ROST
Ross Stores Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Retail Investor Relations →
Ross Stores Inc. (ROST) closed at $226.61 as of 2026-09-18, trading 52.9% above its 200-week moving average of $148.23. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 56.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 44, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.62 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 2097 weeks of data, ROST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ROST at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.8%.
With a market cap of $72.7 billion, ROST is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.8%. Return on equity stands at 42.6%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 10.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.0% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ROST would have grown to $44554, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 19.8% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming ROST as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 28.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ROST vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ROST Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying ROST when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.2% after 12 months (median +24.0%), compared to +9.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 76% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +71.4% vs +18.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ROST crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ROST would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ROST's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-19.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $221.03 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $232.59 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $245.42 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $259.75 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $275.85 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | $1.95 | $2.66 | +36.7% |
| 2026-05-21 | $1.73 | $2.02 | +16.7% |
| 2026-03-03 | $1.90 | $2.00 | +5.1% |
| 2025-11-20 | $1.42 | $1.58 | +11.4% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ROST's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ROST has crossed below its 200-week MA 26 times with an average 1-year return of +27.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1986 | Sep 1988 | 112 | 64.4% | -9.5% | +82912.0% |
| Nov 1988 | Nov 1988 | 2 | 4.4% | +73.0% | +106469.3% |
| Feb 1990 | Feb 1990 | 1 | 0.4% | -31.0% | +93782.7% |
| Apr 1990 | Jun 1990 | 7 | 15.0% | -13.4% | +96072.3% |
| Jul 1990 | May 1991 | 43 | 57.2% | +38.6% | +94913.7% |
| Jun 1992 | Aug 1992 | 7 | 13.2% | +13.5% | +75728.3% |
| Sep 1992 | Oct 1992 | 3 | 11.5% | +2.8% | +74297.5% |
| May 1993 | May 1993 | 4 | 4.2% | +6.7% | +71592.1% |
| Aug 1993 | Sep 1993 | 5 | 2.6% | +12.0% | +73602.2% |
| Dec 1993 | Jan 1994 | 6 | 7.6% | -15.5% | +72919.8% |
| May 1994 | Jun 1994 | 5 | 4.7% | -20.0% | +73622.8% |
| Sep 1994 | Aug 1995 | 46 | 35.3% | +9.6% | +66629.4% |
| Jan 2000 | Mar 2000 | 10 | 22.9% | +28.8% | +15426.6% |
| Jun 2000 | Jan 2001 | 30 | 27.7% | +47.3% | +13768.0% |
| Apr 2001 | Apr 2001 | 1 | 0.1% | +107.1% | +12206.2% |
| Sep 2005 | Sep 2005 | 1 | 1.4% | +12.2% | +4781.9% |
| Jul 2006 | Sep 2006 | 9 | 8.9% | +31.0% | +4433.5% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 3 | 0.4% | +38.5% | +3897.3% |
| Sep 2007 | Jan 2008 | 21 | 15.6% | +53.3% | +4045.6% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 3 | 2.3% | +61.9% | +3747.0% |
| Nov 2008 | Dec 2008 | 5 | 18.3% | +77.5% | +4044.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 20.7% | +90.3% | +277.2% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 0.3% | +33.9% | +183.0% |
| Jan 2022 | Apr 2022 | 12 | 13.6% | +22.9% | +150.2% |
| Apr 2022 | Nov 2022 | 29 | 29.5% | +8.4% | +138.4% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 2 | 0.9% | +43.8% | +130.0% |
| Average | 14 | — | +27.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ROST below its 200-week moving average?
No. Ross Stores Inc. (ROST) is currently 52.9% above its 200-week moving average of $148.23. It would need to fall to $148.23 to cross below the line.
What is ROST's 200-week moving average price?
Ross Stores Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $148.23 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ROST drops below its 200-week moving average?
ROST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +27.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 14 weeks on average.
Is ROST a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ROST as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 44. Free cash flow yield is 2.8%. Return on equity is 42.6%. Price-to-book is 10.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ROST compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in ROST would have grown to $44554, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 19.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. ROST has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ROST pay a dividend?
Yes. Ross Stores Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 79.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18