RGR
Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. Industrials - Firearms Investor Relations →
Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. (RGR) closed at $40.19 as of 2026-06-19, trading 5.3% below its 200-week moving average of $42.44. This places RGR in the deep value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -7.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 58, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.17 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2724 weeks of data, RGR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought RGR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +16.5%.
With a market cap of $641 million, RGR is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.6%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at -4.0%. The stock trades at 2.3x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 9.7% over the past three years. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in RGR would have grown to $1511, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. RGR has returned 8.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: RGR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After RGR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying RGR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +8.5% after 12 months (median +7.0%), compared to +15.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 55% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +15.8% vs +34.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment RGR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices RGR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where RGR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $37.67 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $40.74 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $44.35 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $48.67 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $53.91 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from RGR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
RGR has crossed below its 200-week MA 26 times with an average 1-year return of +16.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1974 | Jun 1975 | 50 | 33.1% | +8.8% | +45226.0% |
| Oct 1987 | Dec 1987 | 8 | 11.3% | +63.2% | +5946.8% |
| Jan 1988 | Jan 1988 | 1 | 1.9% | +60.9% | +5935.8% |
| Feb 1988 | Feb 1988 | 1 | 5.6% | +74.2% | +6143.9% |
| Jul 1998 | Sep 2001 | 166 | 45.1% | -29.5% | +634.1% |
| Dec 2002 | Dec 2002 | 1 | 0.9% | +35.6% | +833.4% |
| Feb 2003 | Apr 2003 | 9 | 9.1% | +54.8% | +828.3% |
| Aug 2004 | Sep 2004 | 5 | 15.1% | +27.4% | +819.3% |
| Sep 2004 | Jul 2005 | 44 | 32.6% | +3.5% | +738.6% |
| Aug 2005 | Oct 2006 | 63 | 36.3% | -25.3% | +668.1% |
| Oct 2007 | Feb 2009 | 69 | 43.0% | -14.9% | +757.8% |
| Oct 2014 | Feb 2015 | 17 | 22.3% | +39.2% | +48.0% |
| Nov 2015 | Nov 2015 | 1 | 3.4% | -0.6% | +23.7% |
| Nov 2016 | Apr 2017 | 21 | 13.6% | +6.9% | +24.5% |
| Jul 2017 | Dec 2017 | 20 | 15.7% | +6.5% | +9.1% |
| Jan 2018 | Apr 2018 | 9 | 10.3% | +8.6% | +13.0% |
| Nov 2018 | Jan 2019 | 6 | 7.4% | -13.6% | +4.7% |
| Jan 2019 | Feb 2019 | 2 | 2.2% | -7.1% | +3.5% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 7 | 9.1% | -6.8% | +9.8% |
| May 2019 | Jul 2019 | 8 | 9.4% | +18.0% | +8.0% |
| Jul 2019 | Apr 2020 | 37 | 26.6% | +80.3% | +21.0% |
| Apr 2020 | May 2020 | 1 | 1.4% | +37.8% | +6.7% |
| Aug 2022 | Nov 2022 | 14 | 10.6% | +7.5% | -12.5% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 3 | 8.0% | -6.6% | -10.7% |
| May 2023 | Jul 2023 | 10 | 3.0% | -15.6% | -19.8% |
| Aug 2023 | Ongoing | 149+ | 35.2% | Ongoing | -20.2% |
| Average | 28 | — | +16.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RGR below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. (RGR) is trading 5.3% below its 200-week moving average of $42.44. The current price is $40.19.
What is RGR's 200-week moving average price?
Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $42.44 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when RGR drops below its 200-week moving average?
RGR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +16.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is RGR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about RGR as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 58. Free cash flow yield is 5.6%. Return on equity is -4.0%. Price-to-book is 2.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does RGR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in RGR would have grown to $1511, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 8.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. RGR has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19