PNW
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Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW) closed at $94.21 as of 2026-09-18, trading 18.1% above its 200-week moving average of $79.76. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 20.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 34, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.03 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2747 weeks of data, PNW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PNW at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.9%.
With a market cap of $11.4 billion, PNW is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 9.4%. The stock trades at 1.6x book value.
Share count has increased 6.8% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PNW would have grown to $1875, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. PNW has returned 9.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PNW vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PNW Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying PNW when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +21.2% after 12 months (median +21.0%), compared to +11.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 83% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +32.6% vs +23.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PNW crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. PNW currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | $1.47 | $1.43 | -2.7% |
| 2026-05-04 | — | $0.27 | +15889.5% |
| 2026-02-25 | $0.02 | $0.13 | +472.7% |
| 2025-11-03 | $3.09 | $3.39 | +9.7% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PNW's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PNW has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +11.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1974 | Jan 1976 | 103 | 34.6% | -26.5% | +2481.1% |
| Feb 1976 | Jul 1976 | 23 | 8.4% | +16.2% | +2977.5% |
| May 1979 | May 1979 | 1 | 0.0% | -4.1% | +2603.2% |
| Oct 1979 | Jun 1980 | 36 | 22.8% | -6.6% | +2549.5% |
| Jun 1980 | Nov 1981 | 71 | 18.8% | -9.3% | +2567.2% |
| Feb 1982 | Feb 1982 | 1 | 0.6% | +30.1% | +2640.2% |
| Dec 1983 | Sep 1984 | 40 | 19.6% | +17.1% | +2532.1% |
| Oct 1984 | Nov 1984 | 4 | 1.9% | +24.8% | +2384.9% |
| May 1988 | Jun 1988 | 5 | 4.2% | -38.1% | +1766.1% |
| Jul 1988 | Nov 1991 | 173 | 73.2% | -42.4% | +1723.2% |
| May 1994 | May 1994 | 1 | 0.8% | +39.0% | +2105.3% |
| Jun 1994 | Jul 1994 | 2 | 3.9% | +58.6% | +2173.1% |
| Sep 1994 | Sep 1994 | 1 | 1.4% | +54.7% | +2063.9% |
| Nov 1999 | Apr 2000 | 22 | 22.8% | +45.2% | +837.7% |
| Jun 2000 | Jul 2000 | 1 | 1.0% | +44.7% | +775.7% |
| Jul 2002 | May 2003 | 44 | 35.0% | +15.0% | +714.5% |
| Jul 2003 | Sep 2003 | 5 | 4.6% | +24.6% | +659.2% |
| Sep 2003 | Sep 2003 | 1 | 0.1% | +23.2% | +635.7% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 2 | 5.0% | -13.5% | +469.9% |
| Jan 2008 | Nov 2009 | 95 | 35.2% | -10.3% | +448.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Jul 2020 | 17 | 18.3% | +28.4% | +90.0% |
| Aug 2020 | Oct 2020 | 8 | 11.7% | +6.5% | +56.6% |
| Dec 2020 | Mar 2021 | 14 | 11.7% | -13.2% | +51.7% |
| Aug 2021 | Mar 2022 | 31 | 17.6% | +3.0% | +51.7% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 4 | 6.1% | +15.5% | +58.8% |
| Jun 2022 | Aug 2022 | 8 | 13.2% | +14.9% | +53.3% |
| Aug 2022 | Nov 2022 | 12 | 18.9% | +6.2% | +49.2% |
| Jan 2024 | Mar 2024 | 7 | 3.3% | +30.2% | +51.5% |
| Average | 26 | — | +11.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PNW below its 200-week moving average?
No. Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW) is currently 18.1% above its 200-week moving average of $79.76. It would need to fall to $79.76 to cross below the line.
What is PNW's 200-week moving average price?
Pinnacle West Capital Corporation's 200-week moving average is $79.76 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PNW drops below its 200-week moving average?
PNW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 26 weeks on average.
Is PNW a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PNW as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 34. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 9.4%. Price-to-book is 1.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PNW compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in PNW would have grown to $1875, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 9.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. PNW has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PNW pay a dividend?
Yes. Pinnacle West Capital Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 386.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18