RAIL
FreightCar America, Inc. Industrials - Railcar Manufacturing Investor Relations →
FreightCar America, Inc. (RAIL) closed at $9.32 as of 2026-06-19, trading 50.1% above its 200-week moving average of $6.21. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 31.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 61, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.18 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1058 weeks of data, RAIL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times. On average, these episodes lasted 40 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -12.7%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $178 million, RAIL is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.2%. The stock trades at -2.7x book value.
Share count has increased 10.8% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 20.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in RAIL would have grown to $16, compared to $838 for the S&P 500. RAIL has returned -8.5% annualized vs 11.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: RAIL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After RAIL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying RAIL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -10.4% after 12 months (median -20.0%), compared to +7.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 21% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -3.9% vs +19.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment RAIL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices RAIL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where RAIL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-03.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $5.17 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $6.28 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $7.98 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $10.96 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $17.50 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from RAIL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
RAIL has crossed below its 200-week MA 19 times with an average 1-year return of +-12.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2007 | Apr 2007 | 1 | 1.7% | -21.3% | -77.6% |
| Apr 2007 | May 2007 | 3 | 4.2% | -19.7% | -77.5% |
| Jul 2007 | Jan 2011 | 179 | 64.9% | -15.8% | -75.8% |
| Jan 2011 | Jan 2011 | 1 | 1.1% | -23.3% | -64.2% |
| Feb 2011 | Feb 2011 | 1 | 0.4% | -2.9% | -63.9% |
| May 2011 | Jul 2011 | 7 | 9.6% | -26.7% | -61.5% |
| Jul 2011 | Feb 2012 | 29 | 45.3% | -16.1% | -58.8% |
| Mar 2012 | Dec 2012 | 41 | 19.8% | -5.4% | -55.6% |
| Feb 2013 | Nov 2013 | 37 | 25.3% | +5.1% | -54.6% |
| Feb 2014 | Feb 2014 | 1 | 0.1% | +20.0% | -55.8% |
| Jul 2014 | Aug 2014 | 2 | 2.8% | -17.8% | -55.8% |
| May 2015 | Nov 2015 | 24 | 25.7% | -34.3% | -56.4% |
| Nov 2015 | Jul 2018 | 139 | 47.5% | -32.1% | -56.9% |
| Aug 2018 | Mar 2022 | 187 | 93.5% | -77.2% | -47.8% |
| Apr 2022 | Aug 2022 | 15 | 24.9% | -40.5% | +79.9% |
| Aug 2022 | Oct 2022 | 8 | 14.3% | -31.8% | +131.3% |
| Nov 2022 | Mar 2024 | 69 | 32.7% | -34.2% | +155.3% |
| Apr 2024 | Aug 2024 | 17 | 17.9% | +55.7% | +159.6% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 3.0% | +77.4% | +100.9% |
| Average | 40 | — | +-12.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RAIL below its 200-week moving average?
No. FreightCar America, Inc. (RAIL) is currently 50.1% above its 200-week moving average of $6.21. It would need to fall to $6.21 to cross below the line.
What is RAIL's 200-week moving average price?
FreightCar America, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $6.21 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when RAIL drops below its 200-week moving average?
RAIL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -12.7%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 40 weeks on average.
Is RAIL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about RAIL as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 61. Free cash flow yield is 2.2%. Price-to-book is -2.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does RAIL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 20.3 years, $100 invested in RAIL would have grown to $16, compared to $838 for the S&P 500. That's -8.5% annualized vs 11.0% for the index. RAIL has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19