PKG
Packaging Corporation of America Consumer Cyclical - Packaging & Containers Investor Relations →
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) closed at $202.73 as of 2026-03-20, trading 20.7% above its 200-week moving average of $167.90. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 27.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 50, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.2x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1316 weeks of data, PKG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times. On average, these episodes lasted 8 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PKG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +35.5%.
With a market cap of $18.2 billion, PKG is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.3%. Return on equity stands at 17.2%, a solid level. The stock trades at 3.9x book value.
Over the past 25.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PKG would have grown to $3007, compared to $746 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.4% vs 8.3% for the index — confirming PKG as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 2.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PKG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PKG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying PKG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +35.2% after 12 months (median +37.0%), compared to +17.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 91% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +66.6% vs +33.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PKG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
PKG has crossed below its 200-week MA 11 times with an average 1-year return of +35.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2005 | Oct 2005 | 3 | 6.4% | +25.0% | +1936.1% |
| Apr 2008 | Apr 2008 | 2 | 3.3% | -30.2% | +1586.5% |
| Oct 2008 | Aug 2009 | 46 | 51.8% | +19.8% | +1767.0% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 2 | 4.1% | +21.9% | +1589.8% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 5 | 8.2% | +37.2% | +1693.4% |
| Jan 2016 | Mar 2016 | 6 | 17.9% | +90.3% | +439.5% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 5.2% | +42.6% | +212.2% |
| Feb 2020 | May 2020 | 13 | 15.5% | +50.5% | +169.8% |
| Jun 2020 | Jun 2020 | 1 | 0.7% | +45.5% | +151.1% |
| Jul 2020 | Aug 2020 | 4 | 1.8% | +51.6% | +150.0% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 2.3% | +36.1% | +98.8% |
| Average | 8 | — | +35.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PKG below its 200-week moving average?
No. Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) is currently 20.7% above its 200-week moving average of $167.90. It would need to fall to $167.90 to cross below the line.
What is PKG's 200-week moving average price?
Packaging Corporation of America's 200-week moving average is $167.90 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PKG drops below its 200-week moving average?
PKG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +35.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 8 weeks on average.
Is PKG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PKG as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 50. Free cash flow yield is 2.3%. Return on equity is 17.2%. Price-to-book is 3.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PKG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 25.2 years, $100 invested in PKG would have grown to $3007, compared to $746 for the S&P 500. That's 14.4% annualized vs 8.3% for the index. PKG has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PKG pay a dividend?
Yes. Packaging Corporation of America currently pays a dividend yield of 247.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20