PII
Polaris Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Powersports Investor Relations →
Polaris Inc. (PII) closed at $58.51 as of 2026-09-11, trading 18.0% below its 200-week moving average of $71.33. This places PII in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -12.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 43, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.05 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1986 weeks of data, PII has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PII at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +20.8%.
With a market cap of $3.3 billion, PII is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.3%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at -25.6%. The stock trades at 4.0x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PII would have grown to $4497, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.9% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming PII as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 40.3% compound annual rate, with 1 consecutive year of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PII vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PII Crosses Below the Line?
Across 32 historical episodes, buying PII when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +20.2% after 12 months (median +17.0%), compared to +7.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 65% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +43.6% vs +13.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PII crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices PII would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where PII's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-26.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $50.71 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $64.87 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $90.01 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $146.96 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $400.16 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | $0.71 | $1.97 | +176.8% |
| 2026-04-28 | $-0.40 | $0.13 | +132.3% |
| 2026-01-27 | $0.04 | $0.08 | +100.1% |
| 2025-10-28 | $0.23 | $0.41 | +79.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PII's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PII has crossed below its 200-week MA 34 times with an average 1-year return of +20.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1988 | Oct 1988 | 10 | 8.6% | +36.9% | +19601.8% |
| Nov 1988 | Jan 1989 | 8 | 6.7% | +74.0% | +20723.0% |
| Oct 1996 | Dec 1996 | 9 | 14.4% | +45.9% | +2236.2% |
| Mar 1997 | Apr 1997 | 4 | 5.1% | +66.9% | +2089.4% |
| Sep 1998 | Oct 1998 | 3 | 10.5% | +27.3% | +1653.4% |
| Feb 1999 | Mar 1999 | 3 | 1.2% | +8.7% | +1586.8% |
| Jan 2000 | Mar 2000 | 6 | 14.7% | +67.9% | +1505.3% |
| Mar 2000 | Apr 2000 | 3 | 8.7% | +54.1% | +1445.3% |
| May 2000 | May 2000 | 3 | 1.1% | +34.9% | +1434.4% |
| Jun 2000 | Jun 2000 | 1 | 2.6% | +52.6% | +1463.6% |
| Jul 2000 | Aug 2000 | 3 | 3.6% | +59.0% | +1418.6% |
| Jun 2006 | Nov 2006 | 23 | 18.0% | +25.8% | +365.1% |
| Nov 2006 | Dec 2006 | 1 | 0.3% | +4.8% | +349.3% |
| Jan 2007 | Jan 2007 | 2 | 4.1% | -8.2% | +359.9% |
| Jul 2007 | Oct 2007 | 9 | 8.9% | -2.2% | +323.9% |
| Oct 2007 | Dec 2007 | 5 | 5.8% | -26.4% | +311.3% |
| Dec 2007 | Sep 2008 | 35 | 24.4% | -26.4% | +361.8% |
| Sep 2008 | Aug 2009 | 46 | 63.4% | +0.2% | +380.5% |
| Aug 2009 | Sep 2009 | 2 | 2.6% | +57.2% | +377.9% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 2.7% | +79.7% | +379.5% |
| Oct 2015 | Oct 2015 | 1 | 1.1% | -25.7% | -27.1% |
| Nov 2015 | Oct 2017 | 102 | 38.1% | -14.0% | -24.8% |
| Apr 2018 | Apr 2018 | 1 | 2.4% | -4.5% | -27.5% |
| Jul 2018 | Jul 2018 | 1 | 1.2% | -7.9% | -27.7% |
| Sep 2018 | Apr 2019 | 28 | 27.8% | -11.7% | -25.8% |
| May 2019 | Jul 2019 | 11 | 14.6% | -15.5% | -16.7% |
| Aug 2019 | Oct 2019 | 11 | 15.6% | +18.6% | -19.7% |
| Feb 2020 | Jun 2020 | 17 | 56.9% | +34.7% | -19.9% |
| Sep 2020 | Sep 2020 | 2 | 1.4% | +36.5% | -20.8% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 0.6% | +29.3% | -21.9% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 2.9% | +17.1% | -27.6% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 5.8% | +11.4% | -29.0% |
| Oct 2023 | Jul 2026 | 145 | 63.9% | -13.0% | -31.9% |
| Jul 2026 | Ongoing | 7+ | 18.0% | Ongoing | -11.8% |
| Average | 15 | — | +20.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PII below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-11, Polaris Inc. (PII) is trading 18.0% below its 200-week moving average of $71.33. The current price is $58.51.
What is PII's 200-week moving average price?
Polaris Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $71.33 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PII drops below its 200-week moving average?
PII has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +20.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.
Is PII a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PII as of 2026-09-11: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 43. Free cash flow yield is 8.3%. Return on equity is -25.6%. Price-to-book is 4.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PII compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in PII would have grown to $4497, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That's 11.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. PII has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PII pay a dividend?
Yes. Polaris Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 465.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11