RIO
Rio Tinto Group Materials - Mining Investor Relations →
Rio Tinto Group (RIO) closed at $93.41 as of 2026-02-02, trading 57.8% above its 200-week moving average of $59.18. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 54.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 86, RIO is in overbought territory.
Over the past 1810 weeks of data, RIO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 32 times. On average, these episodes lasted 11 weeks. Historically, investors who bought RIO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +13.9%.
With a market cap of $186.5 billion, RIO is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.3%. Return on equity stands at 17.2%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.6x book value.
RIO passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in RIO would have grown to $4736, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.3% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming RIO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -30.7% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: RIO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After RIO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 32 historical episodes, buying RIO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +11.8% after 12 months (median +8.0%), compared to +15.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 59% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +14.0% vs +29.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment RIO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
RIO has crossed below its 200-week MA 32 times with an average 1-year return of +13.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1991 | Jan 1992 | 6 | 3.6% | +21.0% | +5596.7% |
| Oct 1997 | Feb 1998 | 17 | 14.0% | -1.0% | +3039.5% |
| Mar 1998 | Mar 1998 | 1 | 1.8% | +8.1% | +2923.2% |
| May 1998 | Mar 1999 | 42 | 27.8% | +28.6% | +2888.1% |
| Mar 1999 | Apr 1999 | 1 | 0.9% | +41.4% | +2846.7% |
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 1 | 0.6% | +25.5% | +2481.0% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 6.4% | +26.6% | +2473.2% |
| Sep 2008 | Nov 2009 | 58 | 73.8% | -13.1% | +421.0% |
| Nov 2009 | Dec 2009 | 4 | 3.5% | +30.3% | +371.9% |
| Jan 2010 | Mar 2010 | 6 | 8.9% | +34.2% | +366.6% |
| Apr 2010 | Aug 2010 | 18 | 20.8% | +46.5% | +370.2% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 2.0% | -13.8% | +316.0% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 7 | 21.6% | -11.2% | +312.6% |
| Nov 2011 | Jan 2012 | 8 | 15.9% | -5.7% | +351.1% |
| May 2012 | Sep 2012 | 16 | 13.8% | +4.0% | +424.4% |
| Sep 2012 | Oct 2012 | 3 | 4.3% | +9.6% | +383.3% |
| Nov 2012 | Dec 2012 | 4 | 5.4% | +12.3% | +360.7% |
| Feb 2013 | Oct 2013 | 33 | 23.6% | +14.7% | +336.7% |
| Oct 2013 | Nov 2013 | 1 | 1.1% | -2.8% | +326.4% |
| Nov 2013 | Nov 2013 | 1 | 0.0% | -4.8% | +321.8% |
| Dec 2013 | Dec 2013 | 1 | 0.2% | -16.4% | +321.4% |
| Jan 2014 | Jan 2014 | 3 | 1.5% | -9.1% | +320.1% |
| May 2014 | Jun 2014 | 3 | 0.9% | -11.2% | +316.4% |
| Sep 2014 | Feb 2015 | 21 | 16.8% | -29.9% | +317.0% |
| Mar 2015 | Nov 2016 | 90 | 46.2% | -24.9% | +375.9% |
| Dec 2016 | Jan 2017 | 4 | 1.9% | +33.4% | +388.9% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 10.3% | +124.4% | +294.2% |
| Sep 2022 | Sep 2022 | 1 | 0.8% | +30.4% | +116.4% |
| Oct 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 0.6% | +28.1% | +113.6% |
| Dec 2024 | Jan 2025 | 4 | 2.2% | +41.8% | +69.1% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 2 | 5.4% | N/A | +75.0% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 1 | 3.3% | N/A | +71.2% |
| Average | 11 | — | +13.9% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02