PRGS
Progress Software Corporation Technology - Infrastructure Software Investor Relations →
Progress Software Corporation (PRGS) closed at $29.68 as of 2026-06-19, trading 42.4% below its 200-week moving average of $51.50. This places PRGS in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -39.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 42, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.79 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1772 weeks of data, PRGS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 40 times. On average, these episodes lasted 11 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PRGS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.3%.
With a market cap of $1249 million, PRGS is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 19.8%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 18.3%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.5x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PRGS would have grown to $547, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. PRGS has returned 5.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 7.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PRGS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PRGS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 40 historical episodes, buying PRGS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +11.9% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +13.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 62% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +35.8% vs +27.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PRGS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices PRGS would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where PRGS's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-06-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $25.15 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $29.19 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $34.78 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $43.02 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $56.38 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PRGS's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PRGS has crossed below its 200-week MA 40 times with an average 1-year return of +17.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1992 | Jul 1992 | 3 | 7.2% | +24.5% | +741.7% |
| Aug 1992 | Aug 1992 | 1 | 1.3% | +37.5% | +691.9% |
| Apr 1993 | Jun 1993 | 11 | 19.0% | +32.5% | +697.1% |
| Dec 1993 | Mar 1994 | 10 | 11.5% | -13.7% | +587.8% |
| Apr 1994 | Apr 1994 | 1 | 0.3% | +7.4% | +583.9% |
| May 1994 | Jan 1995 | 36 | 35.2% | +15.3% | +702.4% |
| Apr 1995 | May 1995 | 1 | 5.3% | -15.4% | +643.0% |
| Feb 1996 | Sep 1997 | 84 | 43.1% | -29.5% | +625.1% |
| Dec 1997 | Dec 1997 | 3 | 4.8% | +132.5% | +652.3% |
| Aug 2000 | Aug 2000 | 2 | 1.3% | +37.7% | +313.6% |
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 1 | 3.2% | +14.8% | +315.8% |
| Apr 2001 | Apr 2001 | 3 | 2.7% | +28.3% | +278.5% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 3 | 6.4% | -6.0% | +255.7% |
| Nov 2001 | Nov 2001 | 1 | 0.8% | -16.4% | +236.6% |
| May 2002 | Mar 2003 | 45 | 27.5% | +27.2% | +232.1% |
| Jun 2006 | Aug 2006 | 8 | 8.5% | +45.8% | +123.6% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 5 | 9.1% | -17.2% | +88.5% |
| Sep 2008 | Dec 2009 | 68 | 46.1% | -21.5% | +81.9% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 8 | 10.4% | +7.5% | +79.4% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 5.7% | +8.8% | +81.2% |
| Dec 2011 | Jan 2012 | 4 | 7.3% | +11.2% | +73.7% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 5 | 9.3% | +23.6% | +70.9% |
| Jul 2012 | Sep 2012 | 8 | 4.1% | +26.9% | +68.7% |
| Oct 2012 | Dec 2012 | 12 | 8.3% | +39.3% | +80.1% |
| Apr 2013 | Apr 2013 | 1 | 3.3% | +5.5% | +61.1% |
| Jun 2013 | Jun 2013 | 1 | 1.2% | +4.3% | +55.1% |
| Mar 2014 | Jun 2014 | 16 | 9.1% | +18.5% | +48.5% |
| Jul 2014 | Aug 2014 | 1 | 1.2% | +28.7% | +45.0% |
| Aug 2014 | Sep 2014 | 5 | 1.2% | +20.0% | +43.4% |
| Sep 2015 | Oct 2015 | 1 | 3.0% | +18.3% | +45.4% |
| Nov 2015 | Nov 2015 | 1 | 0.4% | +22.1% | +40.7% |
| Nov 2015 | Jan 2016 | 6 | 5.7% | +21.2% | +41.0% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 2 | 6.1% | +18.6% | +41.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 5 | 15.1% | +28.4% | -8.4% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 1 | 0.3% | +26.3% | -11.2% |
| Jul 2020 | Aug 2020 | 4 | 4.3% | +29.5% | -12.4% |
| Aug 2020 | Sep 2020 | 4 | 3.8% | +34.3% | -10.9% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 0.8% | +43.6% | -13.7% |
| Mar 2025 | Mar 2025 | 1 | 1.2% | -46.2% | -42.2% |
| Jul 2025 | Ongoing | 50+ | 50.8% | Ongoing | -40.2% |
| Average | 11 | — | +17.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PRGS below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Progress Software Corporation (PRGS) is trading 42.4% below its 200-week moving average of $51.50. The current price is $29.68.
What is PRGS's 200-week moving average price?
Progress Software Corporation's 200-week moving average is $51.50 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PRGS drops below its 200-week moving average?
PRGS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 40 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +17.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 11 weeks on average.
Is PRGS a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PRGS as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 42. Free cash flow yield is 19.8%. Return on equity is 18.3%. Price-to-book is 2.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PRGS compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in PRGS would have grown to $547, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 5.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. PRGS has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19