PKG
Packaging Corporation of America Consumer Cyclical - Packaging & Containers Investor Relations →
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) closed at $232.77 as of 2026-09-18, trading 29.3% above its 200-week moving average of $180.02. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 29.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 54, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.14 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1342 weeks of data, PKG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times. On average, these episodes lasted 8 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PKG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +35.7%.
With a market cap of $20.7 billion, PKG is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.1%. Return on equity stands at 14.9%. The stock trades at 4.4x book value.
Over the past 25.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PKG would have grown to $3498, compared to $880 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.8% vs 8.8% for the index — confirming PKG as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 2.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PKG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PKG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying PKG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +35.1% after 12 months (median +37.0%), compared to +17.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 91% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +66.5% vs +33.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PKG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices PKG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where PKG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-21.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $224.11 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $236.50 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $250.33 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $265.89 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $283.50 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | $2.31 | $2.35 | +1.6% |
| 2026-04-22 | $2.13 | $2.40 | +12.5% |
| 2026-01-27 | $2.41 | $2.32 | -3.9% |
| 2025-10-22 | $2.82 | $2.73 | -3.1% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PKG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PKG has crossed below its 200-week MA 11 times with an average 1-year return of +35.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2005 | Oct 2005 | 3 | 6.4% | +25.0% | +2268.5% |
| Apr 2008 | Apr 2008 | 2 | 3.3% | -30.2% | +1861.8% |
| Oct 2008 | Aug 2009 | 46 | 51.8% | +19.8% | +2071.7% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 2 | 4.2% | +21.9% | +1865.7% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 5 | 8.3% | +37.2% | +1986.1% |
| Jan 2016 | Mar 2016 | 6 | 17.9% | +90.3% | +527.6% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 5.3% | +43.6% | +263.2% |
| Feb 2020 | May 2020 | 13 | 15.6% | +50.5% | +213.9% |
| Jun 2020 | Jun 2020 | 1 | 0.8% | +45.5% | +192.1% |
| Jul 2020 | Aug 2020 | 4 | 1.8% | +51.6% | +190.8% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 1.3% | +37.2% | +131.3% |
| Average | 8 | — | +35.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PKG below its 200-week moving average?
No. Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) is currently 29.3% above its 200-week moving average of $180.02. It would need to fall to $180.02 to cross below the line.
What is PKG's 200-week moving average price?
Packaging Corporation of America's 200-week moving average is $180.02 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PKG drops below its 200-week moving average?
PKG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +35.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 8 weeks on average.
Is PKG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PKG as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 54. Free cash flow yield is 2.1%. Return on equity is 14.9%. Price-to-book is 4.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PKG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 25.8 years, $100 invested in PKG would have grown to $3498, compared to $880 for the S&P 500. That's 14.8% annualized vs 8.8% for the index. PKG has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PKG pay a dividend?
Yes. Packaging Corporation of America currently pays a dividend yield of 258.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18