PRU
Prudential Financial Inc. Financial Services - Insurance Investor Relations →
Prudential Financial Inc. (PRU) closed at $122.08 as of 2026-07-31, trading 26.8% above its 200-week moving average of $96.27. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 24.9% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 89, PRU is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.03 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1237 weeks of data, PRU has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PRU at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +10.6%.
Return on equity stands at 10.7%. The stock trades at 1.3x book value.
Over the past 23.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PRU would have grown to $856, compared to $1226 for the S&P 500. PRU has returned 9.5% annualized vs 11.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 6.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PRU vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PRU Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying PRU when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +14.7% after 12 months (median +20.0%), compared to +12.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +40.7% vs +33.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PRU crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices PRU would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where PRU's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $83.53 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $89.35 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $96.04 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $103.82 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $112.96 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PRU's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PRU has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +10.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2002 | Dec 2002 | 2 | 2.4% | +24.5% | +754.3% |
| Feb 2003 | Apr 2003 | 10 | 4.8% | +50.9% | +741.2% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 2 | 4.0% | -83.0% | +249.9% |
| May 2008 | May 2008 | 1 | 0.6% | -34.3% | +234.2% |
| Jun 2008 | Sep 2008 | 13 | 22.2% | -40.8% | +238.2% |
| Sep 2008 | Apr 2010 | 82 | 83.8% | -32.7% | +229.5% |
| May 2010 | Dec 2010 | 33 | 16.8% | +11.9% | +296.6% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 11 | 16.9% | -0.8% | +318.1% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 2 | 10.0% | +3.7% | +351.8% |
| Dec 2011 | Dec 2011 | 1 | 3.1% | +9.4% | +356.1% |
| May 2012 | Jul 2012 | 10 | 8.1% | +54.3% | +375.6% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 7 | 13.9% | +55.5% | +179.6% |
| Mar 2016 | Apr 2016 | 3 | 2.3% | +53.9% | +174.3% |
| Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | 4 | 2.9% | +53.8% | +166.5% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 6 | 10.8% | +12.3% | +106.7% |
| Jul 2019 | Sep 2019 | 6 | 10.8% | -24.5% | +96.2% |
| Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | 1 | 2.0% | -22.5% | +96.5% |
| Feb 2020 | Feb 2021 | 51 | 53.0% | +22.6% | +122.5% |
| Mar 2023 | Apr 2023 | 4 | 7.6% | +52.7% | +84.3% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 4 | 6.0% | +44.4% | +75.3% |
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | 3 | 3.3% | N/A | +34.5% |
| Apr 2026 | Apr 2026 | 1 | 1.4% | N/A | +31.3% |
| Average | 12 | — | +10.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PRU below its 200-week moving average?
No. Prudential Financial Inc. (PRU) is currently 26.8% above its 200-week moving average of $96.27. It would need to fall to $96.27 to cross below the line.
What is PRU's 200-week moving average price?
Prudential Financial Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $96.27 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PRU drops below its 200-week moving average?
PRU has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +10.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.
Is PRU a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PRU as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 89 (overbought). Return on equity is 10.7%. Price-to-book is 1.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PRU compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 23.8 years, $100 invested in PRU would have grown to $856, compared to $1226 for the S&P 500. That's 9.5% annualized vs 11.1% for the index. PRU has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PRU pay a dividend?
Yes. Prudential Financial Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 456.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31