REPX
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. Energy - Oil & Gas E&P Investor Relations →
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX) closed at $43.51 as of 2026-09-11, trading 57.0% above its 200-week moving average of $27.71. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 51.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 75, REPX is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.96 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1397 weeks of data, REPX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 44 weeks. Historically, investors who bought REPX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +32.5%.
With a market cap of $944 million, REPX is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 14.4%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 19.9%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.5x book value.
Share count has increased 7.7% over three years, indicating dilution. REPX passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 26.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in REPX would have grown to $5, compared to $830 for the S&P 500. REPX has returned -10.8% annualized vs 8.2% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 24.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: REPX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After REPX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying REPX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +29.6% after 12 months (median +4.0%), compared to +2.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 53% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -19.8% vs +10.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment REPX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices REPX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where REPX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $27.14 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $29.83 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $33.11 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $37.21 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $42.46 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $1.63 | $1.54 | -5.8% |
| 2026-05-06 | $1.10 | $1.02 | -7.3% |
| 2026-03-04 | $0.83 | $1.01 | +21.7% |
| 2025-11-05 | $1.03 | $0.88 | -14.6% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from REPX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
REPX has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +32.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2000 | May 2000 | 1 | 1.2% | +117.3% | -93.0% |
| Dec 2001 | Mar 2006 | 224 | 95.5% | -83.5% | -94.3% |
| Aug 2007 | Sep 2007 | 2 | 0.7% | +163.9% | -22.1% |
| Nov 2007 | Dec 2007 | 5 | 13.3% | -12.1% | -18.1% |
| Jan 2008 | Feb 2008 | 6 | 10.1% | +10.7% | -15.1% |
| Mar 2008 | Apr 2008 | 5 | 8.0% | -5.1% | -19.5% |
| Oct 2008 | Jan 2011 | 118 | 47.9% | -15.0% | -20.8% |
| Dec 2011 | Jan 2012 | 3 | 1.5% | -16.9% | -33.1% |
| Nov 2012 | Jan 2013 | 9 | 10.6% | -33.9% | -23.4% |
| Mar 2013 | Aug 2020 | 388 | 86.0% | -35.4% | -26.9% |
| Sep 2020 | Sep 2020 | 1 | 1.9% | +159.2% | +551.0% |
| Jan 2024 | Feb 2024 | 6 | 6.3% | +79.0% | +129.9% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 4 | 8.6% | +58.4% | +92.9% |
| May 2025 | Jun 2025 | 2 | 1.3% | +59.4% | +81.9% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 1 | 2.4% | +42.2% | +80.6% |
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2025 | 1 | 0.5% | N/A | +74.1% |
| Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 | 3 | 4.9% | N/A | +73.7% |
| Dec 2025 | Jan 2026 | 4 | 3.8% | N/A | +77.6% |
| Average | 44 | — | +32.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is REPX below its 200-week moving average?
No. Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX) is currently 57.0% above its 200-week moving average of $27.71. It would need to fall to $27.71 to cross below the line.
What is REPX's 200-week moving average price?
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $27.71 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when REPX drops below its 200-week moving average?
REPX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +32.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 44 weeks on average.
Is REPX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about REPX as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 75 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 14.4%. Return on equity is 19.9%. Price-to-book is 1.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does REPX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 26.8 years, $100 invested in REPX would have grown to $5, compared to $830 for the S&P 500. That's -10.8% annualized vs 8.2% for the index. REPX has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does REPX pay a dividend?
Yes. Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 370.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11