RJF
Raymond James Financial, Inc. Financial Services - Asset Management Investor Relations →
Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF) closed at $155.86 as of 2026-06-19, trading 22.6% above its 200-week moving average of $127.16. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 21.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 62, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.06 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2194 weeks of data, RJF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought RJF at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +51.8%.
With a market cap of $30.4 billion, RJF is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 17.3%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.9% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in RJF would have grown to $11289, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.2% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming RJF as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: RJF vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After RJF Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying RJF when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +46.2% after 12 months (median +51.0%), compared to +13.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 89% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +73.7% vs +23.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment RJF crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices RJF would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where RJF's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-22.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $129.46 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $136.13 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $143.51 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $151.74 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $160.98 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from RJF's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
RJF has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +51.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1984 | Feb 1985 | 36 | 31.7% | +32.1% | +100150.6% |
| Jun 1985 | Jun 1985 | 1 | 2.6% | +77.1% | +80100.5% |
| Oct 1987 | Jan 1989 | 66 | 30.1% | -2.6% | +63104.8% |
| Nov 1990 | Nov 1990 | 1 | 0.6% | +202.6% | +45206.5% |
| Dec 1994 | Dec 1994 | 3 | 2.3% | +81.5% | +13620.2% |
| Oct 1999 | Oct 1999 | 1 | 5.1% | +86.7% | +4303.9% |
| Dec 1999 | Mar 2000 | 14 | 9.7% | +84.5% | +4150.9% |
| Apr 2000 | May 2000 | 5 | 12.8% | +48.3% | +3856.2% |
| May 2000 | May 2000 | 1 | 2.7% | +63.5% | +3856.2% |
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2002 | 3 | 1.3% | +41.0% | +2817.9% |
| Sep 2002 | Oct 2002 | 2 | 7.1% | +60.9% | +2963.9% |
| Jan 2003 | Mar 2003 | 11 | 9.5% | +46.6% | +2675.0% |
| Feb 2008 | Apr 2008 | 9 | 13.9% | -34.5% | +1146.5% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 2 | 2.0% | -34.4% | +1106.3% |
| Oct 2008 | Feb 2010 | 70 | 56.5% | +15.7% | +1335.7% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 3 | 4.7% | +36.2% | +1112.2% |
| Aug 2010 | Sep 2010 | 7 | 5.2% | +8.4% | +1074.9% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 4.9% | +47.3% | +1084.8% |
| Sep 2011 | Sep 2011 | 1 | 0.8% | +48.2% | +1040.0% |
| Jan 2016 | Mar 2016 | 7 | 13.0% | +62.3% | +498.4% |
| Mar 2016 | Apr 2016 | 3 | 5.9% | +61.6% | +480.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Oct 2020 | 32 | 26.8% | +63.0% | +249.2% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 2 | 3.9% | +96.0% | +230.8% |
| Average | 12 | — | +51.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RJF below its 200-week moving average?
No. Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF) is currently 22.6% above its 200-week moving average of $127.16. It would need to fall to $127.16 to cross below the line.
What is RJF's 200-week moving average price?
Raymond James Financial, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $127.16 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when RJF drops below its 200-week moving average?
RJF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +51.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.
Is RJF a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about RJF as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 62. Return on equity is 17.3%. Price-to-book is 2.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does RJF compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in RJF would have grown to $11289, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 15.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. RJF has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19