RARE
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. Healthcare - Biotechnology Investor Relations →
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) closed at $19.87 as of 2026-03-20, trading 52.0% below its 200-week moving average of $41.35. This places RARE in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -48.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 21, RARE is in oversold territory.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.58 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 585 weeks of data, RARE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times. On average, these episodes lasted 43 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -13.2%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $1920 million, RARE is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -608.5%. The stock trades at -23.9x book value.
Share count has increased 37.4% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 11.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in RARE would have grown to $34, compared to $393 for the S&P 500. RARE has returned -9.1% annualized vs 12.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: RARE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After RARE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying RARE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -10.8% after 12 months (median -14.0%), compared to +11.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 22% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +10.1% vs +31.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment RARE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
RARE has crossed below its 200-week MA 9 times with an average 1-year return of +-13.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2016 | Apr 2016 | 10 | 21.1% | +23.2% | -64.6% |
| Apr 2016 | May 2016 | 4 | 12.5% | -4.8% | -70.6% |
| Jun 2016 | Sep 2016 | 14 | 27.1% | -6.9% | -67.7% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 4 | 17.4% | -12.4% | -67.7% |
| Mar 2017 | May 2018 | 60 | 32.7% | -24.8% | -70.7% |
| Oct 2018 | Apr 2019 | 25 | 44.5% | -34.0% | -69.3% |
| Apr 2019 | May 2020 | 55 | 41.1% | -9.1% | -69.2% |
| Jan 2022 | Mar 2022 | 12 | 18.4% | -36.8% | -73.1% |
| Apr 2022 | Ongoing | 205+ | 54.1% | Ongoing | -73.5% |
| Average | 43 | — | +-13.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RARE below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) is trading 52.0% below its 200-week moving average of $41.35. The current price is $19.87.
What is RARE's 200-week moving average price?
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $41.35 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when RARE drops below its 200-week moving average?
RARE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -13.2%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 43 weeks on average.
Is RARE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about RARE as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 21 (oversold). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is -608.5%. Price-to-book is -23.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does RARE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 11.2 years, $100 invested in RARE would have grown to $34, compared to $393 for the S&P 500. That's -9.1% annualized vs 12.9% for the index. RARE has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20