REPX
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. Energy - Oil & Gas E&P Investor Relations →
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX) closed at $32.82 as of 2026-06-19, trading 21.3% above its 200-week moving average of $27.07. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 30.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 50, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.03 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1385 weeks of data, REPX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 44 weeks. Historically, investors who bought REPX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +31.9%.
With a market cap of $712 million, REPX is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 22.1%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 11.4%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
Share count has increased 7.7% over three years, indicating dilution. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 26.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in REPX would have grown to $4, compared to $813 for the S&P 500. REPX has returned -11.8% annualized vs 8.2% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 24.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: REPX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After REPX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying REPX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +28.7% after 12 months (median +4.0%), compared to +1.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -19.8% vs +10.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment REPX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices REPX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where REPX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $28.83 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $33.98 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $41.39 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $52.91 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $73.33 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from REPX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
REPX has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +31.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2000 | May 2000 | 1 | 1.2% | +117.3% | -94.8% |
| Dec 2001 | Mar 2006 | 224 | 95.5% | -83.5% | -95.7% |
| Aug 2007 | Sep 2007 | 2 | 0.7% | +163.9% | -41.9% |
| Nov 2007 | Dec 2007 | 5 | 13.3% | -12.1% | -38.9% |
| Jan 2008 | Feb 2008 | 6 | 10.1% | +10.7% | -36.8% |
| Mar 2008 | Apr 2008 | 5 | 8.0% | -5.1% | -40.0% |
| Oct 2008 | Jan 2011 | 118 | 47.9% | -15.0% | -41.0% |
| Dec 2011 | Jan 2012 | 3 | 1.5% | -16.9% | -50.1% |
| Nov 2012 | Jan 2013 | 9 | 10.6% | -33.9% | -42.9% |
| Mar 2013 | Aug 2020 | 388 | 86.0% | -35.4% | -45.5% |
| Sep 2020 | Sep 2020 | 1 | 1.9% | +159.2% | +385.1% |
| Jan 2024 | Feb 2024 | 6 | 6.2% | +79.0% | +71.3% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 4 | 8.5% | +58.4% | +43.7% |
| May 2025 | Jun 2025 | 2 | 1.2% | +59.4% | +35.5% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 1 | 2.3% | N/A | +34.5% |
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2025 | 1 | 0.4% | N/A | +29.7% |
| Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 | 3 | 4.8% | N/A | +29.4% |
| Dec 2025 | Jan 2026 | 4 | 3.7% | N/A | +32.3% |
| Average | 44 | — | +31.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is REPX below its 200-week moving average?
No. Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX) is currently 21.3% above its 200-week moving average of $27.07. It would need to fall to $27.07 to cross below the line.
What is REPX's 200-week moving average price?
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $27.07 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when REPX drops below its 200-week moving average?
REPX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +31.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 44 weeks on average.
Is REPX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about REPX as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 50. Free cash flow yield is 22.1%. Return on equity is 11.4%. Price-to-book is 1.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does REPX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 26.6 years, $100 invested in REPX would have grown to $4, compared to $813 for the S&P 500. That's -11.8% annualized vs 8.2% for the index. REPX has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19