RLI
RLI Corp. Financial Services - Insurance Investor Relations →
RLI Corp. (RLI) closed at $51.50 as of 2026-05-01, trading 19.1% below its 200-week moving average of $63.69. This places RLI in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -17.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 39, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.93 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2358 weeks of data, RLI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought RLI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +18.5%.
With a market cap of $4.7 billion, RLI is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.7%. Return on equity stands at 23.2%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 2.7x book value.
RLI passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in RLI would have grown to $7720, compared to $2973 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.9% vs 10.7% for the index — confirming RLI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 35.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: RLI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After RLI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying RLI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +21.4% after 12 months (median +24.0%), compared to +11.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +50.8% vs +28.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment RLI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
RLI has crossed below its 200-week MA 14 times with an average 1-year return of +18.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Nov 1982 | 90 | 39.1% | -21.4% | +68951.6% |
| Oct 1987 | Apr 1990 | 131 | 39.3% | -9.7% | +24406.1% |
| Nov 1994 | Dec 1994 | 3 | 0.9% | +52.9% | +9391.5% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 5 | 13.6% | +45.6% | +3524.0% |
| Apr 2008 | Apr 2008 | 1 | 0.8% | +11.7% | +927.8% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 2 | 1.6% | -6.4% | +918.0% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 2 | 1.0% | +11.3% | +883.5% |
| Feb 2009 | Mar 2009 | 5 | 15.1% | +11.2% | +893.7% |
| Apr 2009 | Aug 2009 | 15 | 14.1% | +24.6% | +901.5% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 6 | 2.9% | +15.8% | +836.9% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 3 | 1.4% | +16.2% | +841.6% |
| Dec 2010 | Dec 2010 | 1 | 1.2% | +70.3% | +808.0% |
| Oct 2025 | Dec 2025 | 9 | 8.4% | N/A | -15.5% |
| Dec 2025 | Ongoing | 18+ | 19.1% | Ongoing | -17.4% |
| Average | 21 | — | +18.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RLI below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-05-01, RLI Corp. (RLI) is trading 19.1% below its 200-week moving average of $63.69. The current price is $51.50.
What is RLI's 200-week moving average price?
RLI Corp.'s 200-week moving average is $63.69 as of 2026-05-01. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when RLI drops below its 200-week moving average?
RLI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +18.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.
Is RLI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about RLI as of 2026-05-01: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 39. Free cash flow yield is 1.7%. Return on equity is 23.2%. Price-to-book is 2.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does RLI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.3 years, $100 invested in RLI would have grown to $7720, compared to $2973 for the S&P 500. That's 13.9% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. RLI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does RLI pay a dividend?
Yes. RLI Corp. currently pays a dividend yield of 124.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-01