PHM
PulteGroup Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Homebuilders Investor Relations →
PulteGroup Inc. (PHM) closed at $126.47 as of 2026-07-31, trading 25.9% above its 200-week moving average of $100.41. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 28.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 49, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.07 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2371 weeks of data, PHM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PHM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +56.4%.
Return on equity stands at 14.9%.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 14.7% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PHM would have grown to $4116, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.7% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming PHM as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 46.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PHM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PHM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 27 historical episodes, buying PHM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +50.3% after 12 months (median +32.0%), compared to +18.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 85% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +76.2% vs +35.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PHM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices PHM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where PHM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $109.30 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $115.94 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $123.44 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $131.97 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $141.77 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PHM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PHM has crossed below its 200-week MA 35 times with an average 1-year return of +56.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1981 | Oct 1981 | 3 | 9.1% | +136.7% | +50599.1% |
| Oct 1981 | Nov 1981 | 2 | 14.9% | +358.3% | +54220.6% |
| Jun 1984 | Jun 1984 | 2 | 7.1% | +52.7% | +12165.9% |
| Jul 1984 | Jul 1984 | 2 | 8.8% | +60.0% | +12574.8% |
| Jul 1985 | Feb 1986 | 29 | 35.3% | -22.2% | +8882.1% |
| May 1986 | Jun 1986 | 3 | 2.1% | -33.7% | +7829.5% |
| Jun 1986 | Mar 1989 | 142 | 54.8% | -36.7% | +7707.1% |
| Dec 1989 | Jan 1991 | 58 | 39.0% | -15.9% | +12345.6% |
| Jun 1994 | Jun 1994 | 2 | 5.3% | +23.0% | +5583.2% |
| Jul 1994 | Aug 1994 | 6 | 5.5% | +17.6% | +5808.0% |
| Sep 1994 | May 1995 | 33 | 23.8% | +24.0% | +5695.5% |
| Jul 1995 | Jul 1995 | 1 | 1.3% | -2.6% | +4925.4% |
| Aug 1995 | Aug 1995 | 1 | 2.4% | +2.8% | +4949.9% |
| Mar 1996 | May 1996 | 10 | 9.0% | +22.6% | +4630.1% |
| Jun 1996 | Nov 1996 | 21 | 11.6% | +27.3% | +4545.8% |
| Apr 1997 | Apr 1997 | 1 | 0.0% | +92.5% | +4475.7% |
| Oct 1999 | Oct 1999 | 3 | 10.7% | +73.9% | +3068.4% |
| Dec 1999 | Dec 1999 | 1 | 0.0% | +118.4% | +3032.5% |
| Jan 2000 | Mar 2000 | 12 | 21.9% | +105.1% | +3042.3% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 1.0% | +65.1% | +2197.2% |
| Jul 2006 | Jul 2006 | 2 | 1.2% | -13.4% | +463.8% |
| Feb 2007 | Apr 2012 | 269 | 73.2% | -53.7% | +415.7% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 5 | 9.3% | +182.1% | +1653.1% |
| Dec 2015 | Dec 2015 | 1 | 1.2% | +10.8% | +727.8% |
| Jan 2016 | Mar 2016 | 9 | 10.5% | +18.3% | +802.2% |
| Mar 2016 | Apr 2016 | 3 | 1.9% | +33.6% | +696.9% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 3 | 2.1% | +24.8% | +682.9% |
| Jun 2016 | Jun 2016 | 1 | 0.5% | +33.5% | +672.0% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 3 | 3.1% | +65.1% | +663.9% |
| Nov 2016 | Dec 2016 | 1 | 2.6% | +88.4% | +672.3% |
| Dec 2016 | Jan 2017 | 3 | 1.8% | +84.1% | +665.6% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 1 | 4.3% | +80.1% | +537.2% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 7 | 31.1% | +150.8% | +580.8% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 7.8% | +105.3% | +261.4% |
| Sep 2022 | Nov 2022 | 8 | 7.9% | +96.6% | +232.9% |
| Average | 19 | — | +56.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PHM below its 200-week moving average?
No. PulteGroup Inc. (PHM) is currently 25.9% above its 200-week moving average of $100.41. It would need to fall to $100.41 to cross below the line.
What is PHM's 200-week moving average price?
PulteGroup Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $100.41 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PHM drops below its 200-week moving average?
PHM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +56.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is PHM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PHM as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 49. Return on equity is 14.9%. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PHM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in PHM would have grown to $4116, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 11.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. PHM has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PHM pay a dividend?
Yes. PulteGroup Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 81.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31