PSX
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Phillips 66 (PSX) closed at $157.80 as of 2026-02-02, trading 41.3% above its 200-week moving average of $111.65. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 29.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 65, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 673 weeks of data, PSX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 11 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PSX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.5%.
With a market cap of $63.8 billion, PSX is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 16.0%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 13 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PSX would have grown to $351, compared to $552 for the S&P 500. PSX has returned 10.1% annualized vs 14.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 4 open-market purchases totaling $1,238,890. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -17.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: PSX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PSX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying PSX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +20.4% after 12 months (median +17.0%), compared to +7.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +31.3% vs +27.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PSX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
PSX has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +21.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2015 | Jan 2015 | 1 | 0.5% | +32.5% | +288.1% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 1.5% | +42.5% | +154.2% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 3 | 4.5% | -13.2% | +144.9% |
| Feb 2020 | Feb 2021 | 52 | 44.9% | +17.0% | +167.3% |
| Apr 2021 | May 2021 | 4 | 7.3% | +11.6% | +140.0% |
| Jul 2021 | Oct 2021 | 12 | 19.8% | +14.7% | +152.0% |
| Oct 2021 | Jan 2022 | 10 | 13.5% | +45.5% | +147.8% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 4.0% | N/A | +64.2% |
| Average | 11 | — | +21.5% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02