ROST
Ross Stores Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Retail Investor Relations →
Ross Stores Inc. (ROST) closed at $251.07 as of 2026-07-31, trading 75.2% above its 200-week moving average of $143.34. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 67.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 60, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.72 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2090 weeks of data, ROST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ROST at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.8%.
With a market cap of $80.5 billion, ROST is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.5%. Return on equity stands at 39.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 12.8x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.0% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ROST would have grown to $49268, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 20.3% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming ROST as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 28.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ROST vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ROST Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying ROST when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.2% after 12 months (median +24.0%), compared to +9.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 76% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +71.4% vs +18.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ROST crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ROST would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ROST's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-20.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $208.40 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $224.43 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $243.15 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $265.27 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $291.81 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ROST's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ROST has crossed below its 200-week MA 26 times with an average 1-year return of +27.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1986 | Sep 1988 | 112 | 64.4% | -9.5% | +91694.8% |
| Nov 1988 | Nov 1988 | 2 | 4.4% | +73.0% | +117744.5% |
| Feb 1990 | Feb 1990 | 1 | 0.4% | -31.0% | +103715.6% |
| Apr 1990 | Jun 1990 | 7 | 15.0% | -13.4% | +106247.6% |
| Jul 1990 | May 1991 | 43 | 57.2% | +38.6% | +104966.4% |
| Jun 1992 | Aug 1992 | 7 | 13.2% | +13.5% | +83751.1% |
| Sep 1992 | Oct 1992 | 3 | 11.5% | +2.8% | +82168.9% |
| May 1993 | May 1993 | 4 | 4.2% | +6.7% | +79177.2% |
| Aug 1993 | Sep 1993 | 5 | 2.6% | +12.0% | +81400.1% |
| Dec 1993 | Jan 1994 | 6 | 7.6% | -15.5% | +80645.4% |
| May 1994 | Jun 1994 | 5 | 4.7% | -20.0% | +81422.8% |
| Sep 1994 | Aug 1995 | 46 | 35.3% | +9.6% | +73689.5% |
| Jan 2000 | Mar 2000 | 10 | 22.9% | +28.8% | +17069.4% |
| Jun 2000 | Jan 2001 | 30 | 27.7% | +47.3% | +15235.3% |
| Apr 2001 | Apr 2001 | 1 | 0.1% | +107.1% | +13508.2% |
| Sep 2005 | Sep 2005 | 1 | 1.4% | +12.2% | +5298.4% |
| Jul 2006 | Sep 2006 | 9 | 8.9% | +31.0% | +4913.1% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 3 | 0.4% | +38.5% | +4320.2% |
| Sep 2007 | Jan 2008 | 21 | 15.6% | +53.3% | +4484.3% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 3 | 2.3% | +61.9% | +4154.0% |
| Nov 2008 | Dec 2008 | 5 | 18.3% | +77.5% | +4483.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 20.7% | +90.3% | +317.2% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 0.3% | +33.9% | +213.0% |
| Jan 2022 | Apr 2022 | 12 | 13.6% | +22.9% | +176.6% |
| Apr 2022 | Nov 2022 | 29 | 29.5% | +8.4% | +163.7% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 2 | 0.9% | +43.8% | +154.4% |
| Average | 14 | — | +27.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ROST below its 200-week moving average?
No. Ross Stores Inc. (ROST) is currently 75.2% above its 200-week moving average of $143.34. It would need to fall to $143.34 to cross below the line.
What is ROST's 200-week moving average price?
Ross Stores Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $143.34 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ROST drops below its 200-week moving average?
ROST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +27.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 14 weeks on average.
Is ROST a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ROST as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 60. Free cash flow yield is 2.5%. Return on equity is 39.0%. Price-to-book is 12.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ROST compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in ROST would have grown to $49268, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 20.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. ROST has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ROST pay a dividend?
Yes. Ross Stores Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 70.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31