ROK
Rockwell Automation Inc. Industrials - Industrial Automation Investor Relations →
Rockwell Automation Inc. (ROK) closed at $473.79 as of 2026-06-19, trading 59.4% above its 200-week moving average of $297.33. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 55.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 82, ROK is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.92 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2272 weeks of data, ROK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 30 times. On average, these episodes lasted 9 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ROK at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +25.1%.
With a market cap of $52.7 billion, ROK is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.9%. Return on equity stands at 27.2%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 15.0x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ROK would have grown to $12870, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.6% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming ROK as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 25.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ROK vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ROK Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying ROK when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.3% after 12 months (median +35.0%), compared to +1.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 74% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +47.9% vs +12.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ROK crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ROK would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ROK's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-06.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $317.39 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $347.16 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $383.09 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $427.32 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $483.09 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ROK's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ROK has crossed below its 200-week MA 30 times with an average 1-year return of +25.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1987 | Mar 1988 | 20 | 14.7% | +14.3% | +23062.5% |
| Apr 1988 | Jun 1988 | 8 | 7.6% | +24.0% | +23488.8% |
| Aug 1988 | Aug 1988 | 3 | 1.9% | +18.5% | +21499.2% |
| Nov 1988 | Nov 1988 | 3 | 7.2% | +33.6% | +22446.2% |
| Nov 1989 | Dec 1989 | 1 | 0.9% | +33.2% | +19446.9% |
| Feb 1990 | Feb 1990 | 1 | 0.8% | +29.9% | +19266.4% |
| Aug 1990 | Aug 1990 | 1 | 0.3% | +29.2% | +18506.1% |
| Jun 1992 | Jul 1992 | 6 | 2.1% | +43.7% | +16389.2% |
| Jul 1998 | Nov 1998 | 17 | 28.4% | +77.0% | +6095.5% |
| Dec 1998 | Dec 1998 | 1 | 0.5% | +34.2% | +5923.8% |
| Jan 1999 | Jan 1999 | 1 | 6.0% | +38.5% | +6248.0% |
| Mar 2000 | Dec 2000 | 41 | 32.5% | +24.5% | +5508.1% |
| Mar 2001 | Apr 2001 | 3 | 12.9% | +37.8% | +5425.3% |
| Jun 2001 | Jul 2001 | 5 | 63.7% | +38.9% | +5027.2% |
| Sep 2001 | Nov 2001 | 11 | 22.9% | +23.5% | +5127.5% |
| Sep 2002 | Oct 2002 | 3 | 2.6% | +67.4% | +4681.8% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 1 | 1.1% | -46.6% | +1179.0% |
| Feb 2008 | Feb 2008 | 1 | 3.4% | -50.4% | +1201.0% |
| Feb 2008 | Mar 2008 | 4 | 7.4% | -62.0% | +1180.9% |
| Apr 2008 | May 2008 | 3 | 5.6% | -42.1% | +1150.7% |
| Jun 2008 | Feb 2010 | 88 | 65.7% | -35.2% | +1193.2% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 6 | 6.2% | +52.1% | +519.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 19.9% | +107.6% | +315.7% |
| May 2022 | Jul 2022 | 11 | 12.0% | +34.6% | +137.6% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 2 | 2.7% | +30.2% | +129.6% |
| May 2024 | Jul 2024 | 6 | 4.0% | +24.8% | +90.0% |
| Jul 2024 | Aug 2024 | 3 | 5.0% | +38.4% | +93.0% |
| Sep 2024 | Oct 2024 | 5 | 4.1% | +35.2% | +90.4% |
| Feb 2025 | Feb 2025 | 1 | 0.5% | +57.2% | +80.6% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 8 | 15.7% | +40.8% | +85.5% |
| Average | 9 | — | +25.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ROK below its 200-week moving average?
No. Rockwell Automation Inc. (ROK) is currently 59.4% above its 200-week moving average of $297.33. It would need to fall to $297.33 to cross below the line.
What is ROK's 200-week moving average price?
Rockwell Automation Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $297.33 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ROK drops below its 200-week moving average?
ROK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 30 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +25.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 9 weeks on average.
Is ROK a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ROK as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 82 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 1.9%. Return on equity is 27.2%. Price-to-book is 15.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ROK compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in ROK would have grown to $12870, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 15.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. ROK has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19