PUBM
PubMatic Inc. Technology - Digital Advertising Investor Relations →
PubMatic Inc. (PUBM) closed at $11.30 as of 2026-06-19, trading 19.7% below its 200-week moving average of $14.08. This places PUBM in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -19.7% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 75, PUBM is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 0.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.06 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 240 weeks of data, PUBM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 1 time. On average, these episodes lasted 238 weeks.
With a market cap of $525 million, PUBM is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 10.1%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at -6.6%. The stock trades at 2.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 11.0% over the past three years. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 4.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PUBM would have grown to $31, compared to $175 for the S&P 500. PUBM has returned -22.0% annualized vs 12.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 6.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PUBM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PUBM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 1 historical episodes, buying PUBM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -56.0% after 12 months (median -56.0%), compared to -9.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. After 24 months, the average return was -52.0% vs +3.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PUBM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices PUBM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where PUBM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $6.17 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $7.10 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $8.34 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $10.12 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $12.86 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PUBM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PUBM has crossed below its 200-week MA 1 time
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2021 | Ongoing | 238+ | 57.7% | Ongoing | -68.6% |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PUBM below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, PubMatic Inc. (PUBM) is trading 19.7% below its 200-week moving average of $14.08. The current price is $11.30.
What is PUBM's 200-week moving average price?
PubMatic Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $14.08 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PUBM drops below its 200-week moving average?
PUBM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 1 time in our data. These episodes lasted 238 weeks on average.
Is PUBM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PUBM as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 75 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 10.1%. Return on equity is -6.6%. Price-to-book is 2.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PUBM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 4.7 years, $100 invested in PUBM would have grown to $31, compared to $175 for the S&P 500. That's -22.0% annualized vs 12.7% for the index. PUBM has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19