POWL
Powell Industries, Inc. Industrials - Electrical Equipment Investor Relations →
Powell Industries, Inc. (POWL) closed at $297.20 as of 2026-06-19, trading 327.9% above its 200-week moving average of $69.45. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 333.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 84, POWL is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.98 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2365 weeks of data, POWL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times. On average, these episodes lasted 35 weeks. Historically, investors who bought POWL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +0.1%.
With a market cap of $10.8 billion, POWL is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.3%. Return on equity stands at 29.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 15.3x book value.
Share count has increased 2.4% over three years, indicating dilution. POWL passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in POWL would have grown to $12936, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.6% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming POWL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: POWL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After POWL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 29 historical episodes, buying POWL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +6.7% after 12 months (median +1.0%), compared to +11.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 52% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +31.0% vs +24.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment POWL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices POWL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where POWL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $207.35 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $238.15 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $279.69 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $338.79 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $429.56 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from POWL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
POWL has crossed below its 200-week MA 34 times with an average 1-year return of +0.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1981 | Apr 1983 | 95 | 39.1% | -30.0% | +24478.4% |
| May 1983 | May 1983 | 1 | 0.6% | -26.5% | +28815.7% |
| Jul 1983 | Jan 1984 | 25 | 29.3% | -25.0% | +30623.0% |
| Jan 1984 | May 1985 | 69 | 49.8% | -28.6% | +35012.0% |
| Jun 1985 | Jan 1989 | 185 | 70.4% | -36.0% | +39225.4% |
| Jun 1992 | Oct 1992 | 17 | 16.2% | +5.8% | +18806.4% |
| Nov 1992 | Jan 1993 | 6 | 4.9% | -17.7% | +15757.0% |
| Apr 1993 | Nov 1995 | 137 | 38.5% | -13.3% | +16285.6% |
| Aug 1998 | Jan 1999 | 19 | 28.2% | -13.8% | +12189.2% |
| Jan 1999 | Sep 2000 | 85 | 53.8% | -34.9% | +11331.8% |
| Oct 2000 | Dec 2000 | 9 | 6.6% | +98.8% | +11135.8% |
| Jan 2003 | Jun 2003 | 23 | 17.4% | +23.7% | +8277.1% |
| Jul 2003 | Aug 2003 | 4 | 5.9% | +5.1% | +7849.0% |
| Nov 2003 | Nov 2003 | 1 | 4.6% | +3.8% | +7678.0% |
| Dec 2003 | Dec 2003 | 1 | 3.6% | +1.9% | +7504.7% |
| Feb 2004 | Mar 2004 | 8 | 9.0% | +8.3% | +7202.0% |
| Apr 2004 | May 2005 | 56 | 13.3% | +5.7% | +7133.2% |
| Dec 2005 | Jan 2006 | 2 | 0.4% | +81.9% | +6757.8% |
| Oct 2008 | Mar 2009 | 22 | 37.2% | +30.9% | +4124.5% |
| Dec 2009 | Apr 2010 | 18 | 15.7% | +1.7% | +3711.8% |
| Apr 2010 | Jan 2011 | 36 | 21.1% | +17.7% | +3559.7% |
| Mar 2011 | Mar 2011 | 1 | 1.5% | -3.1% | +3390.3% |
| May 2011 | Jun 2011 | 8 | 9.8% | -14.0% | +3320.3% |
| Aug 2011 | May 2012 | 40 | 21.5% | +6.7% | +3438.5% |
| Sep 2014 | Oct 2014 | 4 | 12.1% | -23.4% | +2945.4% |
| Nov 2014 | Dec 2014 | 4 | 6.0% | -21.9% | +2662.8% |
| Jan 2015 | Nov 2016 | 98 | 45.6% | -41.0% | +2622.1% |
| Dec 2016 | May 2018 | 74 | 28.9% | -26.8% | +2747.1% |
| Oct 2018 | Nov 2018 | 4 | 5.7% | +25.2% | +3326.8% |
| Nov 2018 | Feb 2019 | 12 | 21.8% | +37.5% | +3482.3% |
| Mar 2019 | May 2019 | 9 | 13.1% | +5.2% | +3338.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Jan 2021 | 44 | 38.2% | +10.9% | +3167.5% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 4 | 4.6% | +8.3% | +3355.1% |
| Jul 2021 | Dec 2022 | 73 | 33.4% | -19.1% | +3239.4% |
| Average | 35 | — | +0.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is POWL below its 200-week moving average?
No. Powell Industries, Inc. (POWL) is currently 327.9% above its 200-week moving average of $69.45. It would need to fall to $69.45 to cross below the line.
What is POWL's 200-week moving average price?
Powell Industries, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $69.45 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when POWL drops below its 200-week moving average?
POWL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +0.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 35 weeks on average.
Is POWL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about POWL as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 84 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 1.3%. Return on equity is 29.9%. Price-to-book is 15.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does POWL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in POWL would have grown to $12936, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 15.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. POWL has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does POWL pay a dividend?
Yes. Powell Industries, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 12.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19