RDN
Radian Group Inc. Financial Services - Mortgage Insurance Investor Relations →
Radian Group Inc. (RDN) closed at $35.62 as of 2026-09-11, trading 21.8% above its 200-week moving average of $29.23. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 25.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 59, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.29 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1719 weeks of data, RDN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 22 weeks. Historically, investors who bought RDN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +37.2%.
With a market cap of $4.7 billion, RDN is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.5%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 12.0%. The stock trades at 1.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 13.7% over the past three years.
Over the past 33 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in RDN would have grown to $554, compared to $2920 for the S&P 500. RDN has returned 5.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 2 open-market purchases totaling $5,772,436.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: RDN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After RDN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying RDN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +46.6% after 12 months (median +41.0%), compared to +20.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 95% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +73.4% vs +34.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment RDN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices RDN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where RDN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-03.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $36.00 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $36.89 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $37.82 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $38.80 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $39.84 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $1.35 | $1.14 | -15.7% |
| 2026-05-06 | $1.20 | $1.23 | +2.4% |
| 2026-02-18 | $1.09 | $1.13 | +4.0% |
| 2025-11-04 | $1.01 | $1.07 | +6.2% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from RDN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
RDN has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +37.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1994 | Mar 1994 | 3 | 2.0% | +22.9% | +574.7% |
| Apr 1994 | Aug 1994 | 18 | 14.0% | +42.8% | +587.1% |
| Sep 1994 | Oct 1994 | 5 | 9.4% | +100.7% | +607.2% |
| Nov 1994 | Dec 1994 | 3 | 5.6% | +61.5% | +580.1% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 4.6% | +33.0% | +161.2% |
| Mar 1999 | Apr 1999 | 5 | 11.8% | +17.2% | +140.4% |
| Sep 1999 | Oct 1999 | 1 | 3.9% | +64.0% | +122.3% |
| Jan 2000 | Mar 2000 | 11 | 22.1% | +48.6% | +106.2% |
| Sep 2002 | Oct 2002 | 1 | 3.8% | +56.5% | +46.6% |
| Mar 2003 | Mar 2003 | 4 | 5.8% | +31.9% | +37.2% |
| Jul 2007 | Dec 2012 | 284 | 97.6% | -97.6% | -8.6% |
| Jan 2016 | Aug 2016 | 33 | 23.4% | +53.0% | +269.8% |
| Sep 2016 | Nov 2016 | 9 | 5.8% | +19.9% | +222.2% |
| Apr 2018 | Jun 2018 | 8 | 7.8% | +42.6% | +172.6% |
| Jun 2018 | Jul 2018 | 3 | 1.7% | +41.0% | +171.0% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 4 | 8.8% | +60.9% | +172.5% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 37 | 48.8% | +29.4% | +137.4% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 2 | 7.1% | +41.8% | +122.2% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 5 | 5.6% | +33.7% | +106.6% |
| Nov 2022 | Jan 2023 | 9 | 7.5% | +39.7% | +109.9% |
| Average | 22 | — | +37.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RDN below its 200-week moving average?
No. Radian Group Inc. (RDN) is currently 21.8% above its 200-week moving average of $29.23. It would need to fall to $29.23 to cross below the line.
What is RDN's 200-week moving average price?
Radian Group Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $29.23 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when RDN drops below its 200-week moving average?
RDN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +37.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 22 weeks on average.
Is RDN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about RDN as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 59. Free cash flow yield is 6.5%. Return on equity is 12.0%. Price-to-book is 1.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does RDN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33 years, $100 invested in RDN would have grown to $554, compared to $2920 for the S&P 500. That's 5.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. RDN has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does RDN pay a dividend?
Yes. Radian Group Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 282.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11