RF
Regions Financial Corporation Financial Services - Banking Investor Relations →
Regions Financial Corporation (RF) closed at $28.62 as of 2026-06-19, trading 39.6% above its 200-week moving average of $20.50. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 43.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 71, RF is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.84 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2365 weeks of data, RF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought RF at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.8%.
With a market cap of $24.4 billion, RF is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 11.9%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.2% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in RF would have grown to $651, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. RF has returned 5.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -8.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: RF vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After RF Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying RF when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +24.0% after 12 months (median +27.0%), compared to +7.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 82% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +38.2% vs +14.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment RF crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices RF would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where RF's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-17.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $24.03 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $25.35 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $26.81 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $28.45 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $30.31 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from RF's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
RF has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +27.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1982 | Sep 1982 | 21 | 16.9% | +24.0% | +4814.6% |
| Nov 1987 | Feb 1988 | 13 | 14.9% | +4.4% | +1876.2% |
| Mar 1988 | Jun 1988 | 16 | 13.0% | +10.3% | +1771.9% |
| Jul 1988 | Jan 1989 | 29 | 10.8% | +14.7% | +1641.2% |
| Feb 1989 | Mar 1989 | 6 | 6.4% | +5.7% | +1584.4% |
| Dec 1989 | Dec 1989 | 2 | 4.8% | +12.9% | +1563.8% |
| Jan 1990 | Mar 1990 | 7 | 2.9% | +20.0% | +1505.9% |
| Mar 1990 | May 1990 | 10 | 6.8% | +45.9% | +1546.6% |
| Aug 1990 | Aug 1990 | 2 | 6.2% | +79.5% | +1551.1% |
| Sep 1990 | Oct 1990 | 4 | 5.4% | +85.2% | +1564.4% |
| Oct 1990 | Nov 1990 | 3 | 1.2% | +86.6% | +1540.7% |
| Sep 1999 | Feb 2001 | 75 | 39.7% | -24.7% | +182.5% |
| Mar 2001 | Apr 2001 | 4 | 8.0% | +25.8% | +184.0% |
| May 2001 | May 2001 | 1 | 0.6% | +22.3% | +172.4% |
| Jun 2001 | Jun 2001 | 1 | 0.2% | +20.6% | +171.1% |
| Aug 2001 | Nov 2001 | 10 | 8.8% | +27.2% | +175.0% |
| Nov 2001 | Dec 2001 | 1 | 0.1% | +25.0% | +175.5% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 3 | 6.0% | -67.7% | +67.8% |
| Sep 2007 | Mar 2012 | 238 | 88.5% | -60.7% | +67.0% |
| Apr 2012 | Apr 2012 | 2 | 3.9% | +33.5% | +622.0% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 4 | 5.8% | +48.5% | +619.6% |
| Jan 2016 | Apr 2016 | 14 | 13.7% | +83.6% | +408.7% |
| Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | 3 | 6.3% | +62.4% | +382.2% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 37 | 43.2% | +59.8% | +176.1% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 3 | 8.9% | +26.1% | +100.2% |
| Jun 2023 | Jun 2023 | 1 | 1.5% | +17.7% | +93.1% |
| Sep 2023 | Nov 2023 | 10 | 19.2% | +42.5% | +89.4% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 2 | 2.6% | +47.9% | +61.4% |
| Average | 19 | — | +27.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RF below its 200-week moving average?
No. Regions Financial Corporation (RF) is currently 39.6% above its 200-week moving average of $20.50. It would need to fall to $20.50 to cross below the line.
What is RF's 200-week moving average price?
Regions Financial Corporation's 200-week moving average is $20.50 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when RF drops below its 200-week moving average?
RF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +27.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is RF a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about RF as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 71 (overbought). Return on equity is 11.9%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does RF compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in RF would have grown to $651, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 5.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. RF has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19