RIO
Rio Tinto Group Materials - Mining Investor Relations →
Rio Tinto Group (RIO) closed at $100.08 as of 2026-06-19, trading 61.4% above its 200-week moving average of $62.01. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 70.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 63, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.92 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1829 weeks of data, RIO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 32 times. On average, these episodes lasted 11 weeks. Historically, investors who bought RIO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +18.4%.
With a market cap of $162.8 billion, RIO is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.1%. Return on equity stands at 16.4%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.6x book value.
RIO passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in RIO would have grown to $5216, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.5% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming RIO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -21.7% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: RIO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After RIO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 32 historical episodes, buying RIO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.2% after 12 months (median +9.0%), compared to +15.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 61% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +14.0% vs +29.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment RIO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from RIO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
RIO has crossed below its 200-week MA 32 times with an average 1-year return of +18.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1991 | Jan 1992 | 6 | 3.6% | +21.0% | +6174.1% |
| Oct 1997 | Feb 1998 | 17 | 14.0% | -1.0% | +3357.8% |
| Mar 1998 | Mar 1998 | 1 | 1.8% | +8.1% | +3229.7% |
| May 1998 | Mar 1999 | 42 | 27.8% | +28.6% | +3191.0% |
| Mar 1999 | Apr 1999 | 1 | 0.9% | +41.4% | +3145.4% |
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 1 | 0.6% | +25.5% | +2742.7% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 6.4% | +26.6% | +2734.1% |
| Sep 2008 | Nov 2009 | 58 | 73.8% | -13.1% | +473.8% |
| Nov 2009 | Dec 2009 | 4 | 3.5% | +30.3% | +419.7% |
| Jan 2010 | Mar 2010 | 6 | 8.9% | +34.2% | +413.9% |
| Apr 2010 | Aug 2010 | 18 | 20.8% | +46.5% | +417.9% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 2.0% | -13.8% | +358.2% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 7 | 21.6% | -11.2% | +354.5% |
| Nov 2011 | Jan 2012 | 8 | 15.9% | -5.7% | +396.8% |
| May 2012 | Sep 2012 | 16 | 13.8% | +4.0% | +477.6% |
| Sep 2012 | Oct 2012 | 3 | 4.3% | +9.6% | +432.3% |
| Nov 2012 | Dec 2012 | 4 | 5.4% | +12.3% | +407.4% |
| Feb 2013 | Oct 2013 | 33 | 23.6% | +14.7% | +381.0% |
| Oct 2013 | Nov 2013 | 1 | 1.1% | -2.8% | +369.6% |
| Nov 2013 | Nov 2013 | 1 | 0.0% | -4.8% | +364.5% |
| Dec 2013 | Dec 2013 | 1 | 0.2% | -16.4% | +364.1% |
| Jan 2014 | Jan 2014 | 3 | 1.5% | -9.1% | +362.6% |
| May 2014 | Jun 2014 | 3 | 0.9% | -11.2% | +358.6% |
| Sep 2014 | Feb 2015 | 21 | 16.8% | -29.9% | +359.3% |
| Mar 2015 | Nov 2016 | 90 | 46.2% | -24.9% | +424.1% |
| Dec 2016 | Jan 2017 | 4 | 1.9% | +33.4% | +438.4% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 10.3% | +124.4% | +334.1% |
| Sep 2022 | Sep 2022 | 1 | 0.8% | +30.4% | +138.3% |
| Oct 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 0.6% | +28.1% | +135.3% |
| Dec 2024 | Jan 2025 | 4 | 2.2% | +41.8% | +86.2% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 2 | 5.4% | +81.9% | +92.7% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 1 | 3.3% | +88.5% | +88.5% |
| Average | 11 | — | +18.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RIO below its 200-week moving average?
No. Rio Tinto Group (RIO) is currently 61.4% above its 200-week moving average of $62.01. It would need to fall to $62.01 to cross below the line.
What is RIO's 200-week moving average price?
Rio Tinto Group's 200-week moving average is $62.01 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when RIO drops below its 200-week moving average?
RIO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 32 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +18.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 11 weeks on average.
Is RIO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about RIO as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 63. Free cash flow yield is 2.1%. Return on equity is 16.4%. Price-to-book is 2.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does RIO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in RIO would have grown to $5216, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 12.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. RIO has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19