RF
Regions Financial Corporation Financial Services - Banking Investor Relations →
Regions Financial Corporation (RF) closed at $28.50 as of 2026-09-18, trading 35.0% above its 200-week moving average of $21.12. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 43.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 47, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.93 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2378 weeks of data, RF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought RF at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.5%.
With a market cap of $24.3 billion, RF is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 11.9%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.2% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in RF would have grown to $655, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. RF has returned 5.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -8.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: RF vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After RF Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying RF when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +24.5% after 12 months (median +27.0%), compared to +9.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 81% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +39.5% vs +16.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment RF crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices RF would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where RF's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-16.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $28.55 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $30.05 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $31.71 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $33.57 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $35.66 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | $0.63 | $0.68 | +7.9% |
| 2026-04-17 | $0.59 | $0.62 | +4.4% |
| 2026-01-16 | $0.61 | $0.57 | -6.8% |
| 2025-10-17 | $0.60 | $0.63 | +5.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from RF's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
RF has crossed below its 200-week MA 27 times with an average 1-year return of +27.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1982 | Sep 1982 | 21 | 16.9% | +24.0% | +4843.7% |
| Nov 1987 | Feb 1988 | 13 | 14.8% | +4.4% | +1887.9% |
| Mar 1988 | Jun 1988 | 16 | 13.0% | +8.9% | +1758.8% |
| Jul 1988 | Jan 1989 | 29 | 10.8% | +14.7% | +1651.5% |
| Feb 1989 | Mar 1989 | 6 | 5.3% | +5.7% | +1594.4% |
| Dec 1989 | Dec 1989 | 2 | 3.7% | +13.0% | +1553.0% |
| Jan 1990 | Mar 1990 | 7 | 3.0% | +20.0% | +1515.4% |
| Mar 1990 | May 1990 | 10 | 6.9% | +45.9% | +1556.3% |
| Aug 1990 | Aug 1990 | 2 | 6.3% | +79.5% | +1560.8% |
| Sep 1990 | Oct 1990 | 4 | 5.5% | +84.1% | +1550.4% |
| Oct 1990 | Nov 1990 | 3 | 1.3% | +86.6% | +1550.4% |
| Sep 1999 | Feb 2001 | 75 | 39.7% | -24.7% | +184.2% |
| Mar 2001 | Apr 2001 | 4 | 8.0% | +25.7% | +183.0% |
| May 2001 | May 2001 | 1 | 0.7% | +22.3% | +174.0% |
| Aug 2001 | Nov 2001 | 10 | 8.0% | +27.2% | +176.6% |
| Nov 2001 | Dec 2001 | 1 | 0.2% | +25.0% | +177.1% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 3 | 6.1% | -67.7% | +68.8% |
| Sep 2007 | Mar 2012 | 238 | 88.5% | -60.7% | +68.0% |
| Apr 2012 | Apr 2012 | 2 | 4.0% | +33.5% | +626.2% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 4 | 5.8% | +48.5% | +623.9% |
| Jan 2016 | Apr 2016 | 15 | 13.7% | +69.5% | +379.0% |
| Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | 3 | 6.4% | +62.4% | +385.0% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 37 | 43.3% | +59.8% | +177.7% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 3 | 8.9% | +26.1% | +101.4% |
| Jun 2023 | Jun 2023 | 1 | 1.6% | +17.7% | +94.2% |
| Sep 2023 | Nov 2023 | 10 | 19.3% | +42.5% | +90.5% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 2 | 2.7% | +47.9% | +62.4% |
| Average | 19 | — | +27.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RF below its 200-week moving average?
No. Regions Financial Corporation (RF) is currently 35.0% above its 200-week moving average of $21.12. It would need to fall to $21.12 to cross below the line.
What is RF's 200-week moving average price?
Regions Financial Corporation's 200-week moving average is $21.12 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when RF drops below its 200-week moving average?
RF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +27.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is RF a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about RF as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 47. Return on equity is 11.9%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does RF compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in RF would have grown to $655, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 5.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. RF has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does RF pay a dividend?
Yes. Regions Financial Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 384.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18