PODD

Insulet Corporation Healthcare - Medical Devices Investor Relations →

YES
41.1% BELOW
↓ Approaching Was -39.7% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $247.56
14-Week RSI 22 📉
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 1.4x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 0.77

Insulet Corporation (PODD) closed at $145.76 as of 2026-06-19, trading 41.1% below its 200-week moving average of $247.56. This places PODD in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -39.7% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 22, PODD is in oversold territory.

Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.77 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 948 weeks of data, PODD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PODD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.1%.

With a market cap of $10.1 billion, PODD is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.5%. Return on equity stands at 23.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 7.8x book value.

Over the past 18.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PODD would have grown to $723, compared to $754 for the S&P 500. PODD has returned 11.4% annualized vs 11.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.

Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: PODD vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After PODD Crosses Below the Line?

Across 13 historical episodes, buying PODD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +17.2% after 12 months (median +23.0%), compared to +7.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +82.1% vs +23.8% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PODD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices PODD would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score +1.37σ
Current FCF Yield 3.65%
Baseline Yield 2.74%
Historical σ 0.35pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where PODD's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-06.

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$144.53Unusually cheap — potential buy zone
Value+1σ$158.80Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$176.20Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$197.88Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$225.64Unusually expensive — potential trim zone

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 22 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

11 / 13 weeks minimum

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from PODD's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

Yield Dislocation N/A Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score +1.59σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative +0.49σ Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration -0.1pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity 58th TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History +1.6pp Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Improving Accrual gap trend (-10.2pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

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Historical Touches

PODD has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +17.1% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Apr 2008Apr 200814.2%-70.3%+702.6%
May 2008Dec 20098380.2%-60.8%+746.0%
Feb 2010Feb 201011.7%+31.9%+1016.1%
Nov 2010Nov 201026.2%+36.2%+1040.5%
Apr 2015Jun 201556.9%+23.5%+440.5%
Aug 2015Oct 201589.7%+51.5%+407.9%
Oct 2015Nov 201512.1%+23.8%+387.5%
Feb 2016Mar 2016821.1%+51.8%+417.4%
May 2016Jul 20161017.2%+41.4%+389.6%
Nov 2016Dec 201613.9%+112.1%+337.5%
Aug 2023Nov 20246547.0%-19.1%-35.3%
Mar 2025Apr 202510.0%-16.7%-40.6%
Feb 2026Ongoing20+41.9%Ongoing-39.8%
Average16+17.1%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is PODD below its 200-week moving average?

Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Insulet Corporation (PODD) is trading 41.1% below its 200-week moving average of $247.56. The current price is $145.76.

What is PODD's 200-week moving average price?

Insulet Corporation's 200-week moving average is $247.56 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when PODD drops below its 200-week moving average?

PODD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +17.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.

Is PODD a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about PODD as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 22 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 2.5%. Return on equity is 23.0%. Price-to-book is 7.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does PODD compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 18.2 years, $100 invested in PODD would have grown to $723, compared to $754 for the S&P 500. That's 11.4% annualized vs 11.7% for the index. PODD has underperformed the broader market over this period.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-06-19