PHM
PulteGroup Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Homebuilders Investor Relations →
PulteGroup Inc. (PHM) closed at $119.21 as of 2026-05-01, trading 25.2% above its 200-week moving average of $95.20. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 34.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 46, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.08 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2358 weeks of data, PHM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PHM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +55.3%.
With a market cap of $22.7 billion, PHM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.5%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 16.2%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.8x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 14.7% over the past three years. PHM passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PHM would have grown to $3871, compared to $2973 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.6% vs 10.7% for the index — confirming PHM as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 46.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PHM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PHM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 26 historical episodes, buying PHM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +49.0% after 12 months (median +32.0%), compared to +17.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 85% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +76.8% vs +34.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PHM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
PHM has crossed below its 200-week MA 34 times with an average 1-year return of +55.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1981 | Oct 1981 | 3 | 9.1% | +136.7% | +47587.6% |
| Oct 1981 | Nov 1981 | 2 | 14.9% | +358.3% | +50993.9% |
| Jun 1984 | Jun 1984 | 2 | 7.1% | +52.7% | +11437.3% |
| Jul 1984 | Jul 1984 | 2 | 8.8% | +60.0% | +11821.9% |
| Jul 1985 | Feb 1986 | 29 | 35.3% | -22.2% | +8348.6% |
| May 1986 | Jun 1986 | 3 | 2.1% | -33.7% | +7358.4% |
| Jun 1986 | Mar 1989 | 142 | 54.8% | -36.7% | +7243.4% |
| Dec 1989 | Jan 1991 | 58 | 38.9% | -15.9% | +11606.3% |
| Jun 1994 | Jun 1994 | 2 | 5.3% | +23.0% | +5258.6% |
| Jul 1994 | Aug 1994 | 6 | 5.5% | +17.6% | +5457.0% |
| Sep 1994 | May 1995 | 33 | 23.8% | +24.0% | +5351.2% |
| Jul 1995 | Jul 1995 | 1 | 1.3% | -2.6% | +4626.9% |
| Aug 1995 | Aug 1995 | 1 | 2.4% | +2.8% | +4649.9% |
| Mar 1996 | May 1996 | 10 | 9.0% | +22.6% | +4349.1% |
| Jun 1996 | Nov 1996 | 21 | 11.6% | +27.3% | +4278.9% |
| Oct 1999 | Oct 1999 | 3 | 10.6% | +73.9% | +2880.2% |
| Dec 1999 | Dec 1999 | 1 | 0.2% | +118.8% | +2852.3% |
| Jan 2000 | Mar 2000 | 12 | 21.9% | +105.1% | +2855.6% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 1.1% | +65.1% | +2063.6% |
| Jul 2006 | Jul 2006 | 2 | 1.2% | -13.4% | +430.4% |
| Feb 2007 | Apr 2012 | 269 | 73.2% | -53.7% | +385.1% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 5 | 9.3% | +182.1% | +1549.0% |
| Dec 2015 | Dec 2015 | 1 | 1.2% | +10.2% | +678.6% |
| Jan 2016 | Mar 2016 | 9 | 10.4% | +18.3% | +748.6% |
| Mar 2016 | Apr 2016 | 3 | 1.9% | +33.6% | +649.6% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 3 | 2.1% | +24.8% | +636.4% |
| Jun 2016 | Jun 2016 | 1 | 0.5% | +33.5% | +626.1% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 3 | 3.0% | +65.1% | +618.6% |
| Nov 2016 | Dec 2016 | 1 | 2.6% | +88.4% | +626.4% |
| Dec 2016 | Jan 2017 | 3 | 1.8% | +84.1% | +620.2% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 1 | 4.2% | +80.1% | +499.3% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 7 | 31.0% | +150.8% | +540.4% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 7.8% | +104.9% | +240.0% |
| Sep 2022 | Nov 2022 | 8 | 7.9% | +96.2% | +213.1% |
| Average | 19 | — | +55.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PHM below its 200-week moving average?
No. PulteGroup Inc. (PHM) is currently 25.2% above its 200-week moving average of $95.20. It would need to fall to $95.20 to cross below the line.
What is PHM's 200-week moving average price?
PulteGroup Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $95.20 as of 2026-05-01. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PHM drops below its 200-week moving average?
PHM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +55.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is PHM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PHM as of 2026-05-01: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 46. Free cash flow yield is 6.5%. Return on equity is 16.2%. Price-to-book is 1.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PHM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.3 years, $100 invested in PHM would have grown to $3871, compared to $2973 for the S&P 500. That's 11.6% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. PHM has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PHM pay a dividend?
Yes. PulteGroup Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 87.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-01