PRU
Prudential Financial Inc. Financial Services - Insurance Investor Relations →
Prudential Financial Inc. (PRU) closed at $118.40 as of 2026-09-18, trading 22.7% above its 200-week moving average of $96.47. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 23.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 68, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.85 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1244 weeks of data, PRU has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PRU at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +10.6%.
With a market cap of $40.8 billion, PRU is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 18.4%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 12.0%. The stock trades at 1.3x book value.
Over the past 23.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PRU would have grown to $840, compared to $1253 for the S&P 500. PRU has returned 9.3% annualized vs 11.2% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 6.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PRU vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PRU Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying PRU when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +14.7% after 12 months (median +20.0%), compared to +12.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +40.7% vs +33.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PRU crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices PRU would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where PRU's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $109.53 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $114.08 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $119.01 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $124.40 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $130.29 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | $3.52 | $4.08 | +16.0% |
| 2026-05-05 | $3.10 | $3.61 | +16.5% |
| 2026-02-03 | $3.36 | $3.30 | -1.9% |
| 2025-10-29 | $3.73 | $4.01 | +7.7% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PRU's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PRU has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +10.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2002 | Dec 2002 | 2 | 2.4% | +24.5% | +738.1% |
| Feb 2003 | Apr 2003 | 10 | 4.8% | +50.9% | +725.2% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 2 | 4.0% | -83.0% | +243.3% |
| May 2008 | May 2008 | 1 | 0.6% | -34.3% | +227.9% |
| Jun 2008 | Sep 2008 | 13 | 22.2% | -40.8% | +231.7% |
| Sep 2008 | Apr 2010 | 82 | 83.8% | -32.7% | +223.2% |
| May 2010 | Dec 2010 | 33 | 16.8% | +11.9% | +289.0% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 11 | 16.9% | -0.8% | +310.2% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 2 | 10.0% | +3.7% | +343.2% |
| Dec 2011 | Dec 2011 | 1 | 3.1% | +9.4% | +347.5% |
| May 2012 | Jul 2012 | 10 | 8.1% | +54.3% | +366.6% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 7 | 13.9% | +55.5% | +174.3% |
| Mar 2016 | Apr 2016 | 3 | 2.3% | +53.9% | +169.1% |
| Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | 4 | 2.9% | +53.8% | +161.4% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 6 | 10.8% | +12.3% | +102.8% |
| Jul 2019 | Sep 2019 | 6 | 10.8% | -24.5% | +92.5% |
| Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | 1 | 2.0% | -22.5% | +92.8% |
| Feb 2020 | Feb 2021 | 51 | 53.0% | +22.6% | +118.3% |
| Mar 2023 | Apr 2023 | 4 | 7.6% | +52.7% | +80.9% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 4 | 6.0% | +44.4% | +72.0% |
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | 3 | 3.3% | N/A | +32.0% |
| Apr 2026 | Apr 2026 | 1 | 1.4% | N/A | +28.9% |
| Average | 12 | — | +10.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PRU below its 200-week moving average?
No. Prudential Financial Inc. (PRU) is currently 22.7% above its 200-week moving average of $96.47. It would need to fall to $96.47 to cross below the line.
What is PRU's 200-week moving average price?
Prudential Financial Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $96.47 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PRU drops below its 200-week moving average?
PRU has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +10.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.
Is PRU a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PRU as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 68. Free cash flow yield is 18.4%. Return on equity is 12.0%. Price-to-book is 1.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PRU compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 23.9 years, $100 invested in PRU would have grown to $840, compared to $1253 for the S&P 500. That's 9.3% annualized vs 11.2% for the index. PRU has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PRU pay a dividend?
Yes. Prudential Financial Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 473.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18