ROK
Rockwell Automation Inc. Industrials - Industrial Automation Investor Relations →
Rockwell Automation Inc. (ROK) closed at $415.62 as of 2026-09-18, trading 33.6% above its 200-week moving average of $311.11. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 38.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 34, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.00 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2285 weeks of data, ROK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 30 times. On average, these episodes lasted 9 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ROK at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +24.0%.
With a market cap of $46.2 billion, ROK is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.8%. Return on equity stands at 30.6%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 13.2x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ROK would have grown to $11325, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.0% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming ROK as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 25.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ROK vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ROK Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying ROK when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.8% after 12 months (median +37.0%), compared to +0.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 73% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +52.9% vs +15.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ROK crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ROK would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ROK's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $393.40 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $445.15 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $512.58 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $604.08 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $735.33 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | $3.38 | $3.49 | +3.1% |
| 2026-05-05 | $2.88 | $3.30 | +14.6% |
| 2026-02-05 | $2.48 | $2.75 | +10.7% |
| 2025-11-06 | $2.94 | $3.34 | +13.6% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ROK's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ROK has crossed below its 200-week MA 30 times with an average 1-year return of +24.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1987 | Nov 1987 | 1 | 1.0% | +14.3% | +20281.3% |
| Nov 1987 | Mar 1988 | 17 | 14.8% | +9.0% | +20516.2% |
| Apr 1988 | Jun 1988 | 8 | 7.4% | +24.0% | +20656.4% |
| Aug 1988 | Aug 1988 | 2 | 2.0% | +22.0% | +19103.1% |
| Nov 1988 | Dec 1988 | 4 | 6.5% | +33.5% | +19570.9% |
| Nov 1989 | Dec 1989 | 1 | 1.0% | +33.2% | +17099.8% |
| Feb 1990 | Feb 1990 | 3 | 0.9% | +35.7% | +16796.3% |
| Aug 1990 | Aug 1990 | 1 | 0.3% | +29.2% | +16272.0% |
| Jun 1992 | Jul 1992 | 6 | 2.2% | +43.7% | +14409.3% |
| Jul 1998 | Nov 1998 | 17 | 28.5% | +77.0% | +5351.6% |
| Dec 1998 | Dec 1998 | 1 | 0.6% | +34.2% | +5200.5% |
| Mar 2000 | Dec 2000 | 41 | 32.7% | +24.5% | +4834.7% |
| Mar 2001 | Apr 2001 | 3 | 13.0% | +37.8% | +4761.8% |
| Jun 2001 | Jul 2001 | 7 | 13.0% | +38.9% | +4411.6% |
| Sep 2001 | Nov 2001 | 11 | 23.2% | +23.5% | +4499.8% |
| Sep 2002 | Oct 2002 | 3 | 3.0% | +67.4% | +4107.6% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 1 | 1.1% | -46.6% | +1025.5% |
| Feb 2008 | Feb 2008 | 1 | 3.4% | -50.4% | +1044.8% |
| Feb 2008 | Mar 2008 | 4 | 7.5% | -62.0% | +1027.1% |
| Apr 2008 | May 2008 | 5 | 5.1% | -47.5% | +984.5% |
| Jun 2008 | Feb 2010 | 88 | 65.7% | -35.2% | +1037.9% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 6 | 6.3% | +52.1% | +444.9% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 19.9% | +107.6% | +265.8% |
| May 2022 | Jul 2022 | 11 | 12.0% | +34.6% | +109.1% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 2 | 2.8% | +30.2% | +102.1% |
| May 2024 | Jul 2024 | 7 | 4.0% | +17.8% | +63.0% |
| Jul 2024 | Aug 2024 | 3 | 5.1% | +38.4% | +69.9% |
| Sep 2024 | Oct 2024 | 5 | 4.1% | +35.2% | +67.6% |
| Feb 2025 | Feb 2025 | 1 | 0.6% | +57.2% | +58.9% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 8 | 15.7% | +40.8% | +63.2% |
| Average | 9 | — | +24.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ROK below its 200-week moving average?
No. Rockwell Automation Inc. (ROK) is currently 33.6% above its 200-week moving average of $311.11. It would need to fall to $311.11 to cross below the line.
What is ROK's 200-week moving average price?
Rockwell Automation Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $311.11 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ROK drops below its 200-week moving average?
ROK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 30 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +24.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 9 weeks on average.
Is ROK a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ROK as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 34. Free cash flow yield is 2.8%. Return on equity is 30.6%. Price-to-book is 13.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ROK compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in ROK would have grown to $11325, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 15.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. ROK has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ROK pay a dividend?
Yes. Rockwell Automation Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 133.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18