RITM
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Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) closed at $9.35 as of 2026-09-18, trading 6.0% above its 200-week moving average of $8.82. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 10.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 55, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.19 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 650 weeks of data, RITM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought RITM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.7%.
With a market cap of $5.2 billion, RITM is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 5.6%. The stock trades at 0.8x book value.
Share count has increased 17.3% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 12.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in RITM would have grown to $280, compared to $498 for the S&P 500. RITM has returned 8.6% annualized vs 13.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: RITM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After RITM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying RITM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +47.6% after 12 months (median +27.0%), compared to +15.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +77.0% vs +39.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment RITM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. RITM currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | $0.50 | $0.60 | +20.7% |
| 2026-04-28 | $0.50 | $0.51 | +2.5% |
| 2026-02-03 | $0.58 | $0.74 | +27.1% |
| 2025-10-30 | $0.52 | $0.54 | +3.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from RITM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
RITM has crossed below its 200-week MA 11 times with an average 1-year return of +21.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2015 | Dec 2015 | 1 | 5.5% | +67.8% | +163.4% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 6 | 9.9% | +80.2% | +175.5% |
| Mar 2020 | Oct 2021 | 82 | 74.6% | -3.8% | +41.1% |
| Nov 2021 | Jan 2022 | 6 | 3.1% | -8.9% | +37.2% |
| Jan 2022 | Mar 2022 | 8 | 5.0% | -3.5% | +40.5% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 4 | 1.2% | -14.5% | +39.7% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 5 | 16.4% | +21.6% | +66.7% |
| Aug 2022 | Aug 2022 | 1 | 0.9% | +16.1% | +41.9% |
| Aug 2022 | Jan 2023 | 21 | 25.8% | +13.5% | +42.5% |
| Mar 2023 | May 2023 | 12 | 13.4% | +48.2% | +60.3% |
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | 1 | 1.0% | N/A | +12.5% |
| Average | 13 | — | +21.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RITM below its 200-week moving average?
No. Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) is currently 6.0% above its 200-week moving average of $8.82. It would need to fall to $8.82 to cross below the line.
What is RITM's 200-week moving average price?
Rithm Capital Corp.'s 200-week moving average is $8.82 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when RITM drops below its 200-week moving average?
RITM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is RITM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about RITM as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 55. Return on equity is 5.6%. Price-to-book is 0.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does RITM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 12.5 years, $100 invested in RITM would have grown to $280, compared to $498 for the S&P 500. That's 8.6% annualized vs 13.7% for the index. RITM has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does RITM pay a dividend?
Yes. Rithm Capital Corp. currently pays a dividend yield of 1070.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18