PLD
Prologis Inc. Real Estate - Industrial REITs Investor Relations →
Prologis Inc. (PLD) closed at $134.84 as of 2026-09-18, trading 17.8% above its 200-week moving average of $114.45. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 17.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 34, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.92 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1456 weeks of data, PLD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 22 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PLD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.6%.
With a market cap of $131.1 billion, PLD is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.1%. Return on equity stands at 7.7%. The stock trades at 2.3x book value.
Over the past 28 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PLD would have grown to $1740, compared to $1123 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 10.7% vs 9.0% for the index — confirming PLD as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 6.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PLD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PLD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying PLD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +12.8% after 12 months (median +19.0%), compared to +17.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 83% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +28.3% vs +35.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PLD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices PLD would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where PLD's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-15.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $134.33 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $139.10 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $144.23 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $149.75 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $155.70 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | $0.75 | $1.11 | +48.3% |
| 2026-04-16 | $0.72 | $1.02 | +41.3% |
| 2026-01-21 | $0.68 | $1.46 | +113.5% |
| 2025-10-15 | $0.73 | $0.80 | +8.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PLD's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PLD has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +11.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1998 | May 1999 | 28 | 8.1% | -7.8% | +1640.5% |
| Aug 1999 | Mar 2000 | 30 | 10.0% | +20.1% | +1664.6% |
| Aug 2008 | Jan 2011 | 125 | 78.9% | -46.9% | +443.2% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 12 | 17.3% | +21.6% | +645.3% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 2 | 9.3% | +22.9% | +670.1% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 1 | 1.9% | +43.9% | +409.7% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 3 | 2.9% | +13.6% | +50.3% |
| Oct 2023 | Nov 2023 | 8 | 13.5% | +15.8% | +36.4% |
| Apr 2024 | Jul 2024 | 12 | 11.1% | +2.0% | +41.5% |
| Oct 2024 | Jan 2025 | 13 | 12.4% | +11.5% | +22.6% |
| Feb 2025 | Feb 2025 | 1 | 1.1% | +20.9% | +21.8% |
| Mar 2025 | Oct 2025 | 31 | 18.3% | +21.9% | +27.7% |
| Average | 22 | — | +11.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PLD below its 200-week moving average?
No. Prologis Inc. (PLD) is currently 17.8% above its 200-week moving average of $114.45. It would need to fall to $114.45 to cross below the line.
What is PLD's 200-week moving average price?
Prologis Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $114.45 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PLD drops below its 200-week moving average?
PLD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 22 weeks on average.
Is PLD a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PLD as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 34. Free cash flow yield is 4.1%. Return on equity is 7.7%. Price-to-book is 2.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PLD compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 28 years, $100 invested in PLD would have grown to $1740, compared to $1123 for the S&P 500. That's 10.7% annualized vs 9.0% for the index. PLD has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PLD pay a dividend?
Yes. Prologis Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 317.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18