RDN
Radian Group Inc. Financial Services - Mortgage Insurance Investor Relations →
Radian Group Inc. (RDN) closed at $32.47 as of 2026-03-20, trading 18.6% above its 200-week moving average of $27.39. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 20.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 34, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.5x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1694 weeks of data, RDN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 22 weeks. Historically, investors who bought RDN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +37.2%.
With a market cap of $4.4 billion, RDN is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 13.1%. The stock trades at 0.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 13.7% over the past three years.
Over the past 32.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in RDN would have grown to $498, compared to $2472 for the S&P 500. RDN has returned 5.1% annualized vs 10.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: RDN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After RDN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying RDN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +46.6% after 12 months (median +41.0%), compared to +20.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 95% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +73.3% vs +35.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment RDN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
RDN has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +37.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1994 | Mar 1994 | 3 | 2.0% | +22.9% | +506.1% |
| Apr 1994 | Aug 1994 | 18 | 14.0% | +42.8% | +517.3% |
| Sep 1994 | Oct 1994 | 5 | 9.4% | +100.7% | +535.3% |
| Nov 1994 | Dec 1994 | 3 | 5.6% | +61.5% | +511.0% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 4.6% | +33.0% | +134.7% |
| Mar 1999 | Apr 1999 | 5 | 11.8% | +17.2% | +116.0% |
| Sep 1999 | Oct 1999 | 1 | 3.9% | +64.0% | +99.7% |
| Jan 2000 | Mar 2000 | 11 | 22.1% | +48.6% | +85.2% |
| Sep 2002 | Oct 2002 | 1 | 3.8% | +56.5% | +31.7% |
| Mar 2003 | Mar 2003 | 4 | 5.8% | +31.9% | +23.2% |
| Jul 2007 | Dec 2012 | 284 | 97.6% | -97.6% | -17.9% |
| Jan 2016 | Aug 2016 | 33 | 23.4% | +53.0% | +232.3% |
| Sep 2016 | Nov 2016 | 9 | 5.8% | +19.9% | +189.5% |
| Apr 2018 | Jun 2018 | 8 | 7.8% | +42.6% | +144.9% |
| Jun 2018 | Jul 2018 | 3 | 1.7% | +41.0% | +143.5% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 4 | 8.8% | +60.9% | +144.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 37 | 48.8% | +29.4% | +113.2% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 2 | 7.0% | +41.8% | +99.6% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 5 | 5.6% | +33.7% | +85.6% |
| Nov 2022 | Jan 2023 | 9 | 7.5% | +41.2% | +90.6% |
| Average | 22 | — | +37.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RDN below its 200-week moving average?
No. Radian Group Inc. (RDN) is currently 18.6% above its 200-week moving average of $27.39. It would need to fall to $27.39 to cross below the line.
What is RDN's 200-week moving average price?
Radian Group Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $27.39 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when RDN drops below its 200-week moving average?
RDN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +37.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 22 weeks on average.
Is RDN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about RDN as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 34. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 13.1%. Price-to-book is 0.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does RDN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32.5 years, $100 invested in RDN would have grown to $498, compared to $2472 for the S&P 500. That's 5.1% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. RDN has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does RDN pay a dividend?
Yes. Radian Group Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 314.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20