POOL
Pool Corporation Consumer Discretionary - Leisure Products Investor Relations →
Pool Corporation (POOL) closed at $167.96 as of 2026-09-18, trading 44.6% below its 200-week moving average of $303.09. This places POOL in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -43.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 39, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.17 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1566 weeks of data, POOL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 27 weeks. Historically, investors who bought POOL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +22.7%.
With a market cap of $6.1 billion, POOL is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.5%. Return on equity stands at 31.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 4.8x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.4% over the past three years.
Over the past 30.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in POOL would have grown to $13400, compared to $1855 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 17.7% vs 10.2% for the index — confirming POOL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -11.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: POOL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After POOL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying POOL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +13.6% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +21.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +21.8% vs +39.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment POOL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices POOL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where POOL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-22.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $166.69 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $182.75 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $202.24 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $226.38 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $257.06 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | $5.34 | $5.38 | +0.8% |
| 2026-04-23 | $1.35 | $1.43 | +6.2% |
| 2026-02-19 | $0.98 | $0.84 | -14.2% |
| 2025-10-23 | $3.37 | $3.39 | +0.7% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from POOL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
POOL has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +22.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 0.5% | +131.4% | +11627.5% |
| Aug 2007 | Apr 2010 | 139 | 61.2% | -28.3% | +580.9% |
| May 2010 | May 2010 | 1 | 3.1% | +31.8% | +808.4% |
| May 2010 | Nov 2010 | 26 | 16.1% | +20.9% | +798.4% |
| Sep 2022 | Sep 2022 | 1 | 0.4% | +11.3% | -42.7% |
| Oct 2022 | Nov 2022 | 4 | 10.2% | +13.5% | -41.6% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 4 | 6.9% | +26.9% | -43.0% |
| Mar 2023 | Apr 2023 | 4 | 3.1% | +29.6% | -45.3% |
| May 2023 | Jun 2023 | 5 | 4.7% | +11.8% | -47.4% |
| Aug 2023 | Aug 2023 | 1 | 0.2% | +0.1% | -49.4% |
| Sep 2023 | Dec 2023 | 14 | 13.4% | +0.4% | -48.6% |
| Apr 2024 | Ongoing | 127+ | 44.6% | Ongoing | -51.3% |
| Average | 27 | — | +22.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is POOL below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Pool Corporation (POOL) is trading 44.6% below its 200-week moving average of $303.09. The current price is $167.96.
What is POOL's 200-week moving average price?
Pool Corporation's 200-week moving average is $303.09 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when POOL drops below its 200-week moving average?
POOL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +22.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 27 weeks on average.
Is POOL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about POOL as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 39. Free cash flow yield is 3.5%. Return on equity is 31.3%. Price-to-book is 4.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does POOL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 30.1 years, $100 invested in POOL would have grown to $13400, compared to $1855 for the S&P 500. That's 17.7% annualized vs 10.2% for the index. POOL has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does POOL pay a dividend?
Yes. Pool Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 310.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18