PSX
Phillips 66 Energy - Refining Investor Relations →
Phillips 66 (PSX) closed at $166.14 as of 2026-06-19, trading 40.1% above its 200-week moving average of $118.62. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 51.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 47, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.00 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 692 weeks of data, PSX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 11 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PSX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +29.4%.
With a market cap of $66.6 billion, PSX is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 14.5%. The stock trades at 2.3x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 13.9% over the past three years.
Over the past 13.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PSX would have grown to $376, compared to $600 for the S&P 500. PSX has returned 10.4% annualized vs 14.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 5 open-market purchases totaling $1,249,517. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -32.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PSX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PSX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying PSX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +28.5% after 12 months (median +24.0%), compared to +9.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +31.3% vs +27.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PSX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PSX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PSX has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +29.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2015 | Jan 2015 | 1 | 0.5% | +32.5% | +314.9% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 1.5% | +42.5% | +171.8% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 3 | 4.5% | -13.2% | +161.8% |
| Feb 2020 | Feb 2021 | 52 | 44.9% | +17.0% | +185.8% |
| Apr 2021 | May 2021 | 4 | 7.3% | +11.6% | +156.6% |
| Jul 2021 | Oct 2021 | 12 | 19.8% | +14.7% | +169.4% |
| Oct 2021 | Jan 2022 | 10 | 13.5% | +45.5% | +165.0% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 4.0% | +84.9% | +75.6% |
| Average | 11 | — | +29.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PSX below its 200-week moving average?
No. Phillips 66 (PSX) is currently 40.1% above its 200-week moving average of $118.62. It would need to fall to $118.62 to cross below the line.
What is PSX's 200-week moving average price?
Phillips 66's 200-week moving average is $118.62 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PSX drops below its 200-week moving average?
PSX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +29.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 11 weeks on average.
Is PSX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PSX as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 47. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 14.5%. Price-to-book is 2.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PSX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 13.3 years, $100 invested in PSX would have grown to $376, compared to $600 for the S&P 500. That's 10.4% annualized vs 14.4% for the index. PSX has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19