RGLD
Royal Gold, Inc. Materials - Gold Royalties & Streaming Investor Relations →
Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) closed at $214.82 as of 2026-06-19, trading 44.7% above its 200-week moving average of $148.46. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 40.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 39, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.97 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2301 weeks of data, RGLD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 34 weeks. Historically, investors who bought RGLD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +7.4%.
With a market cap of $18.2 billion, RGLD is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 12.0%. The stock trades at 2.5x book value.
Share count has increased 28.8% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in RGLD would have grown to $8790, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.3% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming RGLD as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: RGLD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After RGLD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying RGLD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +8.2% after 12 months (median +20.0%), compared to +14.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 65% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +36.5% vs +32.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment RGLD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. RGLD currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from RGLD's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
RGLD has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +7.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1984 | Mar 1987 | 117 | 79.3% | -65.6% | +3470.8% |
| Oct 1987 | Sep 1992 | 257 | 98.3% | -50.0% | +4294.8% |
| May 1997 | Jun 1997 | 5 | 6.7% | -25.8% | +3362.6% |
| Jun 1997 | Jul 2001 | 211 | 60.0% | -42.4% | +3362.6% |
| May 2004 | May 2004 | 1 | 2.9% | +69.3% | +2308.1% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 1 | 10.6% | +90.6% | +956.3% |
| Apr 2013 | Aug 2013 | 17 | 30.8% | +23.8% | +376.8% |
| Aug 2013 | Feb 2014 | 23 | 27.0% | +36.0% | +334.4% |
| Oct 2014 | Nov 2014 | 1 | 10.5% | -15.0% | +333.2% |
| Nov 2014 | Dec 2014 | 1 | 1.0% | -43.0% | +288.8% |
| Dec 2014 | Jan 2015 | 3 | 1.5% | -42.3% | +289.2% |
| Mar 2015 | Apr 2016 | 60 | 56.7% | -21.6% | +291.4% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 3 | 7.3% | +35.3% | +317.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | 16.2% | +54.2% | +221.6% |
| Sep 2021 | Nov 2021 | 6 | 7.3% | -10.9% | +126.7% |
| Nov 2021 | Dec 2021 | 3 | 4.1% | +16.7% | +129.6% |
| Jan 2022 | Feb 2022 | 5 | 3.4% | +27.3% | +128.1% |
| Jul 2022 | Nov 2022 | 20 | 18.4% | +18.6% | +117.1% |
| Dec 2022 | Dec 2022 | 1 | 1.5% | +12.3% | +108.2% |
| Aug 2023 | Sep 2023 | 4 | 4.4% | +29.3% | +107.1% |
| Sep 2023 | Nov 2023 | 7 | 6.6% | +35.2% | +108.4% |
| Feb 2024 | Mar 2024 | 7 | 6.0% | +31.0% | +97.1% |
| Average | 34 | — | +7.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RGLD below its 200-week moving average?
No. Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) is currently 44.7% above its 200-week moving average of $148.46. It would need to fall to $148.46 to cross below the line.
What is RGLD's 200-week moving average price?
Royal Gold, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $148.46 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when RGLD drops below its 200-week moving average?
RGLD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +7.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 34 weeks on average.
Is RGLD a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about RGLD as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 39. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 12.0%. Price-to-book is 2.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does RGLD compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in RGLD would have grown to $8790, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 14.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. RGLD has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does RGLD pay a dividend?
Yes. Royal Gold, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 86.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19