RIO
Rio Tinto Group Materials - Mining Investor Relations →
Rio Tinto Group (RIO) closed at $96.85 as of 2026-07-31, trading 52.5% above its 200-week moving average of $63.51. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 44.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 47, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.92 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1835 weeks of data, RIO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 30 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought RIO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.9%.
With a market cap of $157.5 billion, RIO is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.3%. Return on equity stands at 19.3%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.5x book value.
RIO passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in RIO would have grown to $5048, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.4% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming RIO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -21.7% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: RIO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After RIO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 30 historical episodes, buying RIO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +15.4% after 12 months (median +9.0%), compared to +15.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 62% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +11.9% vs +29.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment RIO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from RIO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
RIO has crossed below its 200-week MA 30 times with an average 1-year return of +17.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1991 | Jan 1992 | 6 | 3.6% | +21.0% | +5971.6% |
| Oct 1997 | Feb 1998 | 17 | 14.1% | -1.0% | +3246.2% |
| May 1998 | Mar 1999 | 42 | 27.9% | +28.6% | +3084.8% |
| Mar 1999 | Apr 1999 | 1 | 1.0% | +41.4% | +3040.7% |
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 1 | 0.6% | +25.5% | +2650.9% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 6.5% | +26.6% | +2642.6% |
| Sep 2008 | Nov 2009 | 58 | 73.8% | -13.1% | +455.3% |
| Nov 2009 | Dec 2009 | 4 | 3.5% | +30.3% | +403.0% |
| Jan 2010 | Mar 2010 | 6 | 8.9% | +34.2% | +397.3% |
| Apr 2010 | Aug 2010 | 18 | 20.9% | +46.5% | +401.2% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 2.0% | -12.5% | +343.4% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 7 | 21.6% | -11.2% | +339.8% |
| Nov 2011 | Jan 2012 | 8 | 16.0% | -5.7% | +380.8% |
| May 2012 | Sep 2012 | 17 | 13.9% | -3.0% | +388.4% |
| Sep 2012 | Oct 2012 | 3 | 4.4% | +9.6% | +415.1% |
| Nov 2012 | Dec 2012 | 4 | 5.5% | +12.3% | +391.1% |
| Feb 2013 | Oct 2013 | 33 | 23.7% | +14.7% | +365.4% |
| Oct 2013 | Nov 2013 | 1 | 1.1% | -2.8% | +354.4% |
| Nov 2013 | Nov 2013 | 1 | 0.1% | -4.8% | +349.5% |
| Dec 2013 | Dec 2013 | 1 | 0.2% | -16.4% | +349.1% |
| Jan 2014 | Jan 2014 | 3 | 1.6% | -9.1% | +347.7% |
| May 2014 | Jun 2014 | 3 | 1.0% | -11.2% | +343.8% |
| Sep 2014 | Feb 2015 | 21 | 16.8% | -29.9% | +344.5% |
| Mar 2015 | Jan 2017 | 97 | 46.2% | -26.8% | +394.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 10.4% | +124.4% | +320.1% |
| Sep 2022 | Sep 2022 | 1 | 1.0% | +30.4% | +130.6% |
| Oct 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 0.8% | +28.1% | +127.7% |
| Dec 2024 | Jan 2025 | 4 | 2.3% | +41.8% | +80.2% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 2 | 5.5% | +81.9% | +86.5% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 1 | 3.4% | +88.5% | +82.5% |
| Average | 12 | — | +17.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RIO below its 200-week moving average?
No. Rio Tinto Group (RIO) is currently 52.5% above its 200-week moving average of $63.51. It would need to fall to $63.51 to cross below the line.
What is RIO's 200-week moving average price?
Rio Tinto Group's 200-week moving average is $63.51 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when RIO drops below its 200-week moving average?
RIO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 30 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +17.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.
Is RIO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about RIO as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 47. Free cash flow yield is 2.3%. Return on equity is 19.3%. Price-to-book is 2.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does RIO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in RIO would have grown to $5048, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 12.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. RIO has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does RIO pay a dividend?
Yes. Rio Tinto Group currently pays a dividend yield of 478.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31