PM
Philip Morris International Inc. Consumer Staples - Tobacco Investor Relations →
Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) closed at $182.81 as of 2026-02-02, trading 66.2% above its 200-week moving average of $109.97. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 63.9% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 83, PM is in overbought territory.
Over the past 885 weeks of data, PM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +22.6%.
With a market cap of $284.6 billion, PM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.9%. The stock trades at -28.5x book value.
Over the past 17.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PM would have grown to $1215, compared to $1274 for the S&P 500. PM has returned 15.7% annualized vs 16.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -1.3% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: PM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying PM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +23.1% after 12 months (median +11.0%), compared to +19.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 89% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +50.0% vs +39.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
PM has crossed below its 200-week MA 9 times with an average 1-year return of +22.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2009 | Jul 2009 | 20 | 27.4% | +53.9% | +1114.8% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 2 | 1.0% | +67.2% | +766.4% |
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2015 | 3 | 1.6% | +30.5% | +306.4% |
| Aug 2015 | Sep 2015 | 1 | 2.1% | +37.7% | +298.3% |
| Apr 2018 | Oct 2018 | 26 | 11.9% | +6.0% | +225.8% |
| Nov 2018 | Feb 2019 | 14 | 24.7% | +4.2% | +209.2% |
| Apr 2019 | Dec 2019 | 38 | 17.7% | -8.4% | +203.8% |
| Jan 2020 | Feb 2020 | 1 | 2.3% | +2.6% | +200.1% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 40 | 27.8% | +9.4% | +203.1% |
| Average | 16 | — | +22.6% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02