RCL
Royal Caribbean Group Consumer Discretionary - Cruise Lines Investor Relations →
Royal Caribbean Group (RCL) closed at $348.00 as of 2026-02-02, trading 127.4% above its 200-week moving average of $153.06. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 114.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 63, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1662 weeks of data, RCL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 29 weeks. Historically, investors who bought RCL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.3%.
With a market cap of $94.9 billion, RCL is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 47.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 9.4x book value.
Share count has increased 5.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 31.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in RCL would have grown to $3914, compared to $2692 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.2% vs 10.9% for the index — confirming RCL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: RCL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After RCL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying RCL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +18.1% after 12 months (median +20.0%), compared to +16.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +40.9% vs +35.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment RCL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
RCL has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +17.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1995 | Mar 1995 | 3 | 1.1% | -2.6% | +4200.0% |
| Apr 1995 | May 1995 | 3 | 5.1% | +13.2% | +4356.8% |
| May 1995 | Feb 1996 | 37 | 13.2% | +21.7% | +4337.6% |
| Feb 1996 | Mar 1996 | 4 | 2.2% | +25.7% | +4337.8% |
| Jul 1996 | Jul 1996 | 1 | 1.4% | +56.4% | +4247.5% |
| Dec 1996 | Jan 1997 | 6 | 3.2% | +103.5% | +4201.4% |
| Mar 2000 | Mar 2000 | 1 | 4.2% | -2.9% | +1742.5% |
| Mar 2000 | Jun 2003 | 168 | 71.5% | -16.0% | +1668.5% |
| May 2006 | May 2006 | 1 | 0.0% | +22.7% | +1144.6% |
| Jul 2006 | Sep 2006 | 9 | 10.5% | +16.8% | +1122.3% |
| Jul 2007 | Dec 2007 | 22 | 11.6% | -38.7% | +977.9% |
| Dec 2007 | Mar 2010 | 113 | 83.1% | -60.8% | +1003.7% |
| May 2010 | Jul 2010 | 10 | 19.5% | +41.2% | +1387.0% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 3 | 9.9% | -0.3% | +1539.7% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 11 | 20.2% | -4.7% | +1460.8% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 2 | 13.0% | +28.9% | +1509.6% |
| Dec 2011 | Jan 2012 | 4 | 5.7% | +33.1% | +1517.0% |
| May 2012 | Aug 2012 | 16 | 13.4% | +46.1% | +1498.6% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 1.7% | +45.3% | +298.9% |
| Feb 2020 | May 2023 | 166 | 76.6% | +17.1% | +344.8% |
| Average | 29 | — | +17.3% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02