ROK

Rockwell Automation Inc. Industrials - Industrial Automation Investor Relations →

NO
57.4% ABOVE
↑ Moving away Was 52.2% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $304.96
14-Week RSI 80
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 1.2x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 1.25

Rockwell Automation Inc. (ROK) closed at $480.08 as of 2026-07-31, trading 57.4% above its 200-week moving average of $304.96. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 52.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 80, ROK is in overbought territory.

Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.25 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 2278 weeks of data, ROK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 30 times. On average, these episodes lasted 9 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ROK at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +24.0%.

With a market cap of $53.4 billion, ROK is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.8%. Return on equity stands at 27.2%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 15.2x book value.

Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ROK would have grown to $13041, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.6% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming ROK as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.

Free cash flow has been growing at a 25.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: ROK vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After ROK Crosses Below the Line?

Across 22 historical episodes, buying ROK when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.8% after 12 months (median +37.0%), compared to +0.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 73% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +52.5% vs +14.4% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ROK crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ROK would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score -1.36σ
Current FCF Yield 2.55%
Baseline Yield 3.31%
Historical σ 0.37pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where ROK's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-06.

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$318.12Unusually cheap — potential buy zone
Value+1σ$352.19Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$394.43Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$448.19Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$518.90Unusually expensive — potential trim zone

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 26 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

12 / 13 weeks minimum

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from ROK's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

Yield Dislocation -1.91σ Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score -1.07σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative N/A Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration +0.2pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity N/A TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History -1.4pp Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Improving Accrual gap trend (-8.7pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

Historical Touches

ROK has crossed below its 200-week MA 30 times with an average 1-year return of +24.0% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Oct 1987Nov 198711.0%+14.3%+23370.0%
Nov 1987Mar 19881714.8%+9.0%+23640.5%
Apr 1988Jun 198887.4%+24.0%+23802.0%
Aug 1988Aug 198822.0%+22.0%+22013.3%
Nov 1988Dec 198846.5%+33.5%+22552.0%
Nov 1989Dec 198911.0%+33.2%+19706.4%
Feb 1990Feb 199030.9%+35.7%+19356.8%
Aug 1990Aug 199010.3%+29.2%+18753.1%
Jun 1992Jul 199262.2%+43.7%+16608.1%
Jul 1998Nov 19981728.5%+77.0%+6177.7%
Dec 1998Dec 199810.6%+34.2%+6003.8%
Mar 2000Dec 20004132.7%+24.5%+5582.6%
Mar 2001Apr 2001313.0%+37.8%+5498.6%
Jun 2001Jul 2001713.0%+38.9%+5095.3%
Sep 2001Nov 20011123.2%+23.5%+5196.9%
Sep 2002Oct 200233.0%+67.4%+4745.3%
Jan 2008Jan 200811.1%-46.6%+1196.0%
Feb 2008Feb 200813.4%-50.4%+1218.3%
Feb 2008Mar 200847.5%-62.0%+1197.9%
Apr 2008May 200855.1%-47.5%+1148.8%
Jun 2008Feb 20108865.7%-35.2%+1210.4%
Jan 2016Feb 201666.3%+52.1%+527.5%
Mar 2020Apr 2020319.9%+107.6%+321.2%
May 2022Jul 20221112.0%+34.6%+140.8%
Sep 2022Oct 202222.8%+30.2%+132.7%
May 2024Jul 202474.0%+17.8%+87.7%
Jul 2024Aug 202435.1%+38.4%+95.6%
Sep 2024Oct 202454.1%+35.2%+93.0%
Feb 2025Feb 202510.6%+57.2%+83.0%
Mar 2025May 2025815.7%+40.8%+87.9%
Average9+24.0%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is ROK below its 200-week moving average?

No. Rockwell Automation Inc. (ROK) is currently 57.4% above its 200-week moving average of $304.96. It would need to fall to $304.96 to cross below the line.

What is ROK's 200-week moving average price?

Rockwell Automation Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $304.96 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when ROK drops below its 200-week moving average?

ROK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 30 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +24.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 9 weeks on average.

Is ROK a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about ROK as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 80 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 1.8%. Return on equity is 27.2%. Price-to-book is 15.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does ROK compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in ROK would have grown to $13041, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 15.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. ROK has outperformed the broader market over this period.

Does ROK pay a dividend?

Yes. Rockwell Automation Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 117.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-07-31