RL
Ralph Lauren Corporation Consumer Cyclical - Apparel Manufacturing Investor Relations →
Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) closed at $335.10 as of 2026-09-18, trading 51.7% above its 200-week moving average of $220.92. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 54.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 24, RL is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.16 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1479 weeks of data, RL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought RL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +7.4%.
With a market cap of $20.0 billion, RL is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.4%. Return on equity stands at 37.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 7.3x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.5% over the past three years.
Over the past 28.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in RL would have grown to $1474, compared to $1141 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 9.9% vs 8.9% for the index — confirming RL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 53.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: RL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After RL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying RL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +11.6% after 12 months (median +10.0%), compared to +2.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 68% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +37.3% vs +19.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment RL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices RL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where RL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $336.67 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $364.32 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $396.91 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $435.90 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $483.39 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | $4.34 | $4.59 | +5.7% |
| 2026-05-21 | $2.54 | $2.80 | +10.1% |
| 2026-02-05 | $5.81 | $6.22 | +7.1% |
| 2025-11-06 | $3.45 | $3.79 | +9.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from RL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
RL has crossed below its 200-week MA 19 times with an average 1-year return of +7.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1998 | Nov 2000 | 121 | 40.0% | -26.1% | +1560.6% |
| Nov 2000 | Dec 2000 | 3 | 1.0% | +11.5% | +1978.2% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 3 | 14.3% | +20.9% | +2296.9% |
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2002 | 4 | 11.6% | +32.5% | +2149.3% |
| Sep 2002 | Nov 2002 | 7 | 18.3% | +27.1% | +2055.5% |
| Dec 2002 | Dec 2002 | 1 | 3.3% | +35.7% | +2035.0% |
| Jan 2003 | Mar 2003 | 10 | 8.1% | +41.7% | +2004.0% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 3 | 6.9% | -15.9% | +677.5% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 4 | 1.8% | -43.2% | +665.8% |
| May 2008 | May 2008 | 1 | 0.4% | -15.6% | +638.6% |
| Jul 2008 | Aug 2008 | 4 | 5.1% | -12.0% | +661.9% |
| Sep 2008 | Aug 2009 | 44 | 48.2% | +26.9% | +657.0% |
| Feb 2015 | Jan 2018 | 154 | 47.0% | -36.1% | +201.3% |
| Jan 2018 | Mar 2018 | 8 | 6.1% | +7.6% | +258.4% |
| Apr 2018 | May 2018 | 3 | 1.6% | +25.9% | +268.6% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 4.3% | +18.0% | +282.2% |
| Jul 2019 | Nov 2019 | 14 | 15.9% | -26.2% | +285.7% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 38 | 38.4% | +49.6% | +349.9% |
| May 2022 | Nov 2022 | 27 | 15.2% | +19.1% | +269.4% |
| Average | 24 | — | +7.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RL below its 200-week moving average?
No. Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) is currently 51.7% above its 200-week moving average of $220.92. It would need to fall to $220.92 to cross below the line.
What is RL's 200-week moving average price?
Ralph Lauren Corporation's 200-week moving average is $220.92 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when RL drops below its 200-week moving average?
RL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +7.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is RL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about RL as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 24 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 4.4%. Return on equity is 37.5%. Price-to-book is 7.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does RL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 28.4 years, $100 invested in RL would have grown to $1474, compared to $1141 for the S&P 500. That's 9.9% annualized vs 8.9% for the index. RL has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does RL pay a dividend?
Yes. Ralph Lauren Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 119.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18