RLI
RLI Corp. Financial Services - Insurance Investor Relations →
RLI Corp. (RLI) closed at $59.39 as of 2026-09-18, trading 4.2% below its 200-week moving average of $61.97. This places RLI in the below line zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -2.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 60, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.17 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2378 weeks of data, RLI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought RLI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +13.8%.
With a market cap of $5.5 billion, RLI is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.8%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 25.2%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.1x book value.
RLI passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in RLI would have grown to $9323, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.4% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming RLI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 35.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: RLI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After RLI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying RLI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +18.0% after 12 months (median +17.0%), compared to +12.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +50.9% vs +29.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment RLI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices RLI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where RLI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-19.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $52.06 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $55.74 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $59.99 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $64.94 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $70.77 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | $0.72 | $0.83 | +15.3% |
| 2026-04-22 | $0.78 | $0.83 | +6.1% |
| 2026-01-21 | $0.81 | $0.94 | +15.9% |
| 2025-10-20 | $0.70 | $0.83 | +19.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from RLI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
RLI has crossed below its 200-week MA 15 times with an average 1-year return of +13.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Nov 1982 | 90 | 39.1% | -21.4% | +83283.7% |
| Oct 1987 | Apr 1990 | 131 | 38.6% | -9.7% | +29492.5% |
| Nov 1994 | Dec 1994 | 3 | 1.0% | +52.9% | +11361.5% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 5 | 13.6% | +45.6% | +4276.2% |
| Apr 2008 | Apr 2008 | 1 | 0.8% | +11.7% | +1141.1% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 2 | 1.6% | -6.4% | +1129.3% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 2 | 1.0% | +11.3% | +1087.6% |
| Feb 2009 | Mar 2009 | 5 | 15.1% | +11.2% | +1100.0% |
| Apr 2009 | Aug 2009 | 15 | 14.0% | +24.6% | +1109.3% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 6 | 3.0% | +15.8% | +1031.4% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 3 | 1.5% | +16.2% | +1037.1% |
| Oct 2025 | Dec 2025 | 9 | 8.4% | N/A | +2.1% |
| Dec 2025 | Jul 2026 | 28 | 23.0% | N/A | -0.2% |
| Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | 1 | 0.7% | N/A | -2.7% |
| Sep 2026 | Ongoing | 2+ | 4.2% | Ongoing | -1.8% |
| Average | 20 | — | +13.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RLI below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, RLI Corp. (RLI) is trading 4.2% below its 200-week moving average of $61.97. The current price is $59.39.
What is RLI's 200-week moving average price?
RLI Corp.'s 200-week moving average is $61.97 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when RLI drops below its 200-week moving average?
RLI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +13.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is RLI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about RLI as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 60. Free cash flow yield is 5.8%. Return on equity is 25.2%. Price-to-book is 3.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does RLI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in RLI would have grown to $9323, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 14.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. RLI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does RLI pay a dividend?
Yes. RLI Corp. currently pays a dividend yield of 121.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18