REPX
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. Energy - Oil & Gas E&P Investor Relations →
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX) closed at $34.27 as of 2026-07-31, trading 25.9% above its 200-week moving average of $27.23. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 29.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 50, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.98 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1391 weeks of data, REPX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 44 weeks. Historically, investors who bought REPX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +32.5%.
With a market cap of $744 million, REPX is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 21.2%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 11.4%. The stock trades at 1.3x book value.
Share count has increased 7.7% over three years, indicating dilution. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 26.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in REPX would have grown to $4, compared to $812 for the S&P 500. REPX has returned -11.6% annualized vs 8.2% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 24.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: REPX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After REPX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying REPX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +29.6% after 12 months (median +4.0%), compared to +2.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 53% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -19.8% vs +10.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment REPX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices REPX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where REPX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $28.17 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $33.06 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $40.01 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $50.66 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $69.03 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from REPX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
REPX has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +32.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2000 | May 2000 | 1 | 1.2% | +117.3% | -94.5% |
| Dec 2001 | Mar 2006 | 224 | 95.5% | -83.5% | -95.5% |
| Aug 2007 | Sep 2007 | 2 | 0.7% | +163.9% | -38.6% |
| Nov 2007 | Dec 2007 | 5 | 13.3% | -12.1% | -35.5% |
| Jan 2008 | Feb 2008 | 6 | 10.1% | +10.7% | -33.2% |
| Mar 2008 | Apr 2008 | 5 | 8.0% | -5.1% | -36.6% |
| Oct 2008 | Jan 2011 | 118 | 47.9% | -15.0% | -37.6% |
| Dec 2011 | Jan 2012 | 3 | 1.5% | -16.9% | -47.3% |
| Nov 2012 | Jan 2013 | 9 | 10.6% | -33.9% | -39.6% |
| Mar 2013 | Aug 2020 | 388 | 86.0% | -35.4% | -42.4% |
| Sep 2020 | Sep 2020 | 1 | 1.9% | +159.2% | +412.7% |
| Jan 2024 | Feb 2024 | 6 | 6.3% | +79.0% | +81.1% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 4 | 8.6% | +58.4% | +51.9% |
| May 2025 | Jun 2025 | 2 | 1.3% | +59.4% | +43.2% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 1 | 2.4% | +42.2% | +42.2% |
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2025 | 1 | 0.5% | N/A | +37.1% |
| Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 | 3 | 4.9% | N/A | +36.8% |
| Dec 2025 | Jan 2026 | 4 | 3.8% | N/A | +39.9% |
| Average | 44 | — | +32.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is REPX below its 200-week moving average?
No. Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX) is currently 25.9% above its 200-week moving average of $27.23. It would need to fall to $27.23 to cross below the line.
What is REPX's 200-week moving average price?
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $27.23 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when REPX drops below its 200-week moving average?
REPX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +32.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 44 weeks on average.
Is REPX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about REPX as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 50. Free cash flow yield is 21.2%. Return on equity is 11.4%. Price-to-book is 1.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does REPX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 26.7 years, $100 invested in REPX would have grown to $4, compared to $812 for the S&P 500. That's -11.6% annualized vs 8.2% for the index. REPX has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does REPX pay a dividend?
Yes. Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 477.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31