 2 | 3.1% | +15.2% | +3069.5% |
| Oct 2001 | Nov 2001 | 1 | 7.6% | +37.1% | +3284.9% |
| Oct 2008 | Jul 2009 | 41 | 38.5% | +24.0% | +1329.3% |
| Aug 2009 | Oct 2009 | 9 | 4.9% | +29.9% | +1151.5% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 1 | 1.7% | +18.1% | +1099.5% |
| Feb 2010 | Feb 2010 | 2 | 2.9% | +20.3% | +1102.2% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 2 | 0.6% | +10.5% | +1006.5% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 3.4% | +11.7% | +1040.8% |
| Dec 2011 | Dec 2011 | 1 | 1.0% | +13.7% | +1013.2% |
| May 2012 | Jul 2012 | 8 | 2.9% | +38.7% | +1016.2% |
| Average | 12 | — | +18.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RSG below its 200-week moving average?
No. Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) is currently 15.2% above its 200-week moving average of $189.26. It would need to fall to $189.26 to cross below the line.
What is RSG's 200-week moving average price?
Republic Services, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $189.26 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when RSG drops below its 200-week moving average?
RSG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +18.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.
Is RSG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about RSG as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 58. Free cash flow yield is 2.9%. Return on equity is 18.2%. Price-to-book is 5.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does RSG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 27.3 years, $100 invested in RSG would have grown to $2140, compared to $894 for the S&P 500. That's 11.9% annualized vs 8.3% for the index. RSG has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does RSG pay a dividend?
Yes. Republic Services, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 123.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18