PKG
Packaging Corporation of America Consumer Cyclical - Packaging & Containers Investor Relations →
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) closed at $238.86 as of 2026-02-02, trading 43.6% above its 200-week moving average of $166.35. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 34.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 81, PKG is in overbought territory.
Over the past 1310 weeks of data, PKG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times. On average, these episodes lasted 8 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PKG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +35.5%.
With a market cap of $21.5 billion, PKG is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 16.9%, a solid level. The stock trades at 4.5x book value.
Over the past 25.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PKG would have grown to $3523, compared to $792 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.2% vs 8.6% for the index — confirming PKG as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 2.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Growth of $100: PKG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PKG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying PKG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +35.2% after 12 months (median +37.0%), compared to +17.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 91% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +66.6% vs +33.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PKG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
PKG has crossed below its 200-week MA 11 times with an average 1-year return of +35.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2005 | Oct 2005 | 3 | 6.4% | +25.0% | +2284.9% |
| Apr 2008 | Apr 2008 | 2 | 3.3% | -30.2% | +1875.5% |
| Oct 2008 | Aug 2009 | 46 | 51.8% | +19.8% | +2086.8% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 2 | 4.1% | +21.9% | +1879.3% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 5 | 8.2% | +37.2% | +2000.6% |
| Jan 2016 | Mar 2016 | 6 | 17.9% | +90.3% | +532.0% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 5.2% | +42.6% | +265.7% |
| Feb 2020 | May 2020 | 13 | 15.5% | +50.5% | +216.0% |
| Jun 2020 | Jun 2020 | 1 | 0.7% | +45.5% | +194.2% |
| Jul 2020 | Aug 2020 | 4 | 1.8% | +51.6% | +192.8% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 2.3% | +36.1% | +132.9% |
| Average | 8 | — | +35.5% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02