PKG
Packaging Corporation of America Consumer Cyclical - Packaging & Containers Investor Relations →
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) closed at $218.06 as of 2026-05-01, trading 28.1% above its 200-week moving average of $170.28. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 25.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 47, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.78 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1322 weeks of data, PKG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times. On average, these episodes lasted 8 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PKG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +35.5%.
With a market cap of $19.5 billion, PKG is a large-cap stock. The stock trades at 4.2x book value.
Over the past 25.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PKG would have grown to $3235, compared to $826 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.7% vs 8.7% for the index — confirming PKG as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 2.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PKG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PKG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying PKG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +35.2% after 12 months (median +37.0%), compared to +17.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 91% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +66.6% vs +33.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PKG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
PKG has crossed below its 200-week MA 11 times with an average 1-year return of +35.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2005 | Oct 2005 | 3 | 6.4% | +25.0% | +2090.0% |
| Apr 2008 | Apr 2008 | 2 | 3.3% | -30.2% | +1714.0% |
| Oct 2008 | Aug 2009 | 46 | 51.8% | +19.8% | +1908.1% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 2 | 4.1% | +21.9% | +1717.6% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 5 | 8.2% | +37.2% | +1829.0% |
| Jan 2016 | Mar 2016 | 6 | 17.9% | +90.3% | +480.3% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 5.2% | +42.6% | +235.8% |
| Feb 2020 | May 2020 | 13 | 15.5% | +50.5% | +190.2% |
| Jun 2020 | Jun 2020 | 1 | 0.7% | +45.5% | +170.1% |
| Jul 2020 | Aug 2020 | 4 | 1.8% | +51.6% | +168.9% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 2.3% | +36.1% | +113.9% |
| Average | 8 | — | +35.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PKG below its 200-week moving average?
No. Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) is currently 28.1% above its 200-week moving average of $170.28. It would need to fall to $170.28 to cross below the line.
What is PKG's 200-week moving average price?
Packaging Corporation of America's 200-week moving average is $170.28 as of 2026-05-01. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PKG drops below its 200-week moving average?
PKG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +35.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 8 weeks on average.
Is PKG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PKG as of 2026-05-01: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 47. Price-to-book is 4.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PKG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 25.3 years, $100 invested in PKG would have grown to $3235, compared to $826 for the S&P 500. That's 14.7% annualized vs 8.7% for the index. PKG has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PKG pay a dividend?
Yes. Packaging Corporation of America currently pays a dividend yield of 229.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-01