RARE
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. Healthcare - Biotechnology Investor Relations →
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) closed at $24.70 as of 2026-02-02, trading 42.1% below its 200-week moving average of $42.65. This places RARE in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -43.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 32, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 579 weeks of data, RARE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times. On average, these episodes lasted 43 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -13.2%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $2.4 billion, RARE is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -313.4%. The stock trades at 260.0x book value.
Share count has increased 33.4% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 11.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in RARE would have grown to $42, compared to $417 for the S&P 500. RARE has returned -7.4% annualized vs 13.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: RARE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After RARE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying RARE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -10.8% after 12 months (median -14.0%), compared to +11.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 22% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +10.1% vs +31.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment RARE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
RARE has crossed below its 200-week MA 9 times with an average 1-year return of +-13.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2016 | Apr 2016 | 10 | 21.1% | +23.2% | -56.0% |
| Apr 2016 | May 2016 | 4 | 12.5% | -4.8% | -63.5% |
| Jun 2016 | Sep 2016 | 14 | 27.1% | -6.9% | -59.9% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 4 | 17.4% | -12.4% | -59.9% |
| Mar 2017 | May 2018 | 60 | 32.7% | -24.8% | -63.6% |
| Oct 2018 | Apr 2019 | 25 | 44.5% | -34.0% | -61.8% |
| Apr 2019 | May 2020 | 55 | 41.1% | -9.1% | -61.7% |
| Jan 2022 | Mar 2022 | 12 | 18.4% | -36.8% | -66.5% |
| Apr 2022 | Ongoing | 199+ | 54.1% | Ongoing | -67.1% |
| Average | 43 | — | +-13.2% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02